Ocado Share Discussion Threads

[arja] 27/1/2025 23:52

:) . hopefully they will not come too close to the shore but more of a danger in pacific I think . yes , my sister in lovely paignton said she is fed up with rain almost every day !

[qantas] 27/1/2025 20:46

ARJA look out for the sharks raining and cold in London

[arja] 27/1/2025 09:03

nasdaq futures and the other US indices well down from time UK market closed on friday . But OCDO has had a bounce and seems to do it's own thing . I am a bit sick of too warm and sunny weather here in W.A and lucky you in pommyland :) . Need to wait until about 5.30pm for my daily swim in ocean !

[whites123] 27/1/2025 06:52

Stutes,

It’s easy to criticise Ocado’s CEO and point repeatedly to the company’s struggling share price. However, rather than assigning blame to leadership, it’s crucial to focus on the broader structural issues—the real culprits—stemming from the UK stock market itself. The market is plagued by inefficiencies, often rife with manipulation and short-term opportunism that hinder long-term value creation.

Consider this: the CEO’s performance incentives, structured through bonus options, are tied to a share price target of £29, with just over two years remaining for these to be exercised. This alignment of interests underscores that leadership is fully committed to delivering shareholder value. The narrative surrounding Ocado, however, continues to overlook this critical detail.

The underlying fundamentals of Ocado are nothing short of impressive. For 13 consecutive quarters, the company has been the fastest-growing player in supermarket retail—an extraordinary achievement in an intensely competitive industry. The operational and strategic advancements emanating from Ocado demonstrate innovation and resilience, yet the UK market’s propensity for fear-driven sentiment and shorting behaviors undermines such progress.

Instead of advocating for a change in leadership, a more constructive approach would involve reassessing the company’s listing. A move to the Nasdaq, where optimism and innovation are championed, could provide a far more conducive environment for Ocado to unlock its potential. The UK market has become a lottery—too often driven by negativity and manipulation rather than long-term value creation. Shifting to a market that rewards creativity and growth would likely better reflect the company’s true value.

In conclusion, the focus should be on addressing systemic market inefficiencies, not scapegoating the CEO. Ocado’s story is one of unparalleled growth and strategic ingenuity—an accomplishment that deserves recognition, not criticism distorted by the flaws of the UK market.

[qantas] 26/1/2025 19:26

States the price is the price

The CEO doesn't make the share price.

[stutes] 26/1/2025 18:01

If you consider the drop in share price - why hasn't XEO been sacked? If the company says the share price doesn't reflect the true value of the business then why should bonus shares reflect the sp?
Overall the highly rewarded CEO doesn't appear to generate any value for shareholders- the retail MD seems to be the only one? Time to sack CEO and break the group up to release the value.

[whites123] 24/1/2025 19:05

Ocado has to consider delisting from the UK markets and list Stateside.

The Trump effect alone is creating a positive feelgood factor instead of the desperation we feel with Rachel from accounts in charge and creating mayhem.

Although the truth is the UK markets have been a cesspit for years.

[stutes] 24/1/2025 14:08

The more time we give Ocado the more the can is kicked down the road. Time for delivery or a breakup.

[whites123] 24/1/2025 13:08

1224saj


OCADO GROUP PLC

14 January 2025



Ocado Retail Q4 Trading Statement



Strong performance throughout 2024; accelerated sales growth in Q4,

remaining the fastest growing grocer in the UK



Ocado Retail Ltd ("Ocado"), a joint venture between Ocado Group plc ("Ocado Group") and Marks & Spencer Group plc ("M&S"), today announces its trading statement for the 13 weeks to 1st December 2024



Q4 Highlights

· Q4 Retail revenue grew by 17.5% to £715.8m as we continued to deliver on our strategy of unbeatable choice, unrivalled service and reassuringly good value; enabled by Ocado's technology and automated Customer Fulfilment Centres

· Volumes (total items) on Ocado.com grew 17.0% year-on-year and average orders per week grew by 16.9% to 476k

· Performance was driven by active customer base growth of 12.1%, now at 1.1m active customers, and greater frequency as more customers shopped with us more of the time

· Growth was driven by order volumes; average basket sizes were stable and average selling prices were flat as we continued to invest in price and value ahead of the market



