Open Orphan Share Discussion Threads

[troutisout] 17/11/2020 10:47

Surely warranty added in the previous drop to sub 21p? Or was that not cheap enough? If not what is to say warranty misses the next drop and the next.

Not sure I get the argument that a holders want a drop in share price to add more, isn't that what a trader is after?

Of course certain things aren't fully valued yet, because they have not been confirmed, that is why stock prices change and people invest on the markets. Yes some valuations may be wildly over optimistic, but accounting no value for them because they haven't sold at this time is also wrong.

[pogue] 17/11/2020 10:39

Warrenty
do you think the current share price fully values the company's future income and assets?

[warranty] 17/11/2020 10:29

Pierre, you’re not reading what I’ve said properly and I’m afraid you’re exhibiting exactly the overconfident attitude I’m talking about. I never said every part of Orph was worth nothing, of course the current contracts are income earning, I accept we have cash in the bank and I accept that should the regulators agree to the CHIMS, the companies value will be substantially higher. I also totally accept that if Immutex can be sold or floated it’s valuable and if the wearables date can be monetised, it’s valuable but all I’m saying is that none of those have yet happened and it’s prudent to just accept that these are potential not guaranteed valuations. Some on here seem to believe that it’s only a matter of time before they happen but anyone who invests regularly and more importantly, successfully, knows it’s not. I’m glad you’ve trembled your investment, so have I here and I hope to increase it by more but I’m not blind to the risks either. That’s all I’m saying just to add a note of caution to any newbies who might think this is a one way bet. It’s not and that’s all I’m trying to say.

[marvelman] 17/11/2020 10:28

Well whatever the perspective one puts on the valuation, the reason for the drop was (in my opinion and my gut's opinion) the change of timeline for imutex and dividend. CF hinted strongly that a dividend was possible this year and more importantly that imutex was targeted for Christmas. I remember quite clearly thinking (and saying) that I was looking forward to a very nice Christmas present. Now whatever has got in the way of that for me is likely to be workload. He has spread himself very thinly over various companies and as a one man band does not appear to delegate easily, I hear very little about the CFO for example but looking at his CV I am very very impressed with his capabilities and track record. It is CF that is ORPH and I accept and respect his incredible drive and care he has for his fellow shareholders. Lets be patient and let him fulfil his mission.

[m5] 17/11/2020 10:27

warranty17 Nov '20 - 09:45 - 8260 of 8262

I am sorry I don't agree with the majority of your post. If I did I would not be invested. How do you know they are unrealistic valuations? Of course we are speculating about values, that's what happens on a BB. The likes of Amazon and Apple have approached us not the other way around. The wearables side has been discussed to death you either believe there is substantial value or you don't. If they believe that this data will help them sell more watches for instance, and build their bottom line they will pay and pay well. It's business mechanics pure and simple.

It's all added value anyway. I am all for being realistic, but lets be realistic not overly pessimistic. Meantime we have a business that is fully booked out until Christmas 2021 and are in the process of getting another facility and possibly a forth.

I don't think the fall was unrelated either, but we have discussed that and its short term. I hope CF has learnt a lesson from that or as has been speculated there is another reason for a potential dividend delay. There may well be more to that than meets the eye.

edit, whilst all investment in the stock market carries a risk, the vast majority of the risk risk here was 12 months ago. We have now 22 million in the Bank and growing, we are profitable and are as busy as hell. We are in a market that is not going away any time soon. A market where investment will only increase and we are right at the forefront of it all and growing in the right way.

[judijudi] 17/11/2020 10:23

Pierre,
I never agree with a holder wanting a drop as a top up opportunity (I used to) In my opinion all holders should want a selling opportunity

But yet again you go into ultra attack mode
Can you not see that it is a very reasonable post from warranty?
Where has warranty said that our assets are “worth nothing?

No need to jump down every single persons throat who does not happen to have the huge “Rose Tints” on that your wearing

[pierre oreilly] 17/11/2020 10:09

You don't seem to understand risk/reward.
You don't seem to understand the difference between price and value
You don't seem to understand valuation models

You seem to think you get guarantees in the stock market.
You seem to think you can buy an asset at a pre-confirmation price after the value has been confirmed.
You seem to think speculation is bad, speculating on the future possible value is bad, speculating on the value of a company as opposed to its price is bad ... really, all these things are perfectly normal and essential for sm investment.

What i don't understand is why you have so much invested here, and want to buy more, if you think imutex is worth nothing, the #100m challenge study contracts are worth nothing, wearable data is worth nothing and you imply all the positive posters here giving out some excellent information are all con men. So could you tell us why you have so much invested and why you want to buy more?

By speculating, I've quadrupled my money here in 9 months, simply by doing sensibly all the things you seem to think are somehow bad. wtf? Btw, ignoring day to day price variations, i think i'll quadruple my money again in another 9 months without much difficulty and crucially, with not much risk (relatively). Good luck on getting the price down to your target, but if you do buy, i'd say you are extremely hypocritical.

