Oakdene Homes Share Discussion Threads

[spaceparallax] 17/9/2007 12:54

Interestingly, the juicy Greenspan interview just happens to coincide with his new book - not that he would dream of whipping up fears to boost his sales!

[cockneyrebel] 17/9/2007 12:22

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Alan Greenspan, the former head of the US Federal Reserve has warned of a possible downturn in UK house prices amid rising interest rates and a global credit crunch, the Daily Telegraph reported. "There are going to be some difficulties," Greenspan told the Telegraph in an interview.

"Can (the boom) last? No. You're already beginning to see the mortgage rates are moving; a lot of the two-year fixes are going beginning to unwind. It's going to turn, it's got to turn."

Greenspan also warned that Britain is more vulnerable to the effects of the credit crunch than the US.

"In Britain, the housing (market) hasn't turned yet, and the consumer households are more subject to interest rate changes than in the United States," Greenspan said.

In a separate interview in the Financial Times, Greenspan said US house prices are likely to fall significantly, predicting that the decline "is going to be larger than most people expect."

The former Federal Reserve chairman said he expected prices to fall by a large single digit figure "as a minimum," adding that he would not be surprised if the fall was "in double digits."

Over the weekend, UK building society Nationwide, publisher of a closely-watched survey of UK property prices, warned that it expects UK house price growth of just 3 pct next year, about half its estimated level for 2007 as a whole.

Analysts have said financial difficulties at UK mortgage lender Northern Rock, which was forced to seek emergency funding from the Bank of England last week, is likely to sap consumer confidence, weighing on house price growth.

[spaceparallax] 17/9/2007 10:44

Slap,

You are still alive! Whilst the Management at OKD need to improve their PR and comms, I think you're unfair to describe them as the most highly questionable.

Admittedly, their gearing is high and must be managed carefully, but most of that has arisen from their substantial landbank acquisitions i.e. debt for real assets.

Clearly some saddos are delighting in shorting OKD and others, but realistically this shouldn't present a problem because they aren't needing fresh financing. In fact it simply presents long termers like me with a top-up opportunity.

Each to their own I suppose, but I do find the shorting process rather vandalistic.

[crazy russian] 17/9/2007 08:52

re questionable management......

they must be prety sharp IMO
they have certainly run rings around the various directors of the companies they have taken over
Honeygrove...springs to mind they certainly stuffed the shareholders on that one
I believe one or two directors kept their jobs however

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[cockneyrebel] 17/9/2007 08:46

Shorted today - no builder will be immune

CR

[slapdash] 17/9/2007 08:09

buy to let brigade won't buy any of these flats I don't think...

most highly geared house builder and with most questionable managemnet...

will have to see how they get on... as I have said before why go for low quality companies when you can buy Barratts on say 7X.... and Barratts actually has cash flows unlike OKD whose profits are entirely non cash backed..


slap

[spaceparallax] 12/9/2007 14:37

Presumably we should be seeing the interims very soon.

[spaceparallax] 24/8/2007 16:23

Trendie,

You're correct - that fact is acknowledged within the tip.

[ffedup] 24/8/2007 15:59

As the roads and airports become more crowded, many more people will like the idea of their own boat moored in a marina. With the Southampton waterfront site and now Newhaven harbour it is a marvellous opportunity and as the years go by the EPS should rise enormously.

[trendie] 24/8/2007 15:43

didn't they also recommend buying them when they were 200P not so long ago.
latest deal sound exciting, but gives them big exposure to a single area.
what do you think?

[spaceparallax] 24/8/2007 11:09

IC Buy tip today.

[spaceparallax] 21/8/2007 10:12

Big news. I wonder what it'll cost - hopefully not too great a strain on the coffers. Certainly tremendous potential to occupy us for a long time.

[spaceparallax] 13/8/2007 11:49

I've seen quite a few tips on Litcomp - don't hold though.

[spaceparallax] 10/8/2007 15:53

Looks like we're suffering like most other shares.

[slapdash] 09/8/2007 17:59

hmmm.. this share had a higher price 2 years ago!!!!!

It is a difficult call... rates will go to 6% and possibly higher..

this has lots of debt and weak cashflow...

on the other hand it has lots of strong projects and housing in this country is very strong and unlikely to correct in the South East...

All comes down to your view on housing really..

Personally I think I woudl probably go for one of the majors such as Barratts as they don't have the level of debt, have cash flow and are professionaly run...

Oakdene has more risk and is cheaper so maybe it has more upside... interims will certainly be intereting..

Slapper

[slapdash] 27/7/2007 09:53

space - I guess some posters here put 10-20% in each share and so get worried about it all...

I might look at this again but my worry is cashflow... compare it to Barratt's which has cash flow backing up earnings per share in the year's ahead.... this has produced negative cash flow for the last two years!!! and much worse than EPS....

so quality just doesn't seem to be there..slapper

[spaceparallax] 26/7/2007 12:14

How impressions can deceive! I've about 5-6% of my portfolio in OKD.

I'm now at the stage where I have few shares that I'm really concerned about, having wheedled out what I consider to be the weaklings. The only things that really get to me are situations of gross leakage or continual deceit by management.

Fortunately, my EPY holding is small, but I do have tremendous sympathy for the big holders there - such a fall from 25 to 4p in a few months. Sadly, that's often life with such young companies that are exploring innovative markets that offer potential big reward but also many unforeseen risks.

[slapdash] 25/7/2007 20:28

space - you must truly have only 1-2% in each stock as you don't tseem to take anything badly... just permanently mellow...

Slapper

[spaceparallax] 25/7/2007 18:25

Certainly has been a history of strangely timed Director dealings at OKD

[slapdash] 25/7/2007 12:15

space - don't you love it when directors to this.. sell about £2m worth of shares...

and then after it goes down buy £25k to say how much they believe they are underavlued...

do they think we are stupid.. slapper

[spaceparallax] 25/7/2007 11:09

Good luck, see you around.