Open Orphan Share Discussion Threads

[gregb] 01/2/2021 17:46

Having said the above, the MHRA did give approval on 14th December for the Codagenix trial which uses a live, attenuated version of Covid 19.

Looking forward to Wednesday's update from the man himself.

GLA

[gregb] 01/2/2021 17:16

I stand corrected. Sorry. Just re-read the 20th October RNS. I was getting mixed up with it stating the contract starts immediately. Later it says approval will be required

[sh0wmethemoney] 01/2/2021 17:16

You will see on the attached link the last Challenge study approved for Hvivo was May 2019 for an RSV Challenge virus.

[sh0wmethemoney] 01/2/2021 17:07

I don’t believe that is the case GregB, I am 99% sure they are yet to be given the approval to put a live Pathogen into people as of yet.

[gregb] 01/2/2021 17:00

Surely that was a given when the Government contract was awarded in October. The Characterisation Study is due to complete in May.

[sh0wmethemoney] 01/2/2021 16:37

GregB1 Feb '21 - 16:05 - 11215 of 11218
0 0 0
Sounds to me like it's part of the Characterisation Study so MHRA approval not required.

Reference the above,Approval would be required as will be the use of a live Pathogen being used.

[timberwolf3] 01/2/2021 16:21

Nick - if you read what aussportstrader wrote in his post 11212 he does mention dosing with covid.

[nigeldoug1] 01/2/2021 16:12

Sounds like the Mello discussion last week was a bit of a fiasco. Looking forward to Wednesdays presentation to throw a bit of light on the multitude of things at play.

[nickthe saint] 01/2/2021 16:11

ausportstrader/felch,

You appear to be talking about both Covid and Flu Camp - these are 2 separate trials.

Hvivo have been doing flu trials for years. And so wouldnt need any further MHRA approvals to do another one.

If you are talking Covid trials then thats different.

Cheers

NTS

[gregb] 01/2/2021 16:05

Sounds to me like it's part of the Characterisation Study so MHRA approval not required.

[aussportstrader] 01/2/2021 15:58

Yes, his screening appointment is at Whitechapel in 10 days time. They've ramped up screening in London and Manchester for 500+ screenings a week, obviously to see who is eligible for it (no antibodies etc). The actual dosing he said he was told is in March which of course we know is at the Royal Free

[gregb] 01/2/2021 15:54

CF told us that the Covid Human Challenge Studies would be carried out at the Royal Free.

[aussportstrader] 01/2/2021 15:47

Its the Whitechapel facility, screening appointment is in 10 days (seen screenshot of he confirmation). Have to take his word for it on what he was told on the phone regarding "The test starts in March but it’s just to give volunteers a small dose of covid to see find the lowest dose which causes infection."

[gregb] 01/2/2021 15:20

Asking the volunteer which facility he/she was invited to will be a clue.

[felchandbart] 01/2/2021 14:49

Someone suggesting on LSE that a volunteer's been given a date this morning by HVIVO to come in for the flu camp trial. The inference being that MHRA approval must have been given for this to take place. There may be nothing in this, but it all points towards the next piece in the jigsaw being slotted into place. Are any ear-to-the- ground investors here able to corroborate this info?

[ged5] 01/2/2021 14:43

ERGO only have 49m shares in issue and the mkt cap is only just above three times more than that of ORPH.

I seem to remember the CEO had to resign because of ill-health. He later moved to MTPH.

I have every confidence this will rise fairly soon and it might just be bigger than we think!

[12toes] 01/2/2021 14:35

Maybe ERGO didn't have anyone dumping their shares

[m5] 01/2/2021 14:15

You still cant open with IG on a spread. It's been like that for ages.

[pogue] 01/2/2021 13:45

Thanks for digging and getting that comparison very interesting info and clearly shows the way forward.

[m5] 01/2/2021 13:38

Yep, great post Ped, cheers.

[dunns_river_falls] 01/2/2021 13:33

Great post Ped. Thanks for sharing

[ped2323] 01/2/2021 13:31

Why is then that ORPH’s stock is undervalued when compared to both the market and to ERGO? I’ve speculated on here before that it’s chiefly linked to profitability i.e. visible profitability by way of official RNS declarations.

Furthermore, I’ve checked back on ERGO’s historical financials in order to map the correlation between profitability and its effect of its share price, and the results are illuminating IMO.

In January 2016 ERGO’s share price was 170p. In April 2019, over three years later, it was 167p. No profits were made (declared) in this three year period hence the share price barely moved.

However in 2019, after three years of losses, ERGO achieved profitability. It issued an RNS in May 2019 and stated it “expects revenue and EBITDA to be materially above current market expectations” The Exec Chairman said “we continue to see the benefits of our focus on improved financial performance and profitability”.

Then in July 2019 it issued another RNS fleshing out progress with some figures, and stating “we have delivered growth as a profitable and cash generative business”. In September 2019 it issued an RNS which detailed half year EBITDA of £6.5m.

As a result of the above, starting from a share price at April 2019 of 167p, the share price rose steadily through 2019 and finished at 393p at the end of 2019, all driven by RNS news about profitability.

