Oakdene Homes Share Discussion Threads

[anusol] 27/6/2007 22:57

Ive been watching oakdene with interest, to find a point to buy in - I may be way off the mark, but I also followed IMP for a few months and watched that tank downwards from 300p to 180p, then all of a sudden it leapt to 220+ as a potential takeover was announced.

Now this may be far fetched, but could the MMs be trying to tank Oakdene downwards to make it a nice easy takeover target? Ive read a few articles that said they had property & land assets which make it an attractive takeover prospect - perhaps someone is getting the price into a range where they can launch an affordable takeover?

this is pure speculation so forgive any assumptions.

[slapdash] 27/6/2007 22:27

hmmm... well again for the record I think this is a good company that will do well and is undervalued.... but I am not one to argue with the market as it is much bigger than me... Slapper

[polzeath] 27/6/2007 21:07

Housebuilders downbeat ahead of merger
By Toby Shelley

Published: June 27 2007 08:30 | Last updated: June 27 2007 08:30

Housebuilders George Wimpey and Taylor Woodrow on Wednesday said ahead of their £5bn merger next week that the US market remained gloomy and the UK was set to weaken.

In trading statements ahead of the merger, set to close next week, Wimpey said its US order book was down 41 per cent year-on-year while Taylor Woodrow reported a 45 per cent decline.

Taylor Woodrow said its margins in the US would be lower than those implied by the write downs already announced this year. The trading statement said: "we anticipate margins being significantly below last year, excluding the effects of the previously announced exceptional items". In January it took a £21m write down on the US, followed by another of £25m in May. Wimpey took a US-related write down of £61m in February.

On Tuesday, Lennar, the second biggest US housebuilder reported a quarterly loss and said the market could deteriorate further despite 15 per cent price cuts.

The slowdown of the US housing market hit the industry unexpectedly last summer. It has deepened with increasing interest rates and high stock levels but has shown significant regional variation – for example, Texas remains relatively healthy but California is challenging.

Overall, Wimpey's sales in the US in the first half are now seen at 20 per cent lower than in 2006, with prices and margins both down. The story is the same at Taylor Woodrow.

Both companies said they had reduced their US landbanks and focusing on cost cutting, with Wimpey promising $20m in savings this year.

The US accounted for some 29 per cent of the combined 2006 revenues of the two companies. Analyst Chris Millington at Bridgewell Securities said in a note to clients that while the trading statements did not alter earnings forecasts for the companies, the relative weight of the US in the their portfolios had not been taken into account. He recommended a switch to solely UK-focussed builders until more visibility on the outlook for the US was possible.

In the UK, both companies said the market in the first half of the year had been stable with good buyer demand and confidence with margins improving. Wimpey said it was confident of full-year operating margins of 14 per cent or more. Order books are stronger, by 5 per cent for Wimpey and 10 per cent for Taylor Woodrow. Wimpey's short-term landbank has been increased by 10 per cent and Taylor Woodrow's is stable but will grow in the second half.

However, the second half of the year is expected to be less buoyant as interest rate increases bite, and the companies are looking to cost-cutting and margin improvement to deliver improvements in underlying profits. The merger, expected to complete on July 3, is forecast to deliver savings of some £50m.

The companies said that detailed integration work had been carried out and new management teams and reporting structures would become effective as soon as the deal completes.

Shares in Taylor Woodrow were down 1.8 per cent at 372p in early London trading. Wimpey was 2 per cent lower at 515p


Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007

[slapdash] 27/6/2007 20:41

rates up next week....



then I would guess 6% before year end..... we shall see......

[edmondj] 27/6/2007 18:19

One can strain one's eyes and mind, trying to look too hard for reasons and miss the wood for the trees, IMO.

All the points mentioned above seem relevant though, it just seems to me that sentiment is liable to turn with housebuilding shares, with interest rates, with smaller players harder hit due to illiquidity besides gearing. OKD's fall may be as simple as that.

[sirhokko] 27/6/2007 18:12

Funny thing is the recent trading updates and outlook from Barratt and Persimmon were pretty good, certainly with regard to the UK housing market. Likewise with Telford a few weeks ago.

Didn't have a position here, but been watching a while. 190 looked pretty solid I thought, it even held during the market drop at the end of Feb. So it seemed a good entry point, but once the price fell through it, well who knows where it will end.

