One Media Ip Share Discussion Threads

[yump] 19/7/2022 18:43

Roll on these TCAT contracts.

Presumably previously (for quite a few years) the major labels have just been tinkering with TCAT and now OMIP are saying its time to formalise things - or TCAT was just embryonic.

[harrogate] 19/7/2022 18:24

Thanks for the link. I guess the question we all have is what is going to be the catalyst for a rerating. I thought it might be the publication of the value of the catalogues but while that gave a bit of a temporary boost it didn't really last. Without that rerating as we know we can't raise equity to fund content acquisition. I think the team have done a lot right in last 6 months

[spin doctor] 19/7/2022 18:10

Seven minutes of MI on Proactive. Very chipper.

[spin doctor] 19/7/2022 10:45

Harrogate yes you are correct. Minimal direct impact of CRB ruling, although it is an indication more generally of the slow trend towards more equitable distribution arrangements that will benefit all rights holders.

I note that usd/gbp averaged 1.33 during the half year. Sigt currency tailwind this half year....

Good housekeeping noted. Lovely margins. Operational leverage kicking in.

[harrogate] 19/7/2022 09:58

Indeed but that ruling was about composer rights which SONG has a lot of while we have more recording rights. Hence the 4 year backlog payment not being material. Clearly Good news though

[clocktower] 19/7/2022 09:40

The extra royalties from the USA will start to make a positive impact going forward.

[harrogate] 19/7/2022 08:34

Lots to like on there I think and much more favourable exchange rate in H2. Trend looks good on revenues with general streaming growth and recent U.S. ruling. But they really need to get the TCAT funding sorted. Impact on earnings/cash flow would be significant and we need to see what they can do with it. Clearly not been that easy to get funding away in current market. Cheap but what will make it less cheap ?

[spin doctor] 14/7/2022 11:08

Just TCAT that needs to be 'dealt with' IMO.

[spin doctor] 14/7/2022 11:07

And the RHM factsheet:

Market Update
Looking into 2022 and beyond, societies and publishers are expected to see a positive upswing in royalty collections and distributions as the world is reopening post Covid lockdowns. Despite setbacks due to the pandemic in 2021 causing a slower recovery than initially expected, concert goers are eager to get back to shows. According to a June 2021 MarketCast survey in the US, it showed that about half of all music fans are more willing to attend live music events than they were before the pandemic. In the June 2022 publication of Music in the Air, Goldman Sachs raised their global music industry revenue forecast to reflect a more positive view on pricing and revenue from emerging platforms. This growth potential from new platforms is expected to more than offset the near-term impact of increased inflation and a weaker macro environment that we have seen in the first half of 2022. It is expected that consumer spend on music will remain resilient despite the recent market volatility. Notably, Goldman Sachs equity research analysts raised the forecasted CAGR of 2021- 2030E streaming revenue to 12%, up from 11% prior.1 On 1 July 2022, the Copyright Royalty Board (CRB) reaffirmed its decision to increase the headline rate paid to songwriters in the United States from on-demand streaming services. The backdated rate increase from 10.5% to 15.1% (in incremental, annualised steps) for the five-year period from 2018-2022 is the largest rate increase in the history of the CRB.

[spin doctor] 14/7/2022 11:03

The gloom is pervasive, but behind the delusionally dark clouds...

Hippgnosis report today:
-- NAV growth driven by a 9.5% like-for-like value uplift across the Portfolio to $2.7 billion, as determined by Portfolio Independent Valuer, as a result of:
o Strong like for like Streaming growth of 19.4% in the second half of 2021, compared to the first half of 2021, in excess of the Valuer's expectations, resulting in an increase in expected future Streaming revenues
o Increase in expected revenues due from emerging technology platforms as material revenues start to be paid into publishers and record companies

[spin doctor] 12/7/2022 12:28

Steady drip drip of sales.

Meanwhile,... OMIP identified as one of only five stocks across Main market and AIM that meet all five of Slater's 'Zulu' criteria.


I guess an IC tip will drop at some point followed by a brief feeding frenzy.

[spin doctor] 11/7/2022 16:52

Sixpence (or so) again. Sellers either dying of boredom or lacking confidence in deals/TCATexit/macrofactors/whatever.

I've taken somemore. Noting USD/GBP now 1.19, the USA CRB determination as part of a (slow) macrotrend towards more equitable music rights distributions, and of course my ongoing conviction of the quality and integrity of the management team.

