Open Orphan Share Discussion Threads

[marvelman] 17/11/2020 13:39

Agree Trader and I am pretty confident CF's most prioritised mission is to open that 3rd clinic in early new year..now that might not be a game changer given what he has already accomplished but certainly a change of gear

[pogue] 17/11/2020 13:37

In a previous presentation CF, pre wearables, had said the database was nearly finished with all the data they picked up in hVIVO had been added to Venn's database, making it very large, and was going to be going live before Xmas and money was going to be paid for access to it. This was the original model for ORPH if anyone was in that long ago. Regardless whether it has started selling access it is an asset and it is able to generate an income as it is without renewables and its value from the lists I have seen of databases starts at £100 million + some have gone for over a billion when the holding company went with it. Now as the data we have is far more detailed than others and for a wider variety of diseases, again unlike others that have sold, this is well worthy of the statement CF makes that is it worth more than the company he has done the research years ago and it is from that I am reading. This is not a make believe asset it has a value of £100 million + right now to ignore it as Warranty is doing shows no knowledge of the assets or values thereof that the company holds.
Its tiring pointing out what investors should know about what they are investing in. Warrenty's attitude seems to be value at zero anything you have no understanding of and done no research on then telling everyone the share is fairly valued. Jeeze I need to get a cup of coffee and relax this is doing my head in today.

[trader_3] 17/11/2020 13:28

Global Vaccine Market projected to reach $104 billion dollars by 2027

hxxps://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/industry-reports/vaccines-market-101769

An interesting report (for those in any doubt), about the future global growth of the vaccine market over the coming years.

It is worthy of note, that the majority of the projected global vaccine growth, is predominantly aimed at non covid diseases.

I think ORPH’s pipeline, will just be getting bigger and bigger.

GLA

[lazarus2010] 17/11/2020 13:19

pogue, I've read most of your posts and seen the valuations I think they were used in a valuation model at $1500 or £1500 per individual dataset. As I said, I totally agree, but have any of them as yet been monetized? Not sure they have?

[m5] 17/11/2020 13:12

Spot on davew28, now chuck us a Mars bar!!

[pogue] 17/11/2020 13:11

Lazarus
I told you research medical databases and why ORPH was set up and why hVIVO was bought and listen to some older CF interviews where he tells us that they are monetizing the database. Also look back at my posts on here where I spelt out long ago the value of the database before wearables came into view based on previous sales, not to Apple etc either. There is a market for medical databases and they go for £100s of millions this has been known since day 1 listening to Warranty who has no idea of the value of a database is not research as he clearly has done none either.

[davew28] 17/11/2020 12:56

Sorry but some of the comments on here today are inane. Warranty comes on here every time the share drops and tells us what a risk the share is and nothing is guaranteed and then he tells us he wants to buy more! He's like your typical hypocritical parent telling their kids not to eat too many sweets...you'll lose all your teeth and get fat, whilst indulging in packets of chocolate and crisps themselves! People know the risks, you spell them out every post. Do you think most people totally incapable of doing a bit of research themselves? This is AIM and most know and are aware that there is more risk and shares go up and down and nothing is guaranteed. People can read the disclaimers themselves. They don't need it to be told every post! Why don't you highlight the positive research from Proactive's Emma Ulker released yesterday:

"The investment case centres on continuing to leverage its differentiated portfolio of assets and services, including converting a sales pipeline of non-COVID-19 related services worth over £110mln."

This is the picks and shovels business that underpins the valuation. Some of the other blue sky stuff you highlight will materialise, probably most of it but we can rely on CF to extract maximum value as he is the biggest investor here and is completely aligned with shareholders and he has a history of delivering on turning around under performing businesses and capitalising on assets.

CF has done an amazing job in such a short timeframe and already transformed the company and will continue to do so IMV.

[volsung] 17/11/2020 12:48

this good share. I like. Hope it do go up though soon

[marvelman] 17/11/2020 12:45

klosters6517 Nov '20 - 12:23 - 8284 of 8285

I have been following with fascination this mornings erudite and knowledgeable debate.
Whilst I do not have the knowledge of the main contributors, I have the experience of making and losing considerable sums of money.