Looks like a few PI's got scared and bailed then it fell like a deck of cards.

Just bad market sentiment I think. Trading could be fine, but at the end of the day even good results are not always enough to buoy a share price.

[spaceparallax] 27/6/2007 17:15

Slap,

the earlier reference to low volumes was me, but more one of expressing surprise at the share price movement given the relatively low volume - after all, the share price has been pretty resilient over recent weeks.

Time will tell - fortunately, I am relatively patient and am attempting to build for my future rather than dealing with any current financial crises.

Also, on your matter of psychology and moving on, I can entirely understand where you're coming from - I too have shares like that and would sometimes have been better served by making a clean break. Although after 2-3 years of accumulated experience, I'm reaching the stage where I feel that my portfolio is becoming well structured wrt to diversity and risk/reward, with not many cuckoos remaining and fortunately not TOO many disasters along the way.

[slapdash] 27/6/2007 16:39

trouble is that this is a sentiment stock... bad sentiment towards sector and perceived as a low quality stock so hit worse in setbacks...

the clue that this was going to fall was given about a month or so ago when it was trying to get to new highs but there was a huge sell order lapping up all the demand.... i.e. an end of day single protected transaction selling as much stock as was possible..

after that there was no power behind the stock and so it fell back..

in a downturn they would be hit disproportionally due to their gearing... but they are also in a good area of the country...

trouble is who will buy this as interest rates go up and we don't know when they will stop going up????? Or how it will affect housing demand..

Saying all this I still think it is cheap and is a great investment.... trouble is you have to be very patient and ride out the negative sentiment on rates/housing

Northern Rock today shows how jumpy market is on the housing market...

Barratt and Persimmon also hitting lows...

Personally I think it is incorrect of a previous poster to say this is just low volumes and exageratted movement from it.... this was the large volume sell about a month or so ago that took the oomph from this share.... a big holder getting out... Key was I should of followed that signal...... PI's only move shares if there is no institutional support or if they ahve been selling.... i.e. the big institutions put the ball next to the cliff and the PI's can then sometimes push it over.... or the other way around the institutions put the ball in the canon and hte PI's can sometimes light the fuse... but PIs by themselves don't move stocks....

Slapper

[spaceparallax] 27/6/2007 16:38

That's always a possibility FF, although it's so soon after results and AGM that it would be surprising - the only significant issue that comes to mind could be planning problems at Newhaven, although I think that's unlikely.

Interesting days lie ahead, especially having breached the nearby support level.

[ffedup] 27/6/2007 16:33

The trades today dont tell us very much. mostly small trades so we assume sell orders from P.I.s (about 77,000 shares) but no big buy order out there yet.It does raise the question has someone been dancing on the phone wires to about 20 people with bad news about which we know nothing.A falling share price normally indicates bad news in the morning. Wish I could be more optimistic because with these waterside sites this company should be worth more.

[slapdash] 27/6/2007 15:58

as I have said I believe on purely stock picking and strategy grounds my decision to sell was wrong...

it is largely psycological in that to move on to the next thing I have to leave this behind...

so I think I will be kicking myself in the future and I would hold if I was you guys..

However, I made loads of investment mistakes here and I will try and learn the lessons... at least now I am not worrying about the rate rise in July and maybe thereafter and about Mortgage applicatoins anymore!!!!!!!!!

Slapper

[spaceparallax] 27/6/2007 15:47

I'm sure that NW will be sitting tight - as far as we know, there's nothing fundamentally wrong here.

If this proves to be a tree-shake to fill a big order, there will be a few people kicking themselves.

[ffedup] 27/6/2007 15:39

I dont think the likes of Nigel Wray and the institutions are going to be very pleased with this. I know Nigel bought in when the share price was below 100 but he bought a lot more at 200p. Somebody's head will roll over this. Maybe even a takeover. Sorry to go back over old ground but things havent gone right since Susan Massingham resigned 'for personal reasons'.Perhaps she knew something that we did not. Ill health is no reason to sell shares. If you are ill, all the more reason to stay at home in bed and just collect the divi.

[spaceparallax] 27/6/2007 15:32

Slap,

I'm sorry to hear that, I had rather enjoyed your no-nonsense presence.

