Open Orphan Share Discussion Threads

[brianp14] 10/11/2020 09:18

And 7% down on 100 trades just laughable. Well up here but MM at it again.

[m5] 10/11/2020 09:15

Stock market is all about over reactions. Yesterday was a prime example. New vaccine is good news but a long way to go and plenty of obstacles along the way.There wont be just one vaccine anyway. I just look at it pretty simply rather than getting hung up on covid. Will there be more demand for testing going forward after we have seen the destruction this pandemic has caused? Are we in prime position to take advantage of that? As stated above CS could be used to to perform head-to-head clinical trials between first generation and the eventual second generation COVID-19 vaccines.

[brianp14] 10/11/2020 09:14

Mm still frigging around with delayed trades.

[pierre oreilly] 10/11/2020 09:13

Lako, if you are in the bizz, could you give us an inside view of things like usual testing times, emergency authorisation testing times, what is the minimum qualities of a vaccines for emergency approval etc, things like that? I'd really appreciate it if you could do that - most of us here just pick up bits and bobs from the net, which isn't the best place for reliable info. tia.

[lako42] 10/11/2020 09:07

The Beeb reporting that vaccine could be in ciculation as early as December. I am sitting here as a pharmaceutical planning lead and scratching my head in all honesty.

This seems like an impossible timescale with no mention of supply chain / production timeframes.

This is heavy ramping on peoples health.

[scottishfield] 10/11/2020 08:54

Extracts FYI from new Finncap note this morning about the implications of yesterday's vaccine news:

"However, these early results do not diminish the urgent need for COVID-19 treatments and testing, which will still be required for years to come, and we outline why. We consider the price falls to stocks such as Synairgen (-39%), Avacta (-36%), genedrive (-38%), Omega Diagnostics (-25%) and Open Orphan (-9%) to offer good buying opportunities"

"Unknowns.
Full results have not been released or peer-reviewed. Multiple unknowns remain, e.g. its efficacy in certain demographics –such as the elderly who react less well to immunisation. While the vaccine may prevent illness in response to SARS-CoV-2, it is unknown whether it will prevent asymptomatic infection –whether it will prevent virus shedding, and therefore have an effect on community transmission. Duration of protection is also unknown, as are long-term safety implications.

Challenges.
Vaccine manufacturing is complex, and every batch has to be quality assured before release. This vaccine requires two doses, three weeks apart,before it can be effective. It must be stored at ultra-cold storage, below -80°C. A roll-out campaign is likely to be slow, and will require many months to cover a significant proportion of the population. Anti-vaccination movements, and general public concerns over the rapid speed of COVID-19 vaccine development also pose challenges for vaccine uptake.

Not a silver bullet.
Herd immunity would require 60-70% of the global population to be immune (billions of people). Even if a vaccine is perfectly effective, this will take years. Until then, the vast majority of the population will need to rely on treatments and testing for COVID-19. A vaccine is a major tool in the fight against this disease, but it cannot be the only one. Demand for effective treatments and convenient testing outstrips supply and should continue to do so into 2021 and beyond. Overall: a vaccine roll-out will take many months, while cases, hospitalisations and deaths continue to surge and, as such, little has changed with regards to the COVID-19 opportunity, despite this very positive news.

Stock implications.
We consider the price falls to stocks such as Synairgen (-39%), Avacta (-36%), genedrive (-38%), Omega Diagnostics (-25%) and Open Orphan (-9%) to offer good buying opportunities....Avacta (TP 310p) and genedrive (TP U/R): there is a continued need for rapid and convenient tests. Omega Diagnostics (TP U/R): antibody tests could be used to confirm immunity. Open Orphan (TP 28p): challenge studies could be used to perform head-to-head clinical trials between first generation and the eventual second generation COVID-19 vaccines."

[ironman22] 10/11/2020 08:53

Chelsea. CF has told us the government contract is 40 Million he has also told us that their are and I quote "6 or 7" companies queuing up to do Covid challenge studies at 10 Million each. Granted they have not been signed yet but this is what CF himself is anticipating. All this adds up to in excess of 100 Million. Now if this is only 10% of the revenue i'd like some information about where the other 900 Million pounds is coming from because in my view, at present Covid related work accounts for a hell of a lot more than 10% of the revenue.

