Oakdene Homes Share Discussion Threads

[spaceparallax] 09/5/2007 10:39

Slap,

I'm with you there. The tone of the results is very positive and the outlook looks good with the exception of the query over planning at Newhaven (although realistically it's hard to imagine any sane LA scuppering such an image raising project). So, I do feel the words are good.

The numbers, I'm less sure about. They appear to be sold to us as very good, but to my reckoning the bottom line i.e. EPS is barely lifted above last year's (presumably largely due to taxation issues). Will this be viewed by the Market as a tremendous operating improvement, where we should discount last year's figure because of modest taxation, or will the view be taken that it's only a minute increase. On the financial side, there was clearly a willingness to raise money at 200p ps.

I'm rather nonplussed - prospects look very good, but I'm disappointed with the EPS.

On a personal note Slap, it must be said what cruel man you are pestering those poor senior management for news at a time when they're so busy with not only business but also doubling their staff. You shareholders just have no idea how tough it is!!! LOL!!!!

[slapdash] 09/5/2007 10:14

I will admit I just don't know what to make of these results.... we will have to see how market/city receives them over the next month or so...

Slapper

[a0148009] 09/5/2007 08:49

Slapper -

I didnt exactly say 'crash' !

"now is a good time to raise additonal capital and insurance for any weakness in UK, they dont have to rush out and spend but may well have identified potential deveopments".

Clearly it is the latter.

Debt at present before placing is pretty lumpy at £60m which should come down as current projects mature, but balance sheet stretched and we are relying on their reading of the market going foreward.

Their timing to raise additional funds seems right to me - but the future is still very much dependent on at least stability if not growth in the property market.

I would still look for a take out some time in the future.

AO

[this_is_me] 09/5/2007 08:14

Everything going swimmingly at the Quay and elsewhere. Great prospects for the current year too.

[slapdash] 08/5/2007 19:21

hmmm... maybe... but I see this as broadly positive...

- we know the lack of trading update is nothing sinister (negative trading etc)...

- management appear very positive on demand and prospects... otherwise why raise money?

- Placing signals those who took it up must have some positive insider information... otherwise why take up the placing????

- Management appear to have identified good sites to buy and a few more Newhaven's give us visibility for the next 5-10 years...

A0148009 - I think the analysis that they think the market will crash so should raise money now is a little bit pessimistic... why not raise more money over last few years when people have equally been calling a crash etc...

So on balance looks good to me...

Slapper

[a0148009] 08/5/2007 15:46

Management may be thinking stock market is high and bearing in mind property market in USA feel now is a good time to raise additonal capital and insurance for any weakness in UK, they dont have to rush out and spend but may well have identified potential deveopments, 5% or so discount to market price is not bad - certainly explains why share price has not performed recently as well as some of us expected. Does give comfort that forthcoming results
should be satisfactory - will be interesting to see if any of the placees have a 3% holding.Do not believe they would have got better terms for a deal of this size with an Open Offer.

AO

[slapdash] 08/5/2007 15:15

well mixed feelings on this... why couldn't they just wait for results??? Probably as want to give those taking the placing some uplift so they have an incentive to take it up... (in a placing the potential investors are made 'insiders' which means they have information on trading etc which isn't available to the market but as such are only allowed to buy shares in the placing or not at all - they can't then use this information to buy shares in the open market until after it is made public)...

must mean results are ok as otherwise why would people do the placing... i.e. why would you buy at 200p if you were told the company is having difficult conditions and will announce so in its full year results...

discount wasn't too low... so a positive sign...

also raising the money means they think there are lots of opportunities... and are positive on future... Telford homes did a placing a while ago and the shares have increased massively since... also having land and opportunities from 2009 means that investors come to see this as a long-term play... and should re-rate it up accordingly... also larger market cap means more attention and liquidity... also cash makes them much more protected from a downturn and lowers gearing...

Negatives for me... largish placing in relation to market cap.. and diluting things going forward by 21%.... they should of tried to do it at a higher price later on.... if land projects are to pay off in 2009 onwards they could of bought them later and so raised money later.... why do they need the cash??? Yes they are expanding but surely some of their projects which they are selling should be generating lots of cash now... i.e. Swaylands has loads of 700k appartments.... 10 of them sold and you have £7m.... generally why couldn't they have taken an incremental appraoch to fund raising and land acquisition??? Main annoyance is the dilution issue.... it is easy to raise money and for people to write nice notes... but much harder to justify it ex-post.... generally I don't like companies that keep on coming back to raise money....

Well at least now we know why resutls late and no trading statement.... so positive news because thier tardiness was due to this and not because of any major negative issuee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

How do I see this going.... well I would of thought stock price should do well on results... if they ever bother to announce them!!!!!!!!!

Slapper

[rbf] 08/5/2007 15:07

yes rather odd, but then pretty much par for the course for Oakdene....

[rbf] 08/5/2007 14:51

no longer rumour, but fact.....well the fundraising that is....

[spaceparallax] 08/5/2007 14:41

Interesting rumours!

On the matter of lucky numbers, mine's 9 - oh hell, not more waiting.

[slapdash] 08/5/2007 14:12

Oakdene hits the acquisition trail

Oakdene Homes has attracted attention recently as rumours have circulated that the south of England housebuilder and property developer will announce a fund-raising in the region of £15m alongside its preliminary results tomorrow.

The group, which has a market value of about £70m, is understood to be placing stock with UK institutions through broker Seymour Pierce. The money should expand its land bank in south-east England and provide leverage for further bolt-on acquisitions.

