Opg Power Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[azalea] 31/1/2018 08:38

If India is planning to build and sell only EV vehicles by 2030, then its got to decide NOW whether its going to build and use nuclear power, or, the only other viable energy resource of coal( which it has in abundance), to meet the demands for electricity to charge EV batteries, additional industries, power up 18,000 villages for the first time and meet the increase in population that will by 2030 could at least match, if not have outgrown that of China. By 2030, circa 144m people will have joined the work force.

If it decides to use coal, the government will need to embark on a vast modernisation of its coal mining operations, coal fired electricity generating plants, rail transport to deliver the volume of coal needed and power lines infrastructure to deliver the electricity to sub power stations across the vast country of India. Not forgetting the electrification of its railway transport system.

[andycapp1] 30/1/2018 12:48

More sellers out there! I’ve been offered all the shares I want! Aargh!!

[jailbird] 23/1/2018 22:29

Guys,

has anyone considered th eimpact of EV on the electricity

Breaking News: India –; The 3rd Largest Car Market –; Announces Only Electric Vehicles To Be Sold By 2030



India’s government just shocked the automobile and commodity marketplace.

They made the ambitious move in declaring that by 2030, all vehicles sold will be Electric Vehicles (EVâ€482;s).

The papers finalizing the policy could be signed by year end. . .

“The government has declared that India –; set to be the world’s third largest car market within five years –; will sell only electric vehicles by 2030.�

Here are some facts. . .

º India is known to be a power deficient country.

º For instance, they still produce over 90% of their electricity from coal.

º And this has made India one of the world’s most polluted places in the world.

º Many of their 1.3 billion population struggles with these problems daily.

“A recent study found that pollution in Delhi was so bad that residents would live almost six years longer if India were to meet its own air quality standards and up to nine years if the country met international benchmarks.�

Also –; did you know there are only about 5,000 Electric Vehicles on India’s roads currently? That means there will have to be over 10 million EVâ€T82;s bought just to meet the governmentâ364;™s target?

There’s no doubt that this “Only EVâ€T82;s by 2030â€� initiative is an ambitious move by the government to join the ‘alternative power’ countries.

But the real exciting part is this. . .

As we have written about, there are already growing shortages in the materials –; such as cobalt and nickel –; that are required to build and fuel Electric Vehicles.

And these shortages are occurring without the 3rd largest car market in the world being involved.

Imagine how tight supplies are going to get now that they’re also rushing in to get their hands on these critical materials?

(Source: Economic Times)

The trend is in motion.

And it is clear that the world economies are shifting from traditional gas-powered vehicles and into Electric Vehicle

[jozo] 23/1/2018 19:31

Goldbug,

I don't take issue with what you say.

And yes as you say opg are perhaps better placed than the majority of its competitors to survive a sustained period of high coal prices. I don't disagree.

I did buy back into OPG recently as I see this as a high risk recovery play, and am prepared to take that punt for the potential rewards.

However, I am acutely aware of the high debt burden. Opg should survive, while competitors might not, but at what cost for shareholders?

If OPG are able to safely manage the huge debt while the cost and tariff issues find some equilibrium, then opg should turn out to be a very good investment at these levels.

The opposite side of the coin would be much more desperate. In such a scenario OPG is not without options and should still survive, but I can't see it being pretty for shareholders who could be wiped out altogether.

I sincerely hope non of this comes to pass. If coal price stays high then tariff increases should be the inevitable outcome, but it worries me that tariffs for opg have for the last 3 years been on a slow downwards spiral. This is worrying and is clearly not sustainable even without the spike in coal. How fast will government step in? What realistic chance does opg have of increasing tariffs for commercial customers in the short term or even long term?

With the world economy firing on all cylinders, especially China, large amounts of speculative money is flowing into commodities including coal. While this bubble may burst at any time, it could still have further to run well beyond its fundamentals. This concerns me.

Equilibrium will return at some point. I sincerely hope it does before its too late for the long suffering shareholders in opg.

jozo

[andycapp1] 23/1/2018 18:24

It has the benefit of new and efficient plant however. That helps as higher PLFs and better efficiencies.