[judijudi] 17/11/2020 10:02

Warranty
That’s a fair post
imho

[warranty] 17/11/2020 09:45

M5, it isn’t being negative or decamping to admit to hoping that the share price falls due to unrelated issues, so I can buy more. It’s called common sense and what investing is all about. Keep up mate and Pierre, I’m explicitly trying to highlight the risk in investing in Orph because so far, neither of Immutex or Wearables data have been attributed any value as you say because until somebody makes an offer, that’s exactly what they’ve got, zero value. Even the Covid CHIMS can’t be fully valued until the regulators authorise them.

I’m merely pointing out the possibly unrealistic valuations being bandied about on here about what they “could” be worth. It’s stated that because the likes of Google, Amazon and Apple have zillions they’ll be happy to splash the cash on the wearables data but they don’t get that rich by doing that. They will drive the hardest of bargains if they think the data is useful butin my experience, historical data actually carries questionable value, whilst current and future data might have more value. I’m not an expert so I don’t know what data they’ll want but I suspect we might hope the value is far higher than it really turns out. Immutex has been for sale for some time yet not one offer appears to have been received. Why if it’s such ground breaking science with Flu-v?

Look, I hope as much as anyone that all of Orphs possibilities work out but I’m just saying that let’s keep a little perspective and be careful not to over exaggerate the valuations, that’s all.

[bearnecessities] 17/11/2020 09:43

M5, thanks for the TA updates. Been meaning to say for a while. I take a keen interest in TA, so always good to hear other people's analysis. Understand the basics, but always learning.

[malcolmmm] 17/11/2020 09:42

The fact that Open Orphan recently won a GBP2.5 Million Contract For an Influenza Study even though tried and tested Flu vaccines have been around for years, shows that ORPH
will have plenty to do for years to come.

[666james] 17/11/2020 09:13

Thanks Bobsworth.

[m5] 17/11/2020 08:48

Getting in and around support area here, so I am expecting a bounce give or take a penny. Just my opinion, DYOR, etc. Intra day is noise, see where we are at 4.30.

[pierre oreilly] 17/11/2020 08:34

Warranty, really mate, if you don't realise that investment involves risk, then steer well clear. And if you are risk averse, don't have a covid jab if they offer you one before Christmas.You can decide to lower risk here by waiting for the announcement of a 20p special divi for one of several reasons, but it would be absolutely inane doing that because you'd have to pay 20p more between the announcement and the XD date, so there's no gain in doing that imo.Btw, 20p is (obviously) just an example. There may, or may not, be a 20p divi at some stage. It's in the future, so no one knows, we just take a view.

[pogue] 17/11/2020 08:25

Nothing is certain Warrenty but if you are talking about selling the company then you want compensation for the assets you have unless they are realized before sale. Currently the assets for selling, and there are more than Flu V and wearables that you quote, are credited as zero on the balance sheet by the share price hence I would want a price to include these, 50p is reasonable and gets us to £1 which in the end I think is a fair price considering the fact ORPH are the only CHIM company in the world and the moat to become one is expensive and takes a fair bit of time to develop the models as SGS know.

[m5] 17/11/2020 08:03

warranty16 Nov '20 - 22:23 - 8250 of 8251

"I’m not trying to deramp, or be negative"

Earlier that day............

"personally I hope it goes down further so I can buy some more"

Sorry warranty, you do as you wish, but that did make me laugh out loud!!

[malcolmmm] 16/11/2020 23:16

Bloomberg. Investors fear another Pandemic

[warranty] 16/11/2020 22:23

Pogue, there are so may could be’s and might be’s being quoted at the moment, 40p, 50p, £1 but they’re all speculative. Neither the wearables, nor a sale or float of Immutex are guaranteed yet and even the CHIM’s are dependant on regulation being given, because without that the whole thing falls down. I’m not trying to deramp, or be negative, I’m heavily invested in Orph and as hopeful as anyone for the future but until things are confirmed we should all ride back a bit on the speculation. Nothing in life is certain and certainly not in investing, as I’ve found to my cost numerous times in the past. I’m hoping to add more still myself if the price falls again but it doesn’t mean I don’t still see the potential risks there are.

[malcolmmm] 16/11/2020 22:20

Funny thing today, price drops all day but the market makers hoover up all available sells .Usually there isn't a market online in those circumstances

[eeza] 16/11/2020 21:54

Cathal poaches SGS' staff & then SGS have to buy ORPH to get their staff back.

[pogue] 16/11/2020 21:16

Well I said 50p, double current value, plus the disposals which could be upto 50p as well so £1 all in which is a nice round number. I agree the share price is too low just now but I was trying to point that out at the weekend, when I was reasonably sober, we are undervalued on challenge studies income alone.
Lets see where we go we can worry after bid is made

[m5] 16/11/2020 20:58

pogue, some are talking about 40p. We were 32p 2 weeks ago,I think that is ridiculous.
60p and you might be in with a shout but I would still prefer us to go it alone for another 6-12 months. I think we all can see the actual and the potential, the problem is so can others. share price is too low at the moment however you look at it. IMHO.

warranty16 Nov '20 - 18:56 - 8235 of 8245

We don't want the share price dropping for precisely the reasons above.

[pogue] 16/11/2020 20:53

CF wont sell unless the price is right I would expect double this on the basis he sees it doubling every year. Still probably cheap but if we get the disposals money as well I would be happy with that.