Open Orphan Share Discussion Threads

[m5] 16/11/2020 08:26

Plasybryn, the time scales were always 6 months and that was Christmas, so he has not hoodwinked anybody.

[plasybryn] 16/11/2020 08:23

CF tried to make out there hadn't been any slippage but if you go back to what he said mid year, he hasn't delivered on the Imutex sale in the timeframe he suggested imo. He will need to learn to be open and frank and never try and hoodwink investors who don't forget such timings.

[m5] 16/11/2020 08:22

I am not going to disagree with you Judi. I thought we would get a dip. All is rosey in the garden but there was an expectation of a divi around Christmas and it appears that is not happening so some will sell on that news. It's coming, but I think CF's enthusiasm ran away with him a little to be honest.

[judijudi] 16/11/2020 08:14

I just have

[ali47fish] 16/11/2020 08:11

nobody is explaining the sharp retrace

[judijudi] 16/11/2020 08:10

The markets hate delays be they perceived or real
Imutex sale delay prompting this mornings sell off
imho

[m5] 16/11/2020 08:06

Massive asset CF, I just hope he does not spread himself too thin. He has a massive work load and its easy to drop a few balls or burn yourself out. Man has huge energy but he is not 30.

[pierre oreilly] 16/11/2020 07:51

Disco, as 1g stated yesterday, it's C's bandwidth.Basically, he's doing the jobs of the CEO of 4/5 aim companies. It's easy to see that there are several areas in orph, each of which could be run and be successful as an independent aim company. He could delegate the business aspects to others (as he does with all the technical stuff), but he likes to do everything himself ...... And that's what I like, even if some things don't seem to progress as fast as some would like. He's secured orph's challenge study future for a massively profitable 2 years, so i expect now he can concentrate on another area of business, wearables I hope. It's really incredible how many plates he has spinning. You're not really hurting one business with orph, you're buying several businesses with a single boss. That's why orph is so incredibly cheap.

[lako42] 16/11/2020 07:48

Or a business to be used for a reversal has recently had a very big change of circumstances and the plan changed.

Patience will be rewarded.

[1gw] 16/11/2020 07:28

Nasdaq reverse of Imutex is an alternative to outright sale for cash. No point doing the reverse until they are satisfied there isn't an attractive cash deal to be done.

[ross k] 16/11/2020 01:02

Maybe because there was other pressing matters to attend. Getting contracts and clients in.

[malcolmmm] 16/11/2020 00:29

Perhaps they are waiting until a wearable deals are done and more contracts are signed in the US

[discojames] 15/11/2020 23:54

Why the wait for Nasdaq anyway? Why couldn't this have been done months ago? Why couldn't it be started tomorrow?

[troutisout] 15/11/2020 21:31

Or both, divi from wearables and Nasdaq for Imutex

[scorpio51] 15/11/2020 20:31

Great reminder as always,trader,of the multiple value streams here. By the time CF's lock in period expires in mid 2022, I believe we will indeed be handsomely rewarded for a little patience now. 2021 will bring releases of value in the form of either dividends or a Nasdaq listing for Imutex, aimho.

[readdin] 15/11/2020 16:57

This is what I got from the great presentation in short,

sign lots of contracts, taking deposits and securing future income.
licence / sell wearable data.
sell or list Imutex & prepBiopharma.
build a great balance sheet over the next 18 months or less while growing the share price by 50% every 6 months and then sell when the deal is right and the company is valued as high as possible at the time.

[trader_3] 15/11/2020 16:08

ORPH valuation – Cathal Friel “Why not get it to a billion!”

Thought I’d add to some of today’s post’s, on a simple ORPH valuation method below:

For the sake of argument, lets take finnCap’s market cap valuation of ~£185 million and target price of 28p from their Sept note (although I still believe this is a grossly conservative calculation).

The finnCap note specifically made it clear, that the following was NOT included in their valuation:-

- Non core assets i.e. Imutex & prepBiopharma ~ £100 million plus = ~ 15p

- Genomic data sale to wearables or tech company ~ £175 million plus (CF stated the genomic data alone could be worth more than the current market cap) = ~26p

So, if you believe Cathal will monetise these items in due course, you can reasonably forecast, a short to medium term conservative market cap of ~ £460 million or ~70p.


If you also consider, the planned future expansion strategy of ORPH, as follows:-

- Global Licensing Expansion of a full vaccine and antiviral pharma services company (including 3rd or 4th CHIM facilities to service current and anticipated demand)

- Future new CHIMagents challenge studies i.e.malaria, bacterial infections & Pneumococcus.

- New & recurring revenues from genomic data monetisation

- Next generation Covid CHIM vaccine & antiviral testing including head to head post Phase 3 studies, improved immunity & efficacy trials etc

- New Venn contracts with the aim of becoming the European leader in pharmacometric analysis


When collectively considering these significant potential new and recurring revenue streams, you can understand why Cathal recently forecast a £300 – 400 million market cap in the next 6 months and even mentioned a £1 billion valuation, as per below video presentation:

Forward to ~29 mins

hxxps://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/932828/open-orphan-presents-at-the-proactive-one2one-virtual-conference-932828.html

Assuming ORPH isn’t bought out by a large CRO, I therefore believe we can look forward to a share price, at multiple times more than the current price.

Personally, I’m with Cathal & aiming for ~ £1 billion = ~ £1.50 share price.

IMHO GLA

[lhoskins] 15/11/2020 15:55

Whichever way you look at it ORPH is an absolute gold mine. Wearables data, imutex, vaccine testing, joint venture opportunities, no further dilution, 2 fully booked facilities and only a matter of time before acquiring the others. What an unbelievable company with a superb man in charge. Whether parts of the company licensed, sold off or listed on NASDAQ there is no doubt CF will get us and himself the best deal possible. Safest investment on AIM.

[ross k] 15/11/2020 15:18

I don't mind them taking their time in making the right deal for the company, we certainly don't want to fire sale it. It has to carry some extra weight since the failure of the ph3 trial study by Bio.

[evilblues] 15/11/2020 14:41

It's spam mate.

[extrader] 15/11/2020 14:26

Hi daviddice1,

This links to a closed group, could you share the 'bones', pls ?

TIA

[systagenix] 15/11/2020 13:25

The Codagenix trial which has now been published is a 48 person trial. This might influence the maths. I believe it to be a 10 million value

[pierre oreilly] 15/11/2020 12:43

Many thanks Rivaldo, very helpful.

Pogue, re the t/o on challenge studies. C has stated that the qm facility maxs out at 50/60m (i think, could anyone confirm?). So 24 beds gives say 60m quid and at an average non covid challenge study of £4m (historically my guesstimate), that gives 15 challenge studies pa, or about 0.6 per bed pa or £2.05mish per bed pa). Not as bullish as your estimate, but 30m profit equates (at a ppe of 30) to £900m contribution to market cap - just from non covid testing at qm. That's bullish enough!

Ballpark obviously, depends on the size, time in the clinic etc etc. C is currently increasing prices so add 25% for next year. Covid work out currently at 10mish per study, so much more expensive - probably due to government panic, crossing the palm with silver for those who can help them out (just us!). But it establishes a min 10m for a covid study, and there are plenty going begging with nowhere to go. So covid is more like £7mish t/o (probably £6mish profit) per bed pa, and increasing.

Profit sharing 50/50 with a partner who supplies the clinics and beds and drs and nurses probably gives us for non-covid 3.5m per bed pa clear profit since pretty much zero cost to us, just our expertise. Low risk easy cash.