Oakdene is acquisitive, having bought Honeygrove in 2005 and Chequer Homes last year. Analysts are expecting an update on its flagship Newhaven site, where it is redeveloping the marina. The shares are trading at 210p having almost doubled since its float in 2004.

[superplanty] 08/5/2007 14:08

In Daily Telegraph today...........Rumours of a £15m fundraising to be announced with results tomorrow.

[slapdash] 08/5/2007 14:00

7 months 8 days since last comment on trading... obviously they just can't be bothered to tell us how things are going...

but 7 is lucky for some!!! Slap

[spaceparallax] 08/5/2007 09:34

Slap,

I didn't see the Berkeley news - so thanks for that.

As you say, it enhances the case for holding such as OKD as highlighted in an article a few weeks back.

SP seems to be drifting in response to the sizeable SELL last week - I intend taking advantage to top-up over the next few days.

O/T,

Take a look at MWE - results out this morning, showing 7th consec quarter of good growth. IMHO share price nowehere near reflects their fundamentals, particularly bearing in mind their available cash pile. Speculation previously that their being based in Israel may be pinning back the share price due to everlasting regional tensions.

[slapdash] 04/5/2007 13:31

did you see how Berkely jumped yesterday... rumours of bid or something.... this could and should do the same....

I just can't see a major negative that would seriously disrupt the business and that isn't just related to a delay in a project (i.e. not a change in value but a delay thus making it longer for value to be realised..)

but sure I could be wrong.... we shall see.... I would say hold on boys as results will ahve to be in May... (you would of thought)..

Slapper

[spaceparallax] 04/5/2007 09:09

Last year the results were in a fortnight's time, with notification given 21 April and postponement announced 10 May 2006.

[slapdash] 03/5/2007 21:11

red - yup I think these premium homes are to some extent immune from interest rates... as they are bought by wealthy people, and people with city bonuses..

Oakdene is based in Surry with HQ in Reigate so they should know this stock broking county extremely well...

Turpin owns 10% of company and I am bullish on prospects...

I also think there should be loads of cash coming into the company now with new sales that there should be little chance of further fund raisings... in essence they are providing the right product just at the right time... premium homes in the south East as the boom reaches its middle phase...

despite all worries in the past this has gone from £1 at floatation to about £2.12 today and despite that has still underperformed other house builders... Persimmon (nation's biggest housebuilder) about 40% and Telford homes underperformed by about 70% since Oakdene's floation in May 2004.... so lots of catching up to do...

and I do believe Turpin will at some point want to cash out and this is a very attractive bid target....

here's to 300p before year-end....

Slapper

[redtelephone] 03/5/2007 21:03

The Surrey sites are inside the M25 & is the most expensive county in England.

The below site also should be an excellent return on investment for Oakdene.


The Palm - Sandy Lane , Isle of Wight

The Palm will offer a gated community lifestyle with many facilities. A taste of island life without airport hassle. Situated in the very heart of the island and wrapped around by rolling country side, The Palm offers two and three bedroom refurbished apartments and a selection of new build contemporary homes some with roof terraces.

[slapdash] 03/5/2007 18:54

red... yup I think this will be bought too.... what was the banner homes story???

anyway, in my view... there is always lots of superflous noise with investing.... most shoudl be ignored.... good or bad.....

I think it has been said that 90% of the performance of a stock comes from top-down factrs..... rather than say company specific factors....

here we hvae a share in a great sector which is lowly rated.... the rest of the sector is doing incredibly well..... this will follow suit............

Red I too hope for 300p plus and think we should lglide up there as long as results are ok and outlook statement ok...

one caveat is increasing rates to a 10-year high this year... however, I think for the South-East of England where demand is much greater than supply and rental market is buoyant that shouldn't be too much of an issue... i.e. American housing market may be weak but New York market isn't going down in price.... where the prosperity is.... and finite supply...

so long-term I still think this is a good hold even if stock market frets of rates going to 6% and possibly more.... there is just so much prosperity being created in the South East of England the company is just incredibly well placed for a ripple out effect from London.... however, Telford homes is probalby better placed as it develops inside M25..... but they have a much higher rating and the next increase should be to ripple outside London.... as people buy second homes etc...

Slapper

[redtelephone] 03/5/2007 18:52

I'm have the the same sentiment as you slap.Who dares wins- that's how I succeeded in the past & that's how I'll do it in the future.The prospects are too good on OKD to cash in.There will be a steep rise in share price when the results date is given and then a big leap when the results are declared.There is so much upside & so little downside this is a gem of a share.Excellent 06 results apart,ther will be a good update on 07 figs/further land/development/ aquisition news & the integration of the company we swallowed up.£3.00 Share Price in 6 weeks at least.

PS-I think OKD will revert back to a private company within 12-24 months -that's the only way I can explain lack of PR to us shareholders.(Like a former company I was invested in many years ago called Banner Homes- where I doubled my money in a year.)

[slapdash] 03/5/2007 16:42

you've got to have balls in this business...

the underlying drivers for this business are good and the sale can't of been from a director...

so I stay long..... and will buy more if anything.... on a P/E under 6X for this year there is some good marign of safety there...

telford homes is on more than double the rating.... bigger players on less admittedly but probably with less upside...

Slapper

[spaceparallax] 03/5/2007 15:35

You could be right - I see that a few chunky PI Sells followed suit. I'm sitting tight, but it has deterred my imminent top-up.

[slapdash] 03/5/2007 14:52

probably the wife of that guy who was divorced just selling asap....

we shall see... results SHOULD be soon...

[spaceparallax] 03/5/2007 14:24

Rather a worryingly large SELL just went thru'

702K @199p

The ubiquitous untimely Director dealing or is someone in the know?