Open Orphan Share Discussion Threads

[trader_3] 16/11/2020 20:49

M5 - I agree.

I think ORPH's share price, has the potential to multiply several times more in the short to medium term.

Any buy out beforehand may not allow ORPH to reach it's true potential value.

IMHO

[m5] 16/11/2020 20:40

Trader_316 Nov '20 - 19:40 - 8240 of 8241

Funny you should say that. I am hearing elsewhere that some feel that is more than on the cards. Personally I hope not,not from these price levels.

[666james] 16/11/2020 19:54

A very nice dream to have Trader. You never know.

[trader_3] 16/11/2020 19:40

Is SGS in conversation to buy out ORPH?

Leading on from my previous post in relation to SGS, Cathal made another interesting comment on his last video presentation.

When asked about an ORPH buy out by a large CRO, Cathal stated “Who’s to say they’re not talking to us!”

Interestingly, SGS (who we already know are talking to ORPH in relation to their quarantine facility) have a strategy & history of frequent acquisitions, as per below:

SGS acquisitions

‘We strive to extend the range and geographic availability of our services. In addition to organic growth we actively acquire companies that strengthen our business and support our vision.’

hxxps://www.sgs.com/en/our-company/about-sgs/acquisitions

Additionally, SGS Life Sciences division seem to be a perfect fit for ORPH.

‘As the world’s leading testing, verification and certification company, we offer you decades of experience in the field of life sciences’

hxxps://www.sgs.com/en/life-sciences

SGS recent full year results, reported revenues of approximately £5.5 billion.

Maybe I’m just joining too many dots, but for a large company with deep pockets, a strong acquisition history and a complementary Life Sciences division, I just wonder if a possible buyout conversation with ORPH, may not have already begun?

IMHO

[trader_3] 16/11/2020 19:39

New Year Initial CHIM Expansion – SGS 20 bed Quarantine Facility?

ORPH are currently seeking a 3rd or 4th quarantine facility, in order to expand their CHIM service into a global full vaccine and antiviral pharma services company.

On 131120, Cathal stated:

“I hope early in the New Year we’ll have a third… we’re not going to waste shareholder money buying one or leasing one. There’s an ability now, we’re training staff, to run a multi centre and that’s where we get the real bang for the buck!”

Forward ~ 44 min

hxxps://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/update-upon-entering-a-decade-of-exponential-vaccine-development

“There’s one on the continent, we nicked most of their staff [CHIMagents]… they use to be our largest competitor, there’s conversations going on there.”

Forward ~ 53 min

hxxps://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/update-upon-entering-a-decade-of-exponential-vaccine-development

The SGS facility:

‘Our Human Challenge Unit (HCU) is embedded in our Clinical Pharmacology Unit, based in Antwerp, Belgium, and consists of a 20-bed, Biosafety or Containment Level 2-Q compliant, quarantine facility.

The quarantine unit employs leading infection control technologies, including a negative pressure, HEPA-filtering and airlock system, with individualised, en-suite compartments for infected volunteers.’

hxxps://www.sgs.be/en/life-sciences/clinical-research-services/early-phase-clinical-research-services/human-challenge-clinical-trials

Assuming Cathal can agree access to the SGS facility in the New Year, that would effectively instantly boost the CHIM services expansion by a further 50% and obviously have a similar effect on ORPH’s revenues.

Bearing in mind, Cathal is also looking to similar facilities in Australia & USA, I think next year is looking extremely promising.

IMHO

[warranty] 16/11/2020 19:35

I agree it’s nonsense disco but if it gets me more shares cheaper I’m not going to complain. I know it’s unreasonable but it’s ok by me.

