Opg Power Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[andycapp1] 06/12/2017 15:01

And do tell us pothead what pearls do you have on this for us? Or are you all pearled out now after spouting tosh for nigh on five years!

[azalea] 05/12/2017 09:44

iNTERIMS 13/12/2017

[turbocharge] 27/11/2017 13:09

People seem to be getting interested again for some reason. Short-term trader perhaps?

[dave4545] 23/11/2017 12:02

I've took a few again Turbo.

Just trading but I think it's well oversold at 23-23.5p, from the 30-32 level
after results.

[turbocharge] 23/11/2017 11:36

Any reason why so much buying today?

Perhaps the competence of the Emperor has been re-affirmed? Or the new Financial Controller is working hard to improve the efficiency of the civil administration?

[turbocharge] 22/11/2017 18:13

Point taken, but to be fair, it had to be built before it collapsed.

Factors that led to the fall of the western Roman Empire include "the effectiveness and numbers of the army, the health and numbers of the Roman population, the strength of the economy, the competence of the Emperor, the religious changes of the period, and the efficiency of the civil administration. Increasing pressure from barbarians outside Roman culture also contributed greatly to the collapse." Wikepedia

[the original goldbug] 22/11/2017 18:08

But at least 300 years of above average GDP growth.

[jeffian] 22/11/2017 16:38

No, it collapsed in a pile of rubble!

[turbocharge] 22/11/2017 16:31

Note to self: "Rome wasn't built in a day"

[the original goldbug] 22/11/2017 16:26

The fact is they are still making a profit at the net level.

The depreciation is broadly similar to the debt repayment schedule, so there is no need for alarm bells.

Long term we know the story about coal. The poorest countries will use it for the longest and the long term move away from coal is not a risk for OPG at this current share price.

[andycapp1] 22/11/2017 15:48

True they are low cost but the growth of low cost solar and wind where the marginal cost of fuel is zero will, in the long term, undermine them as they are inflexible and dirty. I grant you this will take time but if, in the meantime, they generate little cash then I could get a bit worried by the £300m debt pile. What I would do is to actually sell down one (Gujarat) or two of the plants that assuming they are worth more than book - which is debatable. Alternatively sell down solar to an equity partner and us the proceeds to repay debt. But I do think - perhaps on reflection - that I shouldn't be in this!! But I am and so will stick for now.

[turbocharge] 22/11/2017 14:04

Not sure if it's too late, but you might want to have a look at what's happening at VRS...

[the original goldbug] 22/11/2017 13:54

But if you are the lowest cost operator you still make money over the whole cycle.

[andycapp1] 22/11/2017 13:36

That is true enough but emphasises why this investment may never work ie no incentive for higher prices save to stop co's going bust!

[the original goldbug] 22/11/2017 12:28

Or tariffs go up. Last time that happened they went up by 40% or so.

The politicians ignore the economic reality of the producers for as long as possible, until they accept the industry needs to be profitable and you get these pent up move in prices.

[andycapp1] 22/11/2017 12:00

Think or hope that is right. Thing is (obviously) coal is the principle arbiter of earnings and free cash and so I think this is a coal proxy. Well it should be that unless they can find a way of hedging the PPAs and the coal price to squeeze out a more predictable equity return. Other thing is £300m of debt magnifies the problem at the moment.

[turbocharge] 22/11/2017 11:50

So the prospects for our holding hang on the shape of the the future coal curve, could be worse I suppose. On balance, I think I'll stay optimistic and hope med-term things will pan out much better. I've read coal demand by China is predicted to slow down, maybe that will have an impact, but might be a while in coming.

[andycapp1] 22/11/2017 11:42

I've found the coal curve which is unhelpful. One year forward has come off a little but nowhere near enough. Unsurprising that others, with better curve access than I, have been selling.

[turbocharge] 21/11/2017 16:22

Not sure if these links are of any interest:









edit: no idea how to make the http stay as http
edit2: Okay, I think I found a way

[andycapp1] 21/11/2017 13:07

well OPG was quite clear at the time. The only problem is coal has shot up in price, the Company isn't very well managed and has lots of debt and not much room to wiggle. So its gone from being reasonably interesting as a Indian power proxy to a bit of a horror as coal has gone up, the free cash flow has evaporated together with its dividend paying ability and the management has not performed well. However, we hold on in hope!!

[the oak tree] 21/11/2017 10:37

First rule in investing is don't lose money,
the secomd rule is don't forget the first rule.

Good investments tend to be quite clear at the time, IMHO

[andycapp1] 21/11/2017 09:14

Truly? I've no idea with this company!! Coal price isn't helping overly and the sentiment is terrible. So no idea!!

[the oak tree] 20/11/2017 21:40

This isnt a chart you buy. Let it find its own base level first and that means knowing you wont buy at the bottom but you'll probably see it. Safer that way.

Or as they say; don't catch a falling knife.

Good luck all, in the long term it could well be one that performs.

[turbocharge] 20/11/2017 16:05

Have thought about topping up at these prices, but insufficient coverage, analyses and news flow to help me decide.