Ocado Share Discussion Threads

[nakedmolerat] 18/7/2023 17:01

a good short from £8

this company has been rumoured (lolz) for the past ten years for it;s wonderful tech (another lolz).....if so, why hasnt it been snapped up at £2, £3 etc years ago....

[daz] 18/7/2023 16:49

Ocado's debt repayment schedule taken from todays presentation is
£600m in Dec 2025
£500m in Oct 2026
£350m in Jan 2027

Cash flow is improving and at the current rate of progress they would be cash flow breakeven at the end of 2024 and in all likelihood earlier than that as Capex edges lower and cost reductions take effect

Generally things are going in the right direction
More fulfilment centres are going live
Ocado retail metrics are improving including more loyal customers
Investing in partner support, to help customers get the best from the platform and once benefits are realised will eventually result in more orders. They gave the example of their work with Kroger in the US
But I think the success of Ocado Intelligent Automation is what could be the game changer as success would significantly reduce the amount needed to be refinanced. It looks as though it may be off to a good start as they expect orders soon

I think OCDO remains higher than normal risk but prospects are better after todays update.

[jonnywalker77] 18/7/2023 16:36

The Amazon rumour is pure fiction, which isn’t surprising given it came from Betaville rather than Kleinman at Sky. Nice little short squeeze for whoever tipped it mind you. If no RNS after 3 weeks doesn’t tell you that, then how about when they were asked on today’s Q&A whether Ocado or its advisors were looking to sell the group - answer, “definitely no”.

[bridggar] 18/7/2023 16:34

I don't think they will be able to buy at this price. I would expect them to have to pay a premium to the current valuation.

[nielsc] 18/7/2023 16:25

QANTAS,It was at £29 a few years back. I take the rough with the smooth. To be honest I would like to see the short position reduce and the price go up further - work it out ;-)Cheers,Niels

[qantas] 18/7/2023 16:23

Ocado results.

[nielsc] 18/7/2023 16:21

Do you really think Amazon would buy the tech at this price.Ocado are going to have to raise cash next year. They just burnt through £324m in 6 months. It may lessen going forwards, but they will need more before they become self sustaining.Clive Black quote: "The numbers remain grim, time is running out for this story, with the jam drying up,"Cheers,Niels

[empirestate] 18/7/2023 16:18

There is something wrong here. i don't often short but this is getting silly imo. cheers

[bridggar] 18/7/2023 16:01

Do you really think ocado will run out of cash witin the next few weeks??

[qantas] 18/7/2023 16:01

Niel hope you don't run out of money first.

[nielsc] 18/7/2023 15:43

Bridggar,65p when they have run out of cash.Cheers,Niels

[arja] 18/7/2023 15:37

about 750 I would think if they do make a bid and maybe rising to 800 if directors do not recommend the first bid .

[bridggar] 18/7/2023 15:21

Anyone care to guess what price Amazon will come in at?

[nielsc] 18/7/2023 15:00

QANTAS,You seem to focus on the personal rather than the dire financials of Ocado. You have to do better.Interesting point made by Daz.Cheers,Niels

[daz] 18/7/2023 14:55

Not sure if anyone listened to the presentation this morning but I think the strength today may relate to the prospects for Ocado Intelligent Automation, which is their offering for non-grocery warehouse automation. They cited increasing labour costs and availability in developed countries as drivers.

They said that 95% of their development costs are covered by grocery, which makes the incremental costs for the product extremely attractive and must make them very competitive

They think they have a particular advantage where high throughput is a requirement, based on their experience in grocery, where performance is at much higher levels

The model being used is capital light with upfront payments to offset development cash outflows, something I think the market is very happy about, given the debt situation.

They didn't give much away when asked about comparison to the competition but a 'rough guess' of 15% better performance and a smaller warehouse space footprint were mentioned

[qantas] 18/7/2023 14:50

Some eye watering losses stacking up here for the shorts (oh how we laughed!) - big day tomorrow guys - if inflation figures beat analystst estimates then sentiment alone will drive this higher - could see huge gains tomorrow as shorts close en masse - fingers crossed

[con90210] 18/7/2023 14:01

Interesting to see what this closes at today. Would expect some profit taking later.

[qantas] 18/7/2023 12:32

niel same old you also need deep pockets for your losses today.

[nielsc] 18/7/2023 11:49

QANTAS,Much the same can be said of Ocado given that they keep having to shell out money to keep operating. ;-)Cheers,Niels

[qantas] 18/7/2023 11:24

Poor old Jonny hope you have deep pockets.

[leadersoffice] 18/7/2023 11:17

I'm sure there are plenty of cost savings to be made in the eventuality of it being taken over at some point and I really believe that is what we could be looking at in the hopefully near future

[nielsc] 18/7/2023 11:01

Ocado will have to see more improvement otherwise with a H1 loss of £289.5m it may well exceed it's 2022 loss of £501m.Clive Black from Shore Capital is dubious about whether the business will ever achieve sustainable profitability.Cheers,Niels

[leadersoffice] 18/7/2023 11:01

Ever reason to go long as I will do. Buy the dips.

[jonnywalker77] 18/7/2023 10:57

Total dog - still short

Segmental reporting changes and segmental EBITDA distorted by recharges from Logistics and Tech to Retail (85.6m up from 62.1m last year - so this is shifting profit from retail to the other two segments)

£341m of inter-segment revenues (out of £533m total revenue for logistics & technology)

£77m of exceptional costs (vs 7m prior year) which are added back to headline EBITDA - of this £20m is impairment and the rest is cash / deferred consideration

Operating loss of £253m vs £178m prior year

Cash outflow of £320m

Net Debt of £900m (vs £760m prior year)

No sign of any Amazon bid

[qantas] 18/7/2023 10:51

UK online supermarket Ocado held annual guidance after swinging to a core profit in its first half and said its retail earnings would be "marginally positive" for the full year. The company on Tuesday posted a core profit of £16.6m compared with a loss of £13.6m a year earlier. Shares in the firm spiked last month on rumours of a possible bid from online giant Amazon.