| Date | Subject |
|---|
21/11/2019
16:00 | harrogate: As a long term holder here it has been a long haul. I am happy that this has come out and been resolved. I didn't like the expensive debt but did participate in the placing as I thought the big hitters would bring content. It seems they didn't so it is back to plan A. I would be amazed if the content they have bought is not working out and I do think they will issue an update soon when the directors get on board. The content they have bought this year never mind the old stuff is worth more than the current share price. I am ok to hold on for another few years as I think value will come out. Would be nice to see the share overhang places with a decent institution
|
20/11/2019
08:30 | yump: I suppose theyve still got the money to buy rights, but the old ‘strategic review’ must mean the strategy is not working.
‘Strategic review’ always means 30%+ off the share price.
My take is that as I wondered a while ago, they have been late to the rights buying market and are paying too much, so the returns are not enough.
|
28/4/2019
08:28 | glasshalfull: Good morning guys,
I’m currently compiling a write-up on the constituents in my portfolio. I’ve enclosed a link to my post on Twitter as unable to copy over the table.
HTTPS://twitter.com/glasshalfull1/status/1122397396716093440?s=12
I’d also like to draw your attention to the presentation that OMIP have put up on their web site. I enjoyed a call with the Chairman & CEO recently. Both were comfortable with the pipeline of acquisitions. They reiterated that each catalogue & potential acquisition different & that it’s up to OMIP to exploit each by sweating the assets.
HTTP://www.newomip.bitnamiapp.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/190418-One-Media-iP-Company-Information.pdf
(2) OMIP (One Media iP) - War Chest for acquisitions
* Share Price 5.5p
* M/Cap £7.5m
* Enterprise Value £3.5m (£4m NET CASH on the balance sheet)
* Shares in Issue 135.6m
* Stock Rank (Contrarian) 51 (Quality 83 / Value 71 / Momentum 2)
Michael Infante, CEO had the foresight in the early 2000's to recognise that digital media was the new growth area as CD sales plateaued. He positioned the company to take advantage to these shifting trends in consumer behaviour during the next decade. They grew earnings considerably between 2009 - 2014 via digital downloads after amassing a catalogue of over 250,000 music tracks.
I was fortunate to enjoy the ride & the share price rose from 1.5p to 20p in this timeframe, a 13x bagger, BUT the market changed once more & the download market fell off a cliff with the the new streaming model unable to pick up the slack until 2017-18 when an inflexion point was reached. The share price consequently retraced to the current 5.5p level. During this rollercoaster ride OMIP have remained profitable & retained a net cash position throughout. In FY18 Michael Infante implemented the next planned phase of growth through the heavyweight appointments of Lord Michael Grade & Ivan Dunleavy (former CEO of Pinewood Studios) & through a mixture of loan notes & equity raised £8.9m gross proceeds at 6p in Sept 18 to embark on the acquisition of music publishing rights, artist recordings and songwriters’ rights.
FY18 results were released earlier this month & confirmed that OMIP increased op profit +94% to £639k & finished the period with £4m net cash...so they are only on an EV of £3.5m with a WAR CHEST for acquisitions. IMHO the market are attributing negligible value to their content library iP which they’ve spent £6.2m to date. They also have the £4m net cash plus a few other growth opportunities. So we have: -
* Music Catalogue of +250,000 tracks including “Points Classic” catalogue (acquired for $1.6m in 2014) of 5,000 classical recordings which allows synchronisation deals with film, tv & advert productions
* Video catalogue of 10,000 hours content & 20 YouTube channels to monetise
* Content Policing Software - Technical Copyright Analysis Tool (“TCAT") - which has now been taken up by 2 x of the major record labels to utilise the product as SaaS. This is a tool for "content policing", protecting ownership rights across the multiple digital platforms & I envisage they’ll look to expand this into other markets
* Men & Motors - OMIP own this property which provided 43 million minutes of viewing in 2018 & has over 114k subscribers
Brokers Panmure have reinstated coverage with a 10p price target or +82% upside on the current share price. Panmure rebased their previous EPS targets on the back of the Sept 2018 placing as OMIP are only now starting to deploy proceeds, spending a total of $1.6m combined so far on a Spanish record label which is strong in Latin American territories & an American country music songwriters composition catalogue.
The forecasts below therefore have plenty opportunity for upgrades as they deploy the monies raised, while they also have a further £4.1m of unused BGF facilities to deploy.
Yr end Oct Revenue Adj PBT Dil EPS
2017 £2.34m £298k 0.35p
2018 £2.7m £487k (+63%) 0.4p (+14%)
2019e £3.2m £600k (+23%) 0.3p (Analyst current low ball EPS forecast as company still to deploy most of placing monies & sitting on £4m net cash)
2020e £3.7m £900k (+50%) 0.4p (+33%)
2021e £4.1m £1.1m (+22%) 0.5p (+25%)
OMIP are now benefitting from the growth in music streaming across the globe & I believe that once they have deployed the £7.6m cash at their disposal we will observe operational gearing kicking in. Simply put, the business model provides good visibility on revenues as they collect a small % every time one of their songs is streamed & further acquisitions should provide the opportunity for material upgrades in the PBT & EPS forecasts once the cash is deployed. Therefore the risk/ reward proposition is skewed to the upside in my opinion.