...as I have klosters and I am sure we are not alone...although on this BB we have some very canny contributors who certainly bring the average down :-))

[judijudi] 17/11/2020 12:43

Laz,
I can’t see how we can’t fail to at least double from here if only half the things CF keeps alluding to comes off

[lazarus2010] 17/11/2020 12:40

pogue, I totally agree that it's worth something, how much nobody knows. As I said, it's certainly not zero, but Warranty's point was that it is worth zero until it can be / is monetized, and that's what a lot of us are here for, the payouts resulting from Imutex, wearable deals etc and then going forward the potential cashcow that ORPH looks like being. Don't need any further research as I see clear undervaluation of 100-200% from here.

[klosters65] 17/11/2020 12:23

I have been following with fascination this mornings erudite and knowledgeable debate. Whilst I do not have the knowledge of the main contributors, I have the experience of making and losing considerable sums of money. So for my tuppence worth, I am confident that something of major value will happen within the next 3/4 months that will make today's share price of 22.5p a bargain. The risk of the share price going down, much more than say 2p is negligible where as I find I am totally unable to calculate the upside.

[m5] 17/11/2020 12:21

Only interested in the Daily pin mate and only take a lot of notice at the end of the days session, then you get a complete picture of the days price action. We are in a support area for sure.

[lukehold] 17/11/2020 12:07

How did the pin bar look m5? 22p has good support usually

[m5] 17/11/2020 12:06

I would say to newbies looking in, DYOR, look at the web site, see what has been achieved in a very short space of time, have a look at the contracts won, and the quality of management and the commitment they have to the business. CF has half his net worth in this business. he pays himself £140k a year. No fat Chairman here. He gets his payout when we do. No options, no pensions.

22 million in the Bank, fully booked until Xmas 2021, looking at further facilities to accommodate extra work available. Ask yourself this, after the Economies of most Countries have been decimated by this pandemic will there be more or less money going into testing viruses? Then look to see who is at the forefront of this business. Its not hard to see where this is all going.

If you think the share price will be at this level when news drops of an Imutex sale or wearables deal, good luck with that. If Imutex is listed you get 1 for 1 shares as per your ORPH holding. Timings on a wearable deal, no idea, but CF has intimated it could be worth more than the current market cap. Whilst that is speculation I tend to put more credence in his opinion than others because they are already talking to these guys, that is a fact.

On top of that we will get taken out, that will happen and has always been the plan. I think at this level we are vulnerable but I am hoping it will be next year and from a higher level of course.

As I said at the start, DYOR, its your money.

[pogue] 17/11/2020 12:06

Lazurus
do some research on the value of medical databases you are talking rubbish sorry to be so brutal but its a fact our medical database is worth a shed load without Apple etc. Better still research on the objectives of this company when it was being set up, there is a clue in the company name as the area we were going into and why.
Cant be bothered telling you as the research will do you good.

[pogue] 17/11/2020 11:56

OK Warrenty I have no idea what numbers you are using but I am 100% certain you will be proven wrong in whatever they are as listening to what has been stated as happening in the company going forward on an income basis alone more than matches the current share price never mind disposals.

[judijudi] 17/11/2020 11:37

Laz,
Thank you
It’s not me that’s ticking you down “on our other”
I tend not to do ticks be they up or down

[lazarus2010] 17/11/2020 11:33

Judi - I ticked up your post, quite right what you have said.

Seems to me some arguments above from opposite ends of the spectrum, whereas the truth lies somewhere in the middle. what Warranty is clearly saying is that anything has zero value if nobody wants it. If you're in a desert and have $100mln of gold in storage but no water, means of transport and are facing death, what is more valuable? Clearly the water!

