Open Orphan Share Discussion Threads

[nickthe saint] 18/11/2020 11:31

Hi Trout,

cheers for the reply. Just wondered if when cathal says he would be first up for trialling one whether that is because it is the most safe environment to be exposed ie under hospital conditions and less risky than if Pfizer suddenly stick a needle in one's self?

Was it a hvivo Flucamp or AN Other co?

[klosters65] 18/11/2020 11:29

Market-makers did not pick up many shares by dropping the bid. May well finish up today and certainly the crescendo will grow as we get closer to the Messiah giving his presentation tomorrow evening. It is what happens the following trading day that is the conundrum. On balance, on and upwards.

[davew28] 18/11/2020 11:15

troutisout,

Totally agree. Everyday the same comment. Yawn yawn. Why not sell up if you can't rationalise the risk and stick it in Premium Bonds or a Bank Account?

[troutisout] 18/11/2020 11:04

Extrader,
It's just hot air, they will get approval for the Covid CHIMs (even if it hasn't been rubber stamped yet), it's a surprise that some here actually go outside for fear of potential risks that haven't been investigated and signed off. Perhaps that explains the moniker - Warranty...

[troutisout] 18/11/2020 10:54

Nick,
I enrolled on a FluCamp one many years back, was rejected because of a high blood count just before the study (they said I must have had a mild cold). Unfortunately you cannot take what has happened in the past as a reference for now due to the sheer number of studies due to be done.

[extrader] 18/11/2020 10:51

Hi all,

I appreciate it's a little bit apples and oranges, but it seems bizarre that we seem to be

- on the one hand, taking time to debate the ethical issues surrounding deliberately exposing a few dozen healthy volunteers under controlled conditions and after informed consent to an attenuated version of the virus, with massive medical resources available in case something goes wrong; and

- on the other hand, proposing what amounts to a 'field study' reportedly including compulsory injection of the bulk of the population (65+ million)with one of a palette of rushed-through, relatively untested vaccines , whose long-term effects are as yet unknown and under which the potential for NHS overwhelm must be real.

'It's a mad world, my masters'

ATB

[pierre oreilly] 18/11/2020 10:18

mhra, independent from the gov (supposedl), scientists, academics and possibly some civil servants. Independent means you stay on the committee if you do what the gov want, and get booted off if you don't.

Warranty, I'm not sure i'd take it initially if i were in a vulnerable group - i'd likely leave it 3/6 months, but it's a balancing act. Depends a loy on circumstances.

The current situation with emergency authorisation (i.e. authorising drugs before they've finished the systems evolved over 40 years to avoid disasters like thalidomide) means the risks are higher. It's understandable, because the risks of doing nothing and carrying on with lockdowns it extremely high, many cancer patients now needlessly dying. more suicides, more depression, more people with a meaningless life etc etc), so emergency authorisation with some safeguards is fine by me if people have the choice of taking or refusing it. (btw, those collateral deaths aren't due to covid, they are due to man's actions to fight covid).

All this to me means it's obvious challenge studies are now (much) more beneficial. Even if a vaccine gets emergency authorisation, a challenge study can either add to the safety evidence, and if negative, remove the authorisation, possibly saving lives. Hopefully a positive outcome would lead many unsure whether to have it to become more confident that it's safe.

Away from covid, i'd say the pure finances for any drug having passed stage 2 makes sense to have £3/4m spent on a challenge study just to see if the mega multi year phase 3 is worth doing. The costs of the universal flu drug phase 3 failure are phenomenal, and probably will wipe out biondvax unless we come to the rescue, a la hvivo. I hope that's in progress at this very moment - so many resources going to waste if it goes belly up (look what would have been wasted if orph didn't rescue hvivo).

[malcolmmm] 18/11/2020 10:03

Well they seem happy to inject all and sundry before Xmas and want to ban anyone complaining about the safety implications so I cannot see any justifications against challenge studies.

[klosters65] 18/11/2020 09:59

Excuse my ignorance but who are the regulators exactly? Are they advisors to the government or an independent body of scientists ? What is the time frame for a decision ? The government have just signed a a meaningful contract with our Company and so surely must have some influence on the outcome.