Key financial drivers



13 weeks

Q4 2024

13 weeks

Q4 20237

Year-on-year change (%)8

Retail revenue (£ million)1

715.8

609.4

+17.5

Volumes - total items (million)2

271.6

232.2

+17.0

Average orders per week (000s)3

476

407

+16.9

Active customers (000s)4

1,119

998

+12.1

Average basket value (£)5

120.85

120.62

+0.2

Average selling price (£)6

2.75

2.75

+0.1

Average basket size (items)

43.9

43.8

+0.1





FY 2024 (52 weeks to 1st December 2024)

· Full year Retail revenue grew by 13.9% to £2,685.8m

· Volumes (total items) on Ocado.com grew by 12.9% and average orders per week grew by 12.5%, driven by growth in active customer base of 12.1% to 1.1m active customers, and increased frequency

· Average basket value increased by 1.0% to £122.09, with basket size up 0.3% to 44.3 items and a 0.6% increase in ASP, well below UK grocery inflation9 of 3.0%

· Our topline growth, as well as continued focus on cost and efficiency, has resulted in strong EBITDA growth





Progress implementing our strategy

· We have offered even better choice, including almost all of the M&S addressable range live on site and more joint launches than prior years. We know M&S products continue to bring new customers to Ocado.com. Alongside our strong range of bigger brands and Ocado Own Brand, we also offered more innovation and newness to customers through our challenger brands

· Our already high Perfect Orders (on time and in full, with no substitutions) increased by +7ppt across the year, and 99% of items were delivered as promised. Product availability and delivery slot availability both improved whilst we also added an additional half a day of freshness to the shelf life of our produce

· We have continued to invest meaningfully in price with price perceptions continuing to improve as a result, with value satisfaction increasing +4.3ppt in the year. We lowered more prices through our 'Big Price Drops' and continued with our Ocado Price Promise, basket matching on 10,000 like-for-like products with Tesco



Christmas Trading

· Ocado delivered another record-breaking Christmas, with our highest ever level of sales over the peak Christmas trading period

· We offered an extensive seasonal range across M&S and many other suppliers, with customer favourites including the M&S party food selection from hot honey halloumi to pigs in blankets to the showstopper entertaining range; cheeses from a wide range of suppliers including Paxton and Whitfield; and a continuing popularity of low and no alcohol drinks for the festive season

· Our CFC efficiency improved throughout the year with average units per hour, "UPH" rising to 220, up 15% versus last year, with our newest CFC in Luton reaching 269 UPH in the year as we further rolled out On-Grid Robotic Pick. Over the Christmas period our network exceeded design capacity demonstrating the further growth potential of our CFCs.



Hannah Gibson, Ocado Retail's Chief Executive Officer, said:



"2024 was a year of strong growth. In the fourth quarter, we accelerated sales again - reaching 500,000 orders per week for the first time, at the end of November.



We've achieved this growth by being laser focused on customer service and delivering unbeatable choice, unrivalled service and reassuringly good value to the households and families that we serve. We've made a series of significant improvements - including making sure customers can buy all their favourite M&S products, ensuring our service is near perfect, shifting our value perceptions as customers realise how much we've moved on price and helping new customers discover Ocado.



"As we enter the next phase of our strategy, we are excited about the future of online grocery and our role in shaping it. Priorities for this year are raising the bar again in our leading customer proposition, making further progress on improving profitability and transitioning the business onto new technology platforms."







FY25 Guidance



We have confidence that the business will continue to show market-leading sales growth and volume momentum in FY25. Moreover, we expect to make further progress on driving operational efficiency and scale leverage, continuing on our journey towards a high mid-single digit adjusted EBITDA margin in the mid-term.

Our expectations for further growth will be reflected in our guidance for FY25 for Ocado Retail at the Ocado Group Full Year Results on 27 February 2025.



Alongside this release, a short video is available on the Ocado Group website here in which Ocado Retail CEO, Hannah Gibson, discusses recent performance, strategy, and the outlook for Ocado Retail.



Ocado Group, on behalf of the joint-venture, will be hosting an analyst conference call at 8.00am today. Please use participant number: [phone] and confirmation code: Ocado Q4 - Analyst Call. A replay facility will be available through an on demand link for 90 days following the announcement.