[troutisout] 16/11/2020 19:15

Pennant still in play


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[discojames] 16/11/2020 19:06

BEcuase the drop is nonsense. The need for challenge studies hasn't changed and the vaccine 'news' is laughable! Pfizer vaccine is totally impractical and Modernas is a ridiculous sample size. How companies can publish this rubbish and people lap it up is beyodn me. I guess its just the desperation to return to normality. Orph would have no business without vaccine developments and yet people sell on vaccine news like it's bad news for open orphan, its actually the complete opposite.

[warranty] 16/11/2020 18:56

Don’t know why some are surprised at the drop again here. We may not be a pure Covid play but the share price shot up on Covid news so it’s hardly a surprise when it drops on it.personally I hope it goes down further so I can buy some more. It’s a no brainier longer term and I’m in no rush for the good news to come.

[terrysmith1] 16/11/2020 17:59

Bought myself another 5.5k today. Will also look to buy some more tomorrow

[m5] 16/11/2020 17:40

CP, bloody good time to get in. A lot, if not all of the risk has gone so as annoying as this drop is, its short term IMHO, and a great opportunity for some fresh faces to take advantage.

[currypasty] 16/11/2020 17:36

pgaffney, they are still fighting with paperwork from fca, andy did say interest hotting up in sector, especially after biden win.


stew, you have to wonder if no news on those others you mention, there may come a time to re-balance the portfolio? Ive been reading non stop on orph since laz tipped them (albeit at nearly 30p, ouch), and cant see much not to like.

[stewart4990] 16/11/2020 17:24

I bought in Friday, and whilst it dropped back today, after reading up on them I am comfortable, may buy another 20K tomorrow, see how my BPC and EME go.

[pgaffney] 16/11/2020 17:21

Ah Cp a good buy
Any news on Spinnaker?

[m5] 16/11/2020 16:39

Nice to see you here CP. Good luck. Exciting times here.

Been a poor day for us on a decent day for the markets. Did recover a little at the end, so we did not finish on an intra day low, that's a positive. Overall TA wise, potential support at 22p, potential resistance at 28p. We are in that channel. No real bounce today so may see a bit more weakness before we pick up. Just my opinion.

[shark fund] 16/11/2020 16:25

The market values this stock at around 1.5-1.75 next years revenue excluding pipeline contracts effectively on hold oh and the assets for disposal (imutex and database) plus the east London facility. All these new contracts at new facility are likely to be on a costs plus basis and effectively increasing operating leverage on the expert resources. So high margins will be maintained (at worst). Beautiful - great day for a cheeky top up. thank you!

[currypasty] 16/11/2020 16:19

Ive just bought 30k, not even showing..
Punters were ramping it on eme board at 30p, so hopefully 23.4 should be ok

[malcolmmm] 16/11/2020 16:10

mm are quite happily buying up stock, I can sell 100k within a second at 23.33p

[pogue] 16/11/2020 16:01

The 3rd one looks a no brainer. Basically the lab that we stole back the hVIVO employees from. They were developing challenge studies so clearly have knowledge and are interested in doing them so just push some employees and challenge studies over there and take reduced profits since we are full up anyway its just more money we would not have been able to do in reasonable time.

[m5] 16/11/2020 15:42

Hoping the next bit of news will be the securing of a third facility. I think from Fridays presentation that must be near. He even mentioned a fourth one. We know we have the work.

[malcolmmm] 16/11/2020 15:41

As Cathal says ,this is a picks and shovel company we dont produce anything. Its purely a service company with plenty of increasing work in the pipeline enough for years to come

[scorpio51] 16/11/2020 15:30

As more covid vaccines come up to and through stage 3 clinical trials, Orph is looking more and more undervalued. The potential for head to head challenge studies could be very lucrative. Watch out for multiple new contracts in 2021 and beyond.

[malcolmmm] 16/11/2020 15:13

The more vaccines the merrier, more work for ORPH .imo this is a growth and value share.

[m5] 16/11/2020 14:37

Love it if we can finish with a daily pin bar. Fingers crossed.

[toyin] 16/11/2020 14:28

No problem marvelman.