On the matter of quality, I don't doubt that OKD have it, but do tend to agree with your feelings about Mr Turnip as a non-communicator.

I wish you well and will cross paths no doubt at EPY (another tricky one if ever), which could come good once it overcomes it's fledgling stage sensitivity. Good job they don't cover dodgy climatic places like Britain! LOL!

[slapdash] 27/6/2007 15:18

afraid to say I have sold the lot.... now let me be clear I think this was the wrong decision but I need to move on psycologically....

I would be happy to buy back in on the back of better sentiment and an increasing share price...

I have lost a reasonable amount but that is the nature of the game... we will always lose some.... but I have tried to keep losses to a minimum by selling early...

I did very badly here and lessons will have to be learnt.... I hope some of my other plays go better... EPY, ACHL etc, etc.....

I think though that the lesson is always go for quality no matter what... Turpin and Oakdene have so many question marks on them that we shouldn't let a low P/E tempt us... these are often low for a reason..

my position here was too large and secondly I was going against the wind rather than with the wind behind me.... that is a big mistake.... let hte trend be your friend... here interest rates are going up and the consumer is in trouble... not a great tail wind..

Again I'm sure my decision will be proved to be a mistake but there you go...

Slapper

[spaceparallax] 27/6/2007 15:05

No sign of any AT Sells kicking in yet - although I suspect that would probably happen around low to mid 170s, if at all.

[spaceparallax] 27/6/2007 15:04

Poor old Slap - your timing may not have been right, along with many others. However, knowing that you're endowed with common sense, I suspect that you're not likely to bank the loss, especially when we're aware of the strong upside potential.

[slapdash] 27/6/2007 14:57

I think as this is perceived as a 'questionable' company it is the worst to get hit.... having Turpin as CEO does us no favours... no one wants to buy into him...

shoudl of gone for a quality outfit like Telford homes...

Slapper

[spaceparallax] 27/6/2007 14:23

Just to give you all a laugh - I don't really think that we have a problem here, but with the drop so far, which is all the result of 'O' trades as far as I can see, I have a horrible feeling that a pile of ATs are going to kick in causing the share price to plummet through the early 170s support towards the low 140s.

Consequently, I've placed a Buy order for 5K@150p.

Surely that's got to spark a recovery!

[slapdash] 27/6/2007 14:22

the thing is that this is massively illiquid and so scared selling can see it come off a lot..

I don't think the model or company is broken.... but I have not been too happy with the company so far...

I'm sure this fall could be prompted to allow lots of Seymour Pierce clients to buy in at a low price..

but who would buy now??? Another interest rate increase on the cards.. and housing market may fall back... And this company isn't 'dodgy' but has lots of question marks about it..

the mistake I made here was to buy too much but also to go against the prevailing wind.... i.e. interst rates going up and housing looking edgy.... you should always go with the prevailing wind as going with the wind against you makes any progress very tough.. lastly I forgot the importance of management... CEO Turpin has many question marks over him and does appear to be not too worried on corporate governance..... it was a mistake to back him..

but this is the nature of the game... we will always get some wrong and it is how we deal with them that counts..

we shall see... Slapper

[polzeath] 27/6/2007 14:21

It was NRK that did the dirty for you lot:

'MARKET OUTLOOK

The UK mortgage market has continued to be robust in 2007 with gross lending to
the end of May running approximately 13% ahead of the equivalent period in 2006.
Higher interest rates tend to mean slowing volumes of house moving transactions
but provide a greater incentive to remortgaging activity.

Combining all the components of the UK mortgage market, our expectation is for
the gross mortgage market in 2007 to be over £370bn and for house prices to be
rising in line with wage inflation by the end of the year. Northern Rock remains
confident of its ability to achieve its lending targets within this context.'

That's extremely downbeat if you read the directorspeak. Who else knows the UK housing market as well as the mortgage banks? NRK down 11% at time of post.

[spaceparallax] 27/6/2007 14:16

I'm not selling - my biggest dilemma is at what level to pitch my Buy order.

[edmondj] 27/6/2007 13:58

Most are sells though.

This is always the problem with house builders: get a whiff that the interest rate trend has changed, hence sentiment, and shares turn with smaller builders being hit worse. Huntsman needs a neat vodka with that 'long' CFD!

Enough greedy sellers hanging out with silly prices where I am in the South East, and properties not selling.