The share price soared once before ... & I reckon there are a number of drivers to give it a good kick forward 👟⚽A039; once again!
Kind regards,
GHF
|
10/1/2019
12:50 | glasshalfull: Afternoon yump
Prompted to log in having received an email alert to a post on the OMIP thread. An unusual occurrence. Many thanks for the link.
Share price down (-50%) since the end August 2018. Gone from 10p level to 5p today...with the 6p placing responsible for a (-40%) retrace, with macro events, lack of newsflow & illiquidity in the market during December responsible from the most recent fall from the 6p area to 5p.
I had a short call with MI at the turn of the year. Like yourself I expected they probably had deals lined up following the September raise, & in light of the team attending to brief investors at Mello London.
Anyway, I was reassured that MI & team have not felt the need to go after any deal simply to have something newsworthy. A deal for deals sake! He also understood the frustration investors have as essentially save for a short but positive trading statement there has been radio silence for the last few months.
AIU they have made approaches to acquire but he stressed they will not pay over the odds. I’ve spoken with MI for neigh on 9 years & he always stressed paying a fair price throughout...and I don’t contend it will be any different this time.
He also mentioned that they are working on other projects & expects there to be a ramp up in newsflow in 2019.
When I last looked the m/cap was c.£6.5m & I envisage they’ll have c.£4m net cash...so existing business valued at peanuts (EV £2.5m) despite back on a growth trajectory & delivering positive cashflow as the growth in music streaming will have benefitted their library of > 250,000 tracks. They indicated positive trading which was in-line. This should equate to delivery of £600k PBT for year ended Oct 2018 before costs of the placing.
Also worth reiterating that Panmure previously had £900k pencilled in for 2019 prior to the September fundraise.
I’ve picked up stock between 4.1p-5.5p in recent months...not all the reported trades are sales & often stock available at the bid price.
In summary, I don’t believe MI would have made a play for the big-time & diluted himself significantly from 50% a few years ago to c.20% unless confident in the opportunity.
I originally invested here when the shares were 1p on PLUS markets & they rose to the heady heights of 20p shortly after the move to AIM. Yes, last few years have been v difficult with the tap to the download market turned off overnight BUT the continued growth of streaming, development of TCAT & with considerable cash in the bank & available to draw down, will hopefully find OMIP developing annuity style revenues via acquisitions in the composer/ music publishing market to augment the performance rights they currently have.
We’ll all be in a better position to assess the strategy when they announce the first acquisition(s). As for timeframe, well I’d hope to hear some news prior to results in March.
Disclosure
As usual, talking my own book.
I own >1% equity
Kind regards,
GHF
|
29/11/2018
20:36 | glasshalfull: OMIP
Evening folks. Whirlwind few days.
Mello London was an overwhelming success with the investment community appreciative of “Davidosh” & excellent team in organising such a content rich event with fantastic speakers, presentations & exhibitors. There was something for every investor.
Michael Infante & team attended the event to provide a presentation but unfortunately they weren’t running a stand. Perhaps something to consider next time, as I witnessed a better appreciation in those companies that did so. The APC stand, for example, demonstrated products, had their CEO & a Divisional head engage with the investors who then left with Mojito, Kir Royale or Gin lollipops. This resulted in a jam packed presentation, considerable social media comment & a share price +8% in the last few days. Photo of the stand available via the link below.
HTTPS://twitter.com/glasshalfull1/status/1067359766975053824?s=12
I volunteered to assist at Mello (it’s run by investors) so only had time for a quick snap of Michael’s presentation which I posted on Twitter. (See link below)
HTTPS://twitter.com/glasshalfull1/status/1067111470494871552?s=12
That said, Michael delivered an excellent presentation covering the evolution of the company & rationale behind the recent placing. He also explained that the composer/ music publishing market is fragmented & great opportunity for OMIP to acquire in this space to augment the performance rights they currently have. There’s more info regarding the various opportunities contained in the placing document
Overall, an assured presentation & I’m certain this is first of many steps at improving investor engagement as the company ramps up in scale. I’ve suggested the use of PI World who have been excellent in providing investors with company presentations & updates on results or major announcements as a means to get the story out. The company are certainly receptive to the idea.
As for shareprice, I wouldn’t read anything into the tick down. I simply put it down to poor markets & a drift in the absence of news. There have only been a few share trades recently & OMIP are certainly not alone in observing a decline in the share price. The first news of acquisitions will offer the opportunity to evaluate the new strategy & determine the multiple they are likely to pay for rights.
Kind regards,
GHF
|
15/10/2018
17:48 | microscope: They talk in depth about the acquisition strategy in the placing document and because it's something that does interest me as to how the industry works I had a decent read of it.