If nobody wants to buy any of the assets, they could be worth zero. If FLU-V fails, it's worth less than zero as the cost to take thro Phase III is $100mlns. Ditto wearbales data is worth nothing until it is proven to work. Now ORPH/CF are not claiming either or any of these are worth anything, they're in negotiations to establish what somebody is prepared to pay.

So if you list out all the 'assets' and potential values of ORPH basically take a spreadsheet approach.

Asset Value = Potential Maximum Value x Risk less cost of sale.

If wearables are worth $1bln to Apple they are not going to pay $1bln and they will come up with a valuation reflective of the risk that the data is unuseable, partly useable or 100% useable. That will give them a valuation guide and then it's down to negotiations. If CF has done his own sums and comes up with $500mln as an opening value it's down to apple to meet it or counter offer. If they thought the risk of failure was 90% then they might be prepared to pay say 10% of the $500mln and so on.

As an investor we also make these calculations, so to ask why an investor/holder who believes the 'assets are worth nothing' would invest continue to hold is a bit disingenuous imho. Clearly what the investor is saying is that they're basically in the share price at zero value but there is potential hence I am prepared to risk some cash, especially if I can see that the tangible assets currently support the share price going forward.

This is exactly the same as Oil and Gas exploration companies and investing in them. The asset predicted to be in the ground has zero value until they can prove it's existence (tick, we have the data), prove they can extract the oil/gas and deliver it to market commercially (tick, we own the data and can extract it and provide it to market). The only unknown in this case is whether there is a market, and it's not like wearables are yet to be invented, therefore there is some intrinsic value more than zero but probably less than the max value we could think of (my valuation is $100mln per company to access the data and $1 per device sold as a royalty fee although could conceivably be more)

aimho dyor

[warranty] 17/11/2020 11:30

Pogue, post 8274. Thank you, at last confirmation of my point. Yes, I think Orph is fairly valued at today’s price. Everything else is potential and my last purchase was at 22p, which I considered then was fair value. The market has been buoyancy recently despite Orph’s fall but if it now retreats, Orph may fall a little further, which means I consider it undervalued and will add again. I totally accept the potential from both Immutex and the wearables and the significant effect on the share price if/when something develops. It’s obvious I’m not making myself clear so I’ll just give up and keep any concerns to myself.

[m5] 17/11/2020 11:25

BearNecessities17 Nov '20 - 09:43 - 8259 of 8273

Glad you find it interesting, thank you, its not the Holy Grail, but its helped me make money and look after my capital. As I said the other day, learn about horizontal lines of support and pin bars off that support or resistance area. It's money in the bank mate.

john henry17 Nov '20 - 11:22 - 8274 of 8275

If it does not sell its a reverse job on the NAS, we always knew that, but fair comment on the timelines. I will be interested to see what CF says on Thursday. He will have had a bit of stick about setting up the expectations of a divi, well I know he has.

[john henry] 17/11/2020 11:22

Immutex timelines continue to slip.Worth reminding Friel that if he was three months into a 6 month timeline two months ago he is no longer 3 months in but five.

[trader_3] 17/11/2020 11:16

New finnCap note: Implications of Moderna’s Early Vaccine Data

Brief finnCap note reiterating 28p target price and stating Open Orphan (& others) as 'a good buying opportunity'.

Link on Research Tree website

[wassapper] 17/11/2020 11:06

marvel - you are correct. The clear intention was to sort Imutex by Christmas either through a sale or a Nasdaq listing. Repeated in many presentations in September. That has slipped. It is no real surprise. However, whilst CF sort of mentioned "within the next three months" he also said that it may be sooner. We have to roll with this I think and wait for it to materialise. There is clear value there once separated. Meanwhile a wearables deal is the more imminent.

As for the CFO, CF did appear on one recent presentation with the CFO. He should perhaps do more as he appears like a one man band when we know that is not the case. Yes, CF may do the deals, but the hard work is actually being done by every other employee.

FWIW I think CF does too many presentations. Maybe one a month might be enough. More than enough. They need to RNS more things if commercially possible. Much better.

[malcolmmm] 17/11/2020 11:06

Perhaps warranty should take out a warranty