Contacts

· Stephen Daintith, Chief Financial Officer, Ocado Group plc on [phone]

· Nick Coulter, Head of Investor Relations, Ocado Group plc on [phone]

· Fraser Ramzan, Head of Investor Relations, Marks and Spencer Group plc, on [phone]

· Oliver Hughes at MHP on [phone] or [e-mail]



About Ocado Retail

Ocado.com (operated by Ocado Retail) is the world's largest dedicated online supermarket and is a 50:50 joint venture between Marks & Spencer Group and Ocado Group.



Reaching over 80% of the UK population, more than 1 million active customers benefit from an unbeatable range of around 45,000 products (including M&S, Ocado Own-Range, big-name brands and challenger brands), unbeatable service with next-to-no substitutions. Every order is carefully packed in one of seven distribution centres using world-leading software and technology. Shopping is then delivered directly to customers using a network of regional spokes and fleet of brightly-coloured delivery vans.



Thoughtful service features such as colour-coded bags, digital receipts provided in date order, reminder texts with your driver's name, along with convenient hourly delivery slots complemented by award-winning customer service on email, phone and social media.



Ocado Retail is also responsible for Zoom by Ocado, its rapid grocery delivery service.





Notes

1. Retail revenue comprises revenues from Ocado.com and Zoom by Ocado

2. Volumes - total items refers to results of Ocado.com

3. Average orders per week refers to results of Ocado.com

4. Active customers are classified as active if they have shopped at Ocado.com within the previous 12 weeks

5. Average basket value refers to results of Ocado.com

6. Average selling price refers to Ocado.com and is defined as product sales divided by total eaches

7. FY23 was a 53 week year and Q4 2023 was 14 weeks. To provide a like-for-like comparative the Q4 2023 trading update was based on the 13 weeks ending 26th November (with the exception of active customers which is based on the 53rd week year exit number)

8. Growth percentage calculated on an unrounded basis

9. NIQ Total Till and NIQ Homescan from Nielsen Consumer LLC

[qantas] 24/1/2025 07:53

Good afternoon Arja it was a strange trading day yesterday.

[arja] 24/1/2025 02:40

surprised at the quite big pullback for OCDO yesterday but must have been some reason for it . nice weekend all .

[stutes] 23/1/2025 14:38

7 yes approx since Kr partnership announced, time for Ocado to show its shareholders the return.

[1224saj] 23/1/2025 13:17

Looking for the RNS on or around the 16/01/25 ??

[whites123] 23/1/2025 08:13

Why Ocado is a Buy: A Deeply Undervalued Gem on the UK Stock Market

The UK stock market remains in a state of relative stagnation, with valuations for many companies at multi-decade lows. This has fueled a narrative of pessimism among investors and analysts alike. Yet, this broad malaise has also created unique opportunities for those willing to look past the short-term gloom. One such opportunity is Ocado Group Plc, a stock that not only remains undervalued but also holds the potential for a dramatic rebound.

Lingotto's Investment Speaks Volumes
In a market where institutional backing is often seen as a strong signal, Lingotto Investment Management’s recent doubling of its stake in Ocado is a game-changer. Lingotto, a respected name in global finance, has displayed conviction in Ocado’s long-term prospects, signaling to the broader market that this is a company with immense untapped potential. This confidence from a major institutional investor should not be overlooked, particularly in a stock that has been heavily shorted in recent months.

A Depressed Market—But Not a Depressed Opportunity
It’s no secret that the UK stock market has underperformed relative to global peers. Muted growth forecasts, and investor hesitancy to allocate capital to UK-listed equities have all contributed to the malaise. Yet, this environment has little to do with Ocado’s fundamentals or its long-term value proposition. Instead, it represents a mispricing opportunity for savvy investors to take advantage of the broader pessimism.

Indeed, Ocado’s world-leading proprietary technology, partnerships with major global retailers, and position at the forefront of automation and e-commerce logistics make it an outlier in an otherwise subdued market. This isn’t a business bogged down by lack of growth; it’s a disruptor poised to capitalize on major global trends.

Analyst Optimism: A Trebling of Share Price?
Some analysts have gone as far as to suggest a trebling of Ocado’s share price is within reach, and while this may sound ambitious to some, it isn’t far-fetched when you examine the fundamentals. Ocado’s long-term contracts, innovative technology, and first-mover advantage in online grocery logistics could yield exponential returns. The company's ability to roll out its proprietary Smart Platform globally makes it a scalable operation with significant margin expansion opportunities as more retailers integrate its technology.