[mikelmas10] 18/11/2020 09:59

If you're interested, the BBC article from yesterday explains the vaccines and why challenge studies can help measure their effectiveness and should be seen as complimentary. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51665497

[malcolmmm] 18/11/2020 09:57

On H/L online I can dummy sell 200K at 23.77p no problem, someone or institution is hoovering up cheap shares. Usually they are illiquid when moving down. I can see another jump end of day. Mms keeping these low filling big orders or insider buying on news perhaps.

[warranty] 18/11/2020 09:50

Agree Pierre, if I was young and fit I wouldn’t go near one of these untested vaccines because my risk from Covid has been proved to be minimal. If I were 70 plus I’d probably take it as I’m in the high risk zone but nobody should be forced by the government or media to take it. My only concern now is that with regulators rushing through these vaccines within months, will it negate the risk of CoVid CHIMS and lead to permission being rejected?

[nickthe saint] 18/11/2020 09:48

has anyone had experience of the Clinical studies that Orph do? how quick do they mobilise and spew out the results?

[malcolmmm] 17/11/2020 23:56

US investors can buy ORPH in the US over the counter OPOR.F I have tried to buy a US share on this exchange in the past with no luck.
The pink sheets are an over-the-counter market that allows companies to sell their stock without trading on a major U.S. stock exchange. The term pink sheets refers to the fact that the quotes for these listings used to appear on pink sheets of paper.

[eeza] 17/11/2020 23:29

Buffett getting into Pharma

[pierre oreilly] 17/11/2020 22:56

There are 2 camps of antivaxers imv.

The first who object to extremely safe established vaccines who are a real danger to our children especially. The second are those like me who'd refuse a rushed vaccine if offered one before sufficient testing, estimating the risk to me and others is greater than the small risk i or the wife face from covid itself.

But the two groups will be lumped together by the beeb.

[m5] 17/11/2020 21:29

Totally agree, we are being fed a load of BS on timescales.

[felchandbart] 17/11/2020 20:50

I think it's time for CF to change tack in these briefings because I think he is missing a trick. Pfizer and Moderna's claims of 90% plus effectiveness are so wide of the mark to be laughable. The lamestream media have fallen for it hook line and sinker and will come to realise over the coming months how unfounded these big pharma claims have been. More companies are sure to join the "we've got a vaccine" bandwagon" very soon and more CEOs will sell shares and get rich on the back of gullible journalism.

Vaccines are wonderful things when they are proven to work properly. But they take years, not a few poxy months, to demonstrate safety, reliability and effectiveness. But the world needs answers and we need them fast. The best, fastest way to reach that point is via human challenge studies. And that is the message that CF needs to hammer home. He should surely realise that investors at large and the lamestream media do not YET understand this - which is why the share price falls every time the next great vaccine is announced (albeit less after Moderna than Pfizer interestingly). Our share price should be rising every time we hear a half baked, short circuited proclamation that vaccine heaven is here. Because people, it ain't. The world needs to be steered towards the realisation that until pioneering companies like OO (amongst a very short shortlist) are allowed to work their magic,then the majority of people are going to be given false hope at best or made seriously ill at worst by being given spectacularly unproven vaccines. Cathal, please stand up and explain this to the uneducated and unconvinced.

[666james] 17/11/2020 20:39

Hi Extrader I was following up on your great post and it looks like I have dropped a cod there. Thanks for pointing it out.

[extrader] 17/11/2020 20:30

Hi 666james,

Don't think that's right, given date maybe pre corporate activity.

Last presentation CF says he has abt 13%, from memory?

Or maybe Cathy does ?


ATB

[666james] 17/11/2020 20:24

Extrader. I did not appreciate that the Friel family had so much skin in ORPH.

