One Media Ip Share Discussion Threads

[harrogate] 22/4/2022 07:16

So there we have it. An independent valuation of the catalogues suggests a value of 35m on them at a multiple of 12.5 of NPS. That is quite exciting I think and what we have all been trying to get at. It produces a net asset per share of 17p. Not sure the RNS produces this number clearly enough in the first few paragraphs but let's hope the message gets out there. Now let's get TCAT funding done and we might be off to the taces

[spin doctor] 21/4/2022 17:56

Tomorrow unlikely to be exciting. The historical numbers have been well flagged. If the TCAT sale had closed (or failed) I wd have expected an RNS. And OMIP fwd looking statements are not excessively effusive, tho I would note the favourable exchange rate, and lesser cash drag that will positively impact the current six months - that ends in a week and is reported July.

[microscope] 21/4/2022 12:10

Thanks for the replies, although I've not been a holder for some time now, I am interested at these levels.As you've said, the results have already been flagged up, so I suspect the current trading and outlook will probably be of greater interest, together with the balance sheet of course.If they float TCAT or mention plans to do so, the upside would be substantially greater than 30pc imho!!

[clocktower] 21/4/2022 10:01

Seems undervalued once again but the upside is maybe 30% at best imo and the lack of volume makes this of limited interest for anyone with sizeable funds to invest, unless looking for very long term value and a way to exit at a profit.

Good Luck

[harrogate] 21/4/2022 09:42

Need to see the results etc before I know what questions to ask. We know what they will be but as you say really hope for some TCAT funding news and some clear detail on the real net asset value of this business if the content was valued at a proper multiple of NPS. See discussion below. I do sense that it is now or never for a decent rerating of the share price. Fingers crossed

[microscope] 21/4/2022 09:27

So what are people expecting or looking out for tomorrow, numbers wise, or TCAT news for example?And anyone posted any questions for the investor presentation?

[spin doctor] 08/4/2022 22:17

There is clearly a question of 'Strategic Review'.

On the more straightforward issue of catalogue multiples, a decision to sell rights will be made on multiple grounds alongside price. For example OMIP have many longstanding business/personal/professional relationships that prospective sellers may wish to extend; TCAT 'protection' may attract some, as may the Harmony IP 'part sale' approach. And as a seller with often strong emotional attachment to 'your work', do you favour sale to a one billion cap such as RHM/Hipg, or to a boutique (OMIP) based in Pinewood where you will get the red carpet (sofa) treatment and a very clear commitment to nurture and protect the IP?

Having said all that, the pace of buying has been slow - asking prices have moved up, and OMIP refuse to chase. Not a bad thing IMV.

[harrogate] 08/4/2022 13:20

I think we are all agreed that we are undervalued. The question is what is going to change that as it had been the case for years. I remain convinced we need a formal independent valuation if our content from which we can quote an audited Net Asset value per share. Surely our content is lower quality or we wouldn't be able to buy it at 10x when the content that the big players like RHM is being bought at nearly double that

[spin doctor] 08/4/2022 12:01

The multiple of 18 is simply the corollary of a dcf valuation with 8.5% discount rate and 4-5% growth.

We can argue whether 8.5% and 4-5% are reasonable, but they seem so to me when I compare across and within industries. With a bit of inflation and with sectoral growth trends, the 4-5% medium term looks solid. Arguably there is space for the discount rate to move down towards 7.5% given the perceived growing maturity of the asset class.

I don't perceive the OMIP catalogues as lower grade. They are diversified and relatively aged (hence less volatile and of proven durability). 90% of RoundHill's catalogue is over 10 years old.

The share price won't transform overnight, but seems a heck of a margin of safety at sixpence.

[harrogate] 08/4/2022 10:54

Of course you wouldn't apply a multiple of 18x to OMIP NPS given it is much lower grade and we are buying it at around 10x currently. But the point is spot on - using 10x would give us a net asset value if a multiple of the current share price. The key is how do OMIP get that point across. Maybe include such a valuation with the upcoming results and even revalue the content in the balance sheet to reflect this. We live in hope

[spin doctor] 08/4/2022 09:47

Microscope - but can she be bought at a sensible multiple ;.)

Just reviewing briefly the recent RoundHill NAV statement and 'valuation matrix':



A discount rate of 8.5% and growth rates averaging 4-5% are applied to the 'last twelve months net publishers share' (LTM NPS), ~ gross profit, equating to a multiple of 18:
Valuation Date 31/12/2021
Valuation ($m) $408.2
Discount Rate 8.5%
% Increase From Prior Valuation 9.3%
LTM NPS ($m)1 $22.5
Multiple of LTM NPS 18.1x

Applying that to a conservative estimate of 2021 OMIP gross profit of £2.7M (announcement imminent) yields an OMIP intangible asset value of £48M.

[microscope] 30/3/2022 13:48

I see the bossman has been hobnobbing with Andrea Corr.

Now if he could sign her up! :)

[harrogate] 30/3/2022 13:24

https://youtu.be/2a9Y1IGOxnESeems a very neat idea

[spin doctor] 29/3/2022 22:04

I am ever the optimist.
"Wall Street expected the music industry to grow around 8.4% a year on average between 2021 and 2025. Based on this estimate, a catalog bought for 19 times net publisher’s share in 2020 would deliver a 12% levered return for investors, even if it had to be sold at a lower 15 times multiple in 2025,..."

[spin doctor] 27/3/2022 22:25

Quiet here.

Why do PPR keep posting on the wrong thread? Naive.

Pound weak versus USD - good. Globally, streaming continues to grow. OMIP slow to do new deals but still closing some at a good price.

Results next week. Previous trading update 'as expected', so surely no fireworks.

Would be great to see TCAT 'offload' confirmed as that wd transform FCF, but the paint (ink?) seems very slow to dry.

[harrogate] 21/2/2022 09:20

https://mobile.twitter.com/MichaelInfante4?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

[pprpublicity] 17/2/2022 10:37

!YOUTUBEVIDEO:als_klBZpgI:
One Media iP CEO Michael Infante explains all…

[harrogate] 17/2/2022 07:34

https://youtu.be/sCOsxrSonhM

[yump] 14/2/2022 13:45

Yes. Imo proactive interviews are pretty toothless brown nosing affairs.

[harrogate] 14/2/2022 12:53

I have been as frustrated as anyone that the Company seems stuck and out of ideas as to how to get the market to recognise the value here - but fair play thus appointment looks a good one and as I say the funding talked about for TCAT must be coming through. Also I have just noticed on Investor Meet Company that OMIP have signed up. This is also positive as I think the proactive videos are ineffective as a means of communicating to PIs. IMC seems much more sensible.

[yump] 14/2/2022 09:46

Completely agree with your sentiment - very tired of words - it seems a long time since the transformation from CD's - actually it is a very long time.

Clearly there is a lot of room for a TCAT that works and can be sold (presumably on licence) as there is so much movement towards streaming and so much leakage.

There always seems to be a bit of information missing. For instance TCAT apparently, according to past reports is already being used by two? major labels. In which case, what was it earning ?

If TCAT is going to protect the music industry from losing millions, which is nice for them, then what's its potential earnings for the providers ?

[harrogate] 14/2/2022 07:24

Well. I might have a moan more often. That looks a very decent appointment as CEO for TCAT. You would have thought it means that funding must be in place / fairly imminent as that would be part of the attraction for the new guy. That would be a great step forward.