The Short Squeeze Potential
One of the most compelling catalysts for a rapid recovery in Ocado’s share price lies in the shorts that have piled into the stock. Heavy short interest often creates a powder keg for price movements. Once buying pressure begins to build—whether driven by institutional activity like Lingotto’s or a shift in sentiment—short sellers will be forced to cover their positions. This creates a self-reinforcing cycle where buying accelerates as shorts scramble to exit.

We’ve seen this dynamic play out in other heavily shorted stocks, and Ocado is particularly well-positioned for such a squeeze given its fundamentally sound business model and strong institutional backing. This phenomenon could accelerate any rebound far beyond what normal buying pressure alone would achieve.

Conclusion
While the UK stock market may currently be in a depressed state, Ocado offers investors a golden opportunity to capitalize on a fundamentally strong company that remains misunderstood and undervalued. Lingotto’s doubling of its stake is a clear vote of confidence, and the prospect of a short squeeze adds an additional layer of upside potential. For those with the patience to ride out short-term volatility, Ocado could prove to be one of the most compelling buys in the UK market today.

Investors should focus not on the broader market’s malaise but on the company’s unique strengths, global opportunities, and a potential price rebound that could come faster and sharper than many anticipate.

[stutes] 23/1/2025 08:09

2025 should mean either Ocado can deliver or it splits itself up, becoming a retailer and IT logistics with shareholders given shares in each entity. In splitting the business it may encourage more partnerships with big retailers and logistics firms?

[whites123] 23/1/2025 07:51

Why Ocado is a Buy: A Deeply Undervalued Gem on the UK Stock Market

The UK stock market remains in a state of relative stagnation, with valuations for many companies at multi-decade lows. This has fueled a narrative of pessimism among investors and analysts alike. Yet, this broad malaise has also created unique opportunities for those willing to look past the short-term gloom. One such opportunity is Ocado Group Plc, a stock that not only remains undervalued but also holds the potential for a dramatic rebound.

Lingotto's Investment Speaks Volumes
In a market where institutional backing is often seen as a strong signal, Lingotto Investment Management’s recent doubling of its stake in Ocado is a game-changer. Lingotto, a respected name in global finance, has displayed conviction in Ocado’s long-term prospects, signaling to the broader market that this is a company with immense untapped potential. This confidence from a major institutional investor should not be overlooked, particularly in a stock that has been heavily shorted in recent months.

A Depressed Market—But Not a Depressed Opportunity
It’s no secret that the UK stock market has underperformed relative to global peers. Muted growth forecasts, and investor hesitancy to allocate capital to UK-listed equities have all contributed to the malaise. Yet, this environment has little to do with Ocado’s fundamentals or its long-term value proposition. Instead, it represents a mispricing opportunity for savvy investors to take advantage of the broader pessimism.

Indeed, Ocado’s world-leading proprietary technology, partnerships with major global retailers, and position at the forefront of automation and e-commerce logistics make it an outlier in an otherwise subdued market. This isn’t a business bogged down by lack of growth; it’s a disruptor poised to capitalize on major global trends.

Analyst Optimism: A Trebling of Share Price?
Some analysts have gone as far as to suggest a trebling of Ocado’s share price is within reach, and while this may sound ambitious to some, it isn’t far-fetched when you examine the fundamentals. Ocado’s long-term contracts, innovative technology, and first-mover advantage in online grocery logistics could yield exponential returns. The company's ability to roll out its proprietary Smart Platform globally makes it a scalable operation with significant margin expansion opportunities as more retailers integrate its technology.

The Short Squeeze Potential
One of the most compelling catalysts for a rapid recovery in Ocado’s share price lies in the shorts that have piled into the stock. Heavy short interest often creates a powder keg for price movements. Once buying pressure begins to build—whether driven by institutional activity like Lingotto’s or a shift in sentiment—short sellers will be forced to cover their positions. This creates a self-reinforcing cycle where buying accelerates as shorts scramble to exit.

We’ve seen this dynamic play out in other heavily shorted stocks, and Ocado is particularly well-positioned for such a squeeze given its fundamentally sound business model and strong institutional backing. This phenomenon could accelerate any rebound far beyond what normal buying pressure alone would achieve.