Heading off for a snooze.

[harrogate] 04/7/2022 07:11

Would hope that OMIP would put out an RNS on this issue - just as SONG have done today. Looks significant to me both for a one off credit and then higher royalty going toward. Would be nice to understand the economics here but can't be a negative !

[spin doctor] 03/7/2022 14:18

Yes. And meanwhile:

[microscope] 29/6/2022 13:36

Interesting snippet in this, that getting Floyd to agree to the final sale's terms might be an issue given the decades long running dispute between Waters and Gilmour.

[spin doctor] 14/6/2022 20:04

GBP/USD sub 1.2 Last year averaged 1.375 Just sayin'.

Successful TCAT fundraise, and the cash generation will look fantastic.

This could turn very quickly. Not at all convinced Mx need to anything differently.

[microscope] 14/6/2022 13:46

And your last sentence Harrogate explains why minority shareholders can wield so much power in illiquid stocksThey literally can sell for months or longer and destroy the price, which ironically then makes their argument appear to have validity, that management aren't delivering for shareholders.So MI and his team are then in a pickle, through no fault of their own. The only conceivable good that can come from it would be action to sort out the TCAT situation more swiftly.Of course we still have the Floyd offer to conclude and that has the potential to change everything for the better.

[harrogate] 14/6/2022 13:11

I suspect it is the other way round

[yump] 14/6/2022 10:17

I think there might be an “owners problem”. Ie TCAT funding might require BOD to let go, but they’ve been at it for so long, they’re reluctant.

[tiltonboy] 14/6/2022 08:32

Stuck between a rock and a hard place as they say.

[harrogate] 14/6/2022 07:30

I agree we don't want to overpay but we have got ourselves into a bit of a bind really. Can't raise money at anything like this price when we are buying at 12 x and using 6 c money - massive value destruction and dilution. We can't seem to work out how to get TCAT motoring and use its first mover advantage. So you can see why the shareholders might be restless. The last thing we want is to have 2 massive sellers for the next many months and even years dragging on the share price.

[yump] 13/6/2022 23:40

Institutional pressure to do what I wonder ?

Go along the lines of other royalty buyers, raising squillions to (probably) overpay for rights ?

[spin doctor] 13/6/2022 23:26

A powerful tweet from CEO Michael Infante:
"IMHO our value is in our knowledge of the market and not bowing to institutional pressure. This is a very young market. Careful navigation is of the most importance as there are minefields out there with sirens calling firms onto the rocks."

Clearly this is a reference to recent AGM voting. Credit to the OMIP team for resisting what they clearly felt was pressure to move in an unhelpful direction.
IMV they are highly capable in the monetisation of digital music rights, highly principled, and resolute in their approach to delivering decent returns whilst moderating risk.

Whatever the issue that drove some institutions to dissent, the OMIP team get great respect from me for having strength of conviction and character.

The voting against remuneration was bizarre. Total remuneration package for AIM CEOs averages close to £1M, compared to MI on 180k or so. The packages for the remainder of the Board are proportionate to that, with no bonuses paid. In summary, unremarkable, and fully justified in my opinion. BGF's vote (10M shares) against the remuneration report therefore strikes me as a petulant and tangential aside to a more fundamental source of dissent. Unhelpful.

Interesting also that the 'dissenters' were not supported by the other significant institutional shareholders (Gresham/Baronsmead and Amati AIM), or by any other material holders. Presumably Cannacord/BGF knew of that lack of support in advance but nevertheless progressed to a disruptive contrary vote. Difficult to see how that is in their investors' interests.

I remain a happy holder and will add on weakness or positive news.

[harrogate] 13/6/2022 10:00

A good bit of wishful thinking is never a bad thing. Clearly there is an issue with the TCAT funding of some sort given it is 6 months late - it would be a supreme optimist who assumed that was because the values being discussed are 2 low ! I do agree though that it is hard to see the current strategy moving the share price and MI is beginning to recognise that

[yump] 13/6/2022 09:12

Microscope

I reckon you might be right about a potential bid. Perhaps there have been informal approaches that have been rejected because MI wants to complete his plans for OMIP, having been there for such a long time and that is just too long a process for some investors. Perhaps there have been offers for TCAT that would take it completely out of his control and he’d like to still be part of it in some form.