The section headed 'acquisition of music publishing rights and songwriters’ rights' is the most relevant one i think about how they plan to deal with the different facets of managers/artists etc
https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/one-media-OMIP/share-news/One-Media-iP-Group-Plc-Proposed-Fundraise-of-a-m/78169465
|
25/9/2018
17:17 | nextlink: Having held since Ofex days and digested recent announcements I
wonder where we are heading.
At the beginning of the year we saw a welcome recovery in the sp
with an indication of significant growth in the years ahead.
At around the same time Michael Grade joined as a Director at a
very favorable share price.
The best thing to happen to ITV in 2009 was Grade leaving, it's share price says it all.
When he left it was around 30 pence. peaking at 280 pence in 2015 and
today it is still around 150 pence.
Now at the end of August we see a placing at 6 pence, loan notes and options
galore at 6 pence.
It is the way of the world, but it looks as if most private investors have
been thrown under the bus.
I will hold what i have and see where this goes, I may be pleasantly surprised,
given the war chest they have amassed.
I just hope Michael Grade doesn't do an ITV on One Media, a company that has
until now always been mindful of it's shareholders, whatever their stake.
|
08/9/2018
13:47 | glasshalfull: Afternoon microscope & yump.
Thanks for your updates. I’ve a few minutes so opportunity for quick response.
Yump - You pose a good query. V technical & beyond my ability to answer. With downloads you’ll be well aware that once the track was purchased that was it, a one time only sale. I know they have tried various methods/ algorithms with regard the track ability of streaming, but far more complex to tie down. Think beneficial for you to contact the One Media team who are approachable & im sure they’d be happy to answer your queries & provide a better response to this ham-fisted effort.
Microscope - I’m still a PI with excellent brokers. I engage more frequently with the wider investment community these days & perhaps that’s why you think I may be an institutional based investor.
In respect of the book-build, my brokers contacted Panmure and placed an order on my behalf. I don’t wish to be too specific on a public forum but happy to confirm it was for a material amount of stock, in excess of 500k but below 2 million shares. If an investor was looking to invest a v small amount in such an opportunity or uses an online platform for their broker, then they wouldn’t get the opportunity in the bookbuild. That’s the value of establishing an account with good brokers.
In respect of any lock-in, existing & new investors are simply subscribing for shares that will be issued on 24th/ 25th Sept from memory. There is no lock-in for most placings or issues - save for the mention in the RNS in respect of NineLives who are subscribing for £125k of stock & are subject to a 12 month orderly market arrangement following admission.
In theory an existing investor could slice their holding if they’ve obtained shares in the bookbuild. To clarify, I have not sold a single share in OMIP recently, but instead believe it an excellent opportunity to add to my existing holding & I’d also imagine that I would not be invited to take part in such opportunities if I acted in the practice of selling down an existing holding on these circumstances.
As for dumping shares if/when they approach 10p...perhaps one could look at it another way... new/existing holders may look to ADD to their holdings if MI & team are delivering.
I try & not overcomplicate things. If OMIP generate the earnings growth that we’ve always hoped, then the share price will take care of itself.
Hope this assists.
Kind regards,
GHF
|
07/9/2018
18:49 | microscope: Fascinating read GHF, as ever your posts encourage interest and reaction. Not least of which is whether you are yourself a pi and/or institutional based investor these days. I know you will understand the potential frustration of long term holders who were not able to participate in the funding, while some it seems were.I don't mean that in any way as a criticism of yourself - as you say you bought higher. too. Knowing me I might have missed it, but is there any lock-in? It does look as though a few sales may be people cashing in previously held shares at higher levels to fund their purchases. I have many other thoughts and questions about likely future direction which I will probably return to if time permits, but for now suspect that gravity being what it is, may guide the share price ever closer to the placing price as investors feel reluctant to pay a premium to the 'better-informed' investors.I am intrigued for certain, but need to delve a lot deeper first.
|
04/9/2018
14:23 | yump: Shame we couldn't get any shares at 2.5p, then the 6p would give a decent average. Unless they post stunning results at year end, I guess 12p is not going to be reached anytime soon (as in the next few years ?)
Although I'm still in profit having bought more when it was in the doldrums, it is becoming very tiresome to say the least, to find that while you're looking at a turnaround share price rise, you suddenly find yourself with 40% less paper value than you had a few weeks ago.
Improved results and a reasonable rating seemed certain based on previous forecasts. Now, who the heck knows and who the heck knows how many placees will sell out when they get the chance of a quick profit. Mind you, who the heck is going to buy in any size until there's some signs that earnings per share will give a decent rating.
I'm now resigned to yet another long wait, or possibly OMIP being bought out if it appears they have something unique.
I note with interest the values quoted in other acquisitions, in the placing details. Is that a coincidence or is it just to smooth existing shareholder waters (it doesn't do it for me).
Am I ever going to invest in another media company ? No. Not had one that has delivered and quite a few that tanked, while spinning positive PR, which is of course what they are all good at in the first place.
|
PLUS1