The share price then dipped steadily over three months down to a low of 280p on the 17th March 2020.

On the 25th March 2020 the Company then issued an RNS detailing Audited full year profits of £12.5m. From this point the shares began a steep climb. In July 2020 another RNS was issued with a trading statement showing “profits would be ahead of expectations”. In September another RNS stated profits for the half year would be £9.1m.

ERGO issued another RNS just a couple of days ago on 26/1/21 stating it expected “profitability to be ahead of current market expectations”. (It’s share price has risen 17.3% in a few days on the back of this RNS announcement)

Thus from March 2020 onwards the share price climbed from 280p to 1150p (as of today). All this was RNS news driven, and the news related to profitability. That link is crystal clear I think.

The good news for ORPH share holders is that we shouldn’t have to wait for trading profits to fully feed through in order to see a decent increase in the share price. News on a wearables deal and Imutex should do that, hopefully in the next one to three months. Then from mid year, RNS news about profitability should then do the heavy lifting of the share price, IMO.

Throughout this year I expect CF will issue trading updates and interims, and I further expect each update will be more positive than the previous (just as ERGO’s were) thus ensuring the share price maintains its upward momentum over the year and into 2022.

Now that we’re profitable, the race is on to catch up ERGO and be the first to reach “a billion dollar Company”. I wouldn’t bet against it being ORPH. We’re presently behind in the race, but remember that CF has only been behind the wheel for two years. He’s moving his family home to London too, so we can reasonably expect he’ll be putting his foot to the peddle in order to
maximise all opportunities.

GLA

[ped2323] 01/2/2021 13:30

Good contract win today. All adds into profitability.

Below is a post I put on l-s-e chat last week;

On the Mello presenton last Monday ORPH was put through the rinser by 4 ‘experts’; and one of the experts referred to a document back in January 2020. I therefore looked back at CF’s online presentation from then, and noticed for the first time that the ORPH January 2020 presentation document had a note about ERGO (Ergomed Plc) at the very bottom of page 13, for comparison purposes.

CF has therefore compared ORPH to ERGO, so I’ll do the same again as they are operating in the same space, albeit there are operational differences between them. However they are also of a comparatively similar size at the moment, with both growing rapidly and both achieving profitability fairly recently (though ERGO achieved this in 2019)

All the financial information for both Companies has been taken from Stockopedia.

ERGO’s Sales for 2017, 2018, 2019 was £47.6m, £54.1m & £68.3m.
Its estimated sales for 2020 and 2021 are £86.3m & £120m.

ERGO’s Net Profit for 2017, 2018, 2019 was -£4.50m loss, -£8.9m loss and +£5.57m profit . It’s estimated net profit for 2020 and 2021 is +£12.9m profit and +£13.8m profit.

ORPH’s Sales for 2017, 2018, 2019 was £15.3m, £12.3m & £3.54m. Its estimated sales for 2020 and 2021 are £22.8m and £37.2m.

ORPH’s Net Profit for 2017, 2018, 2019 was ; -£1.47m loss, -£4.22m loss & -£5.74m loss. Its estimated net profit for 2020 and 2021 is -£6.27m loss & +£7.06m profit.

ERGO currently has a Market Cap of £536m and is currently trading with a PE ratio of 43.2 for 2020, and 36.1 on a 12 month Forecast Rolling PE ratio for 2021, according to Stockopedia’s analysis.

Here’s the interesting bit : ORPH currently has a Market Cap of £164m and is trading on a 12 month Forecast Rolling PE ratio of ONLY 5.4 for 2021 according to Stockopedia’s analysis.

NB The Stockopedia median statistics in respect of the PE ratio for the whole ‘Bio & Medical Research Sector’ is 32.6. Both ORPH and ERGO are in this sector according to Stockopedia.

Thus according to this data, ORPH could have a market cap of £230.6m (32.6 x £7.06m). Or 34.5p per share. If we use the profit forecast of £9m from ORPH’s broker Arden issued in November 2020, then we get to a market cap of £293.40m. Or 44p per share.

*And these valuations DO NOT INCLUDE potential revenues from a 3rd or 4th quarantine facility, sale of Imutex and prEP Bio assets, monetisation of infectious disease data (wearables), development of new challenge models, and potential for licensing challenge agents. (CF has guided us so far that Imutex and wearables could be worth circa £300m, possibly more)

Furthermore , according to another one of Stockopedia’s analysis tools, ORPH’s PEG (price to earnings growth ratio) is 0.1

ERGO’s PEG is 2.2

Stockopedia states “a PEG ratio of 1 is supposed to indicate that the stock is fairly priced. A ratio of between 0.5 and less than 1 is considered good. A ratio of less than 0.5 is considered excellent”. It goes on to state “The theory of PEG investing is that you should aim to buy Companies on low PEG’s of less than 1 so that you should get more growth for your buck”

Therefore ORPH’s PEG at 0.1 falls into the ‘excellentR17; band, and is in fact the most ‘excellentR17; that can be achieved within this band.

[m5] 01/2/2021 13:27

Have all you tw@ts sold then? 🤣