Largest shareholders

Mr Friel and his wife, Pamela Iyer, are the largest shareholders in Open Orphan, holding a combined 47.4 per cent shareholding, according to documents filed at Companies Office.

lifted from the Irish Times May 2019

[malcolmmm] 17/11/2020 19:17

Simplywallstreet value ORPH at 29p See below recent insider transactions.
Listings of ORPH-
ORPH AIM (London Stock Exchange AIM Market) Yes Ordinary Shares GB GBP Jun 2019
ORPH ISE (Irish Stock Exchange) Yes Ordinary Shares IE EUR Jun 2019
OPOR.F OTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC) Yes Ordinary Shares US USD Jun 2019
CRO DB (Deutsche Boerse AG) Yes Ordinary Shares DE EUR Jun 2019

Hedge funds don’t have many shares in Open Orphan. The company’s largest shareholder is Invesco Ltd., with ownership of 7.9%. In comparison, the second and third largest shareholders hold about 5.8% and 4.5% of the stock.

After doing some more digging, we found that the top 17 have the combined ownership of 50% in the company, suggesting that no single shareholder has significant control over the company.

RECENT INSIDER TRANSACTION'S which isnt recent as there isnt enough data available in the past 3 months

AIM:ORPH Recent Insider Transactions by Companies or Individuals
Date Value Name Entity Role Shares Max Price
14 Jan 20 BuyUK£73,560 Investec Wealth & Investment Limited Company 1,200,000 UK£0.062
02 Jan 20 BuyUK£4,600 Arden Partners plc, Asset Management Arm Company 100,000 UK£0.046
31 Dec 19 SellUK£2,750 Arden Partners plc, Asset Management Arm Company 54,187 UK£0.051
30 Dec 19 SellUK£632 Arden Partners plc, Asset Management Arm Company 11,982 UK£0.053
23 Dec 19 BuyUK£14,250 Arden Partners plc, Asset Management Arm Company 250,000 UK£0.057
19 Dec 19 BuyUK£51,740 Ciaran McNamara Individual 995,004 UK£0.052
19 Dec 19 BuyUK£5,715 Arden Partners plc, Asset Management Arm Company 100,000 UK£0.057
18 Dec 19 SellUK£10,558 Arden Partners plc, Asset Management Arm Company 185,545 UK£0.057
17 Dec 19 BuyUK£5,300 Shard Capital Partners LLP, Asset Management Arm Company 100,000 UK£0.053
17 Dec 19 BuyUK£5,200 Shard Capital Partners LLP, Asset Management Arm Company 100,000 UK£0.052
17 Dec 19 BuyUK£5,200 Shard Capital Partners LLP, Asset Management Arm Company 100,000 UK£0.052
17 Dec 19 BuyUK£20,800 Shard Capital Partners LLP, Asset Management Arm Company 400,000 UK£0.052
17 Dec 19 SellUK£1,955 Arden Partners plc, Asset Management Arm Company 34,351 UK£0.057
16 Dec 19 SellUK£13,725 Arden Partners plc, Asset Management Arm Company 250,000 UK£0.055
12 Dec 19 SellUK£15,940 Michael Hennigan Individual 300,000 UK£0.057
11 Dec 19 BuyUK£7,000 Arden Partners plc, Asset Management Arm Company 137,121 UK£0.051
11 Dec 19 SellUK£1,035 Arden Partners plc, Asset Management Arm Company 20,000 UK£0.052
10 Dec 19 BuyUK£1,642 Davy Asset Management Limited Company 30,000 UK£0.057
10 Dec 19 SellUK£1,492 Arden Partners plc, Asset Management Arm Company 29,254 UK£0.051
10 Dec 19 BuyUK£0 Arden Partners plc, Asset Management Arm Company 30,000 UK£0.057
10 Dec 19 SellUK£50,750 Miton Asset Management Limited Company 1,000,000 UK£0.051
Ownership Breakdown
Public Companies 2.0%
13,618,608 shares
Private Companies 3.7%
24,509,130 shares
Individual Insiders 13.0%
86,671,472 shares
General Public 18.6%
123,916,746 shares
Institutions

[eeza] 17/11/2020 19:05

A potential fly-in-the-ointment for Covid vaccination efficiency.