[the original goldbug] 23/1/2018 15:11

That’s because Jozo you haven’t understood or looked at the Indian power market in any depth nor understood OPG’s position within it.

If you had done, you would take back your words as about 70% of installed capacity would go belly up before them.

[jozo] 23/1/2018 12:11

Good point goldbug,So far I am fortunate to not have local competition!But if I did - it would be last ones standing that would win - ie those with the deepest pockets.Those with deepest pockets would be able to mop up all the distressed assets as they went under!I don't see opg as having this luxury at all!Jozo

[the original goldbug] 23/1/2018 11:59

Jozo what would happen to your business if all the competitors in your business also saw their cost of goods doubling?

Ponder on that before you sign up for a small role in The Crucible.

[azalea] 23/1/2018 10:12

The inevitable consequence of higher coal prices will be higher prices for electricity.

[stur7672] 22/1/2018 22:10

I wonder if the article published in The Economic Times was behind the fall today.NEW DELHI: Coal India has earned a premium of 66% from sale of coal in the spot markets so far in the current year as the state-run monopoly slashed the quantity allocated to the power sector in spot auctions while increasing supplies to non-power sectors.The premium for spot auctions went as high as 95% in the months of October and December last year, data available on the coal ministry's website showed. Power companies paid premium up to 74% during these months for getting coal in auctions.

[igoe104] 22/1/2018 14:21

Any kind of rise, it always falls back with extra interest.




one step forward, three steps back, has been a long term theme.

[andycapp1] 22/1/2018 14:14

That’d be it. Another terrible day!!

[jozo] 22/1/2018 09:01

Maybe azelea's put an order in for 50 shares and its sponging up the big sells!

[andycapp1] 22/1/2018 08:12

You had to post Flowerpothead didn't you! Soon as you say something the bid drops! Please for the love of Christ shut up!

[azalea] 20/1/2018 10:01

The drop in the Bid/Offer price was insignificant, whilst the volume was over 2m shares.

[turbocharge] 19/1/2018 14:11

Couple of big sells today

12:26:06 22.50 1,000,000 O 22.50 / 23.00
12:25:50 22.50 1,193,428 O 22.50 / 23.00

[andycapp1] 10/1/2018 20:14

Thanks Turbo, will take a look.

[turbocharge] 10/1/2018 12:05

andy, cfyn might fit you bill (not much trading volume though)

[andycapp1] 09/1/2018 23:58

Jeffian, sage advice and don’t put all your eggs in one basket esp not with something like this!! I buy stolid old ftse 100 and 250 stuff. Hate too much debt, love old well established businesses and cash is definitely king. Lurvvv lots of free cash flow. Stuff like smiths ind and Glaxo now on radar albeit cash bit tight perhaps.

[andycapp1] 09/1/2018 23:52

Yes I was rounding up as it’ll rise a bit from here to fund solar capex. But £300m or thereabouts v mkt cap of £80m odd. So lots!!

[jeffian] 09/1/2018 19:28

AndyBill, as a 'newbie' there's a lot to learn and you WILL make mistakes to start with (we all did!), so I'd suggest running some 'dummy' portfolios to start off and see how it goes before committing your life savings. As you refer to 'fundamentals' (and that's at the root of my investing style as well) I would give you 3 tips -
1) Always go to the company's published accounts (available via RNS or the company's own website) for the source of your information and never rely on stats published in financial websites or newspapers.
2) Learn to read a P&L account and Balance Sheet and
3) whatever else you do or don't do, look at the Cashflow Statement in the periodic published accounts. Accounts are presented in all sorts of ways to make them look good - EBIT, EBITDA, "adjusted", "excluding exceptionals" - but you can't disguise cash. It's either there or it's not. If the cash at the end of the period is less than the cash at the beginning, go back and look where it went. It may have gone on an acceptable use like bona fide investment or repaying debt, but on many occasions companies which claim to be 'profitable' are only so because they are hiding expenditure by capitalising it or calling it "exceptional".

Good luck!

[timbob2000] 09/1/2018 19:22

Andycapp, isn't debt now £269m?

[andybill66] 09/1/2018 18:08

Hi Andy. Thanks for that insight. I am a newbie to this and looking to learn from the knowledge and experience of others on the forums.