Conclusion
While the UK stock market may currently be in a depressed state, Ocado offers investors a golden opportunity to capitalize on a fundamentally strong company that remains misunderstood and undervalued. Lingotto’s doubling of its stake is a clear vote of confidence, and the prospect of a short squeeze adds an additional layer of upside potential. For those with the patience to ride out short-term volatility, Ocado could prove to be one of the most compelling buys in the UK market today.

Investors should focus not on the broader market’s malaise but on the company’s unique strengths, global opportunities, and a potential price rebound that could come faster and sharper than many anticipate.

[sellhighandbuylow] 19/1/2025 18:02

Everybody knows that Ocado has debts of £1.2 Billion to service and it will have to reduce that figure with another fund raising (share placing and rights issue).

Its coming.

[spa362] 19/1/2025 14:56

From half year results: looking forward to full year results next month!


● Underlying cash outflow*2 of £(197)m: £101m improvement vs. 1H23, driven by higher revenues, increasing EBITDA margins, lower capex and good cost control; continuing a sequential improvement in the Group's cash flow. Liquidity remains strong at £1,047m (1H23: £1,309m)

● Improving mid-term cash trajectory: underlying cash outflows in FY24 now expected to be around £150m lower (improvement) vs. FY23. Clear roadmap for Group to turn cash flow positive during FY26.

● Raising FY24 EBITDA* & cash flow guidance: Underlying cash flow* expected to improve by £150m (previously £100m); Technology Solutions to achieve a mid-teens EBITDA margin (>10% previously)

[spa362] 19/1/2025 14:50

Lol nice try - nah - don't think so.

[factsandfigures] 19/1/2025 13:45

MARKET BRACED FOR A SIZEABLE FUND RAISING AT OCADO
====================================================

Everything hung on grocery retailer OCADO having a decent Christmas, but a series of calamities including failed deliveries, missing items and robotics failures meant it just didn't happen.

Not even a prime time advertising campaign offering to 'match Tesco prices on some groceries' has done enough to win over new customers and then retain them.

Consequently OCADO is likely to need a substantial fund raising cash injection if things don’t pick up soon. Shareholders are likely to find out by late-January or mid-February.

Worryingly, if the company manages to limp through in the short term, the longer-term prospects for the business look very shaky, at best.

[whites123] 16/1/2025 18:38

Today's announcement that Lingotto, backed by the Agnelli family's Exor empire, has more than doubled its stake in Ocado is a resounding vote of confidence from one of the most astute and strategic investment groups in the world.
The Agnelli family, renowned for its long-term, value-driven approach to capital allocation, clearly sees Ocado as a transformative player in the global retail and technology landscape.
Such a significant increase in holding not only underscores the immense growth potential in Ocado’s business model and proprietary technology but also signals to the market that a seasoned, influential investor believes the company is deeply undervalued at current levels.
This move should serve as a wake-up call for sceptics, reaffirming Ocado’s position as a compelling long-term investment with substantial upside.
The Agnelli family, controls:
Stellantis,
CNH Industrial,
Ferrari,
Juventus FC,
Cushman & Wakefield,
The Economist Group.

To name but a few.

Todays increase in holding is IMMENSELY interesting.

Could it be they have their sights set on Ocado?

[whites123] 16/1/2025 18:28

Today's announcement that Lingotto, backed by the Agnelli family's Exor empire, has more than doubled its stake in Ocado is a resounding vote of confidence from one of the most astute and strategic investment groups in the world.
The Agnelli family, renowned for its long-term, value-driven approach to capital allocation, clearly sees Ocado as a transformative player in the global retail and technology landscape.
Such a significant increase in holding not only underscores the immense growth potential in Ocado’s business model and proprietary technology but also signals to the market that a seasoned, influential investor believes the company is deeply undervalued at current levels.
This move should serve as a wake-up call for sceptics, reaffirming Ocado’s position as a compelling long-term investment with substantial upside.
The Agnelli family, controls:
Stellantis,
CNH Industrial,
Ferrari,
Juventus FC,
Cushman & Wakefield,
The Economist Group.

To name but a few.

Todays increase in holding is IMMENSELY interesting.

Could it be they have their sights set on Ocado?

[bridggar] 16/1/2025 15:25

Weakness of GBP makes many good UK institutions attractive to foreign entities. I hope Ocado can resist an opportunistic bid.