[lako42] 10/11/2020 08:51

The one thing that concerns (annoys me) is the fact that this is being lobbed in with all of those speculative Covid plays. It clearly is way more than that but it seems we are going to have to suffer ridiculous volatility for absolutely no reason.

We have done well to avoid the fickle price action on the way up, it seems very unfair that we should have to suffer it on the way down.

[pogue] 10/11/2020 08:47

I dont believe a challenge study replaces a phase 3 study you need more cases to assess the vaccine's safety and effects on different age groups etc, a challenge study however basically tells you if the vaccine will work which is useful to know before paying out for a phase 3 study which is expensive and difficult to run as you need thousands of volunteers in CV19 hit areas to inject as they have to come into contact with the virus naturally unlike challenge studies. Finding such areas will get difficult as well going forward out of winter.
If anyone more connected to the medical side can clarify, the above is just what I found last time I looked a while ago.

[judijudi] 10/11/2020 08:46

So is this new Vaccine being rolled out without a challenge study?

[pierre oreilly] 10/11/2020 08:45

Everything over the last couple of days is very positive for Orph. It's just that it's crazily associated with the million to one covid longshots which quadrupled in a day on pure hype.

[malcolmmm] 10/11/2020 08:41

Seems to me that producing a number vaccines is good for ORPH there must be a better one to be developed , my fridge is -19c , -75c is seriously cold and will cause serious problems.Pfizer makes viagra so at least if their vaccine doent work you can die with a hardon

[pierre oreilly] 10/11/2020 08:39

I don't think many like to think about the -80C storage. It could have slipped out that it needs -274C storage and hardly anyone would bat an eyelid. Most would still assume next week everything will be back to normal - because that's what they want to happen. All encouraged by the beeb of course, jolly hockey sticks and all that, look on the bright side. I hope as much as anyone a vaccine comes quickly so i can get back sailing the world in luxury. But i don't want a jab to kill me, or lay me up in the ship's hospital for the whole cruise, or destroy even more of my brain cells.

If it weren't for the pandemic, this vaccine (or one at a similar stage) would be 6/7 years away from approval. Sure it should get fast tracked, but it's got to be safer than not using it, with high confidence. Billions at stake in the pharma industry means pharma companies are often quite lax in their science.

[holdbucket] 10/11/2020 08:37

B14 I'm watching that CINE story and what has been happening for 2+ weeks is incredible. I hope PI's don't get shafted by the same stock again but.....

[malcolmmm] 10/11/2020 08:34

I should imagine that the Pfizer need controlled challenge studies ,perhaps OPRH is going to do them in the US as no one else does that and they have the expertise needed

[brianp14] 10/11/2020 08:28

Holy moly. No wonder I use the LSE board (if it works). Yesterday was pure over reaction. Look at CINE just laughable. The same applies to Covid related stocks. MMs did a royal rogering yesterday & have created the volatility the chuffers thrive on. Nowt changed really timescale wise across the piece.Pfizer vaccine requires storing at -80. Just think about that!

[m5] 10/11/2020 08:27

Can we ignore Hamid please. As far as support levels he does not have a clue anyway.

[lako42] 10/11/2020 08:24

The BBC are losing their minds over this vaccine this morning.

I haven't heard one word of caution regarding the various obstacles in front of getting the vaccine out.

Its all just unchecked lovelyness and rainbows.

Don't panic here, the company is not a Covid play, hence the reason we never shot up 400% in one day just because.

[holdbucket] 10/11/2020 08:23

Added a few this morning but it wasn't easy and now the dip is reversing (quite rightly). Holding plently well below todays price but have added along the way as the story/facts get better AND BETTER.

[judijudi] 10/11/2020 08:22

Will this one not be on a challenge study?

[malcolmmm] 10/11/2020 08:19

News Professor Allan Fin on 5live we need some challenges on other cronid vaccines , one vaccine isnt enough as other vaccines could be better. We need a number of vaccines some of which are in advanced stages of development

[pierre oreilly] 10/11/2020 08:18

Hang on hamid - you said 6 weeks ago this was going to 15p. Now you hope it doesn't?

You got burnt last time, let's hope you do again this time.

[hamid1970] 10/11/2020 08:14

On the slide again hope it does not drop below 15p. Appear to be very little support this AM

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