Nwf Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 20/10/2003 12:29

They are having another nice day again D.

Considering the yield and the record of 6 years double digit profit growth I still think they are excellent value. Reliable earnings growth is worth a lot.

Mears - Pre tax over 5 year - 0.82m, 1.07m, 1.93m, 2.51m, 3.61m
NWF - Pre tax over 5 year - 1.63m, 3.09m, 3.40m, 4.21m, 5.05m

Mears eps over 5 year - 1.54p, -1.17p, 0.60p, 3.81p, 4.46p
NWF eps over 5 years - 24.52p, 25.28p, 28.55p, 36.94p, 43.80p


There's not a busting lot of difference between the performance of these two, although different sectors they both have good reliable earnings growth.

Balance sheets on both are solid.

I'm not saying there are direct comparisons but as far as performance and reliability of earnings goes they are similar.

NWF trades on an historic PE of 10.8, Mears on an historic PE of 30.8. NWF has a much greater yield of 3.27% where Mear's yield is 0.75%.

I'm not expecting a PE of 30+ but NWF has gradually been re-rating and I would expect more. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them do 50p eps in the year ahead and trade on a PE of 15 by then if the market stays firm - 750p? If they miss that by 20% and only hit £6 I'll be happy as its one of my steady backround holders.

CR

[diogenesj] 15/10/2003 17:46

Just musing, really, CR. Sold a few of mine when I got nervous about the general market in September, but of course they never faltered. Still have a long-term holding.

[cockneyrebel] 15/10/2003 16:58

Sorry D, didn't realise you had posted here as I'd missed the headline and ten to regard this as a background 'steady eddy'

The nature of this beauty is that it seems to bounce off the uptrend support, which is around about now - hence my buying another 2K today.

Everyone is chasing the hare here but from experience I seem to find these tortoises get there just as quick without the volatility.

Been flat for a month while the market has risen a bit, great yield, long term good earnings growth trend too - not many with an earnings history like this one - 6 years of compound double digit growth and they sound proud of it and looking to build on it.

I think the warehouse consolidating for Tesco is a big vote of confidence in this company and will show benefits over the next 12 months.

One to keep the 'safe money' in for me Diogenes - prefer to be in and out of the speculative stuff with prices at this level myself.

CR

[diogenesj] 19/9/2003 13:52

What's your view on these now, CR? I've been holding since May and June, they're up about 30%, and they now look fairly fully valued. I keep wondering whether it's time to sell, and then they creep up a few pence more and I wonder whether I'm missing something. :-?

[cockneyrebel] 18/9/2003 14:18

Nice rise today - a good steady background stock imo.

CR

[a0002577] 12/9/2003 18:23

M.T. - I agree with them BUT hope not too many others do - I am a happy holder of these and don't really mind about the share price as long as the dividend keeps on rising - which they have a history of doing

[m.t.glass] 12/9/2003 15:44

"..We believe a substantial rerating is due. Buy up to 425p. Target 562p."

(This month's newsletter from broker FHF Group, whoever they are, when price was 385p)

[diogenesj] 06/9/2003 10:37

Thanks, AOO. You've certainly done well with that Close Bros trust.

[a0002577] 06/9/2003 09:46

Diogenes - Have had them for a long time - 1996 to be precise before our beloved chancellor changed the rules. Can't do that now unfortunately.

As to VCTs - well actually I suppose I was lucky - investing in Close Bros which returns something over 8% on the initial 100 pence (rather more on the actual 40 pence) and is currently trading at a premium to net assets. Totally agreed on VCTs being lousy investments generally BUT there are some opportunities to buy from distressed sellers at bargain prices. Have a look at Guinness Flight(GFV)

CR - It was sort of tipped by BearBull in the IC (post is bad and only got mine this morning)

[diogenesj] 05/9/2003 23:53

Hi CR! One of you is probably right. :-) As AOO says, the volume was remarkably small for such a big rise. I've been tempted to sell some of mine recently: good profits, and the valuation is beginning to look fairly full, but I'm glad I didn't.

AOO: forgive my ignorance, but how did you use it to roll over capital gains? I knew you could do that with VCTs (most of which have been disastrous investments), but I didn't know you could do it with AIM stocks.

[a0002577] 05/9/2003 20:03

CR - Good to see you here as well

[cockneyrebel] 05/9/2003 17:58

Bet it's getting tipped at the weekend, Sunday Business again is my bet.

CR

[a0002577] 05/9/2003 16:31

Yes, Diogenes, Saw that and wondered why. Wasn't a large volume that moved it either. I suspect that stock is tight and any purchase is going to move the price. Many of us can't really sell as we used the stock to rollover Capital gains elsewhere - one of my better ones I'm glad to say!

[diogenesj] 05/9/2003 15:53

Up 18p today, and I wonder why. Has it been tipped somewhere?

[wjccghcc] 12/8/2003 14:03

Thanks for that ChrisG.

[a0002577] 12/8/2003 08:46

ChrisG Just thank your lucky stars that you hold shares in a northern company - away from London when things are going well we are apt to understate rather than overstate.

[chrisg] 11/8/2003 23:59

WJCCGHCC - In last year's annual report, there wasn't a deficit. It was a small surplus, which was being amortised over, I think, 18 years, by crediting the P&L account. I presume the reference in today's statement to higher pension costs reflects the fall in the markets through 2002 which may well have wiped out the surplus, and therefore caused extra costs this time around. Have to wait for the Annual Report to find out.

Generally, and despite the confident interpretations put on the Chairman's statement about the future, I was a little surprised to read the words the Chairman used. Nowhere does he refer to prospects of a further increase in profits for the year. He merely highlights the added employee costs that will have to be paid this year, and says "My colleagues and I are confident that the Group can continue on its path of generating excellent returns for shareholders." That does not say "increased profits". There can be no doubt that this year has seen excellent returns for shareholders. The Chairman merely looks forward to more of the same. Does that mean the same profits rather than higher profits? Will the benefits of better trading be wiped out by the greatly increased employee costs which the Chairman made great play of in his report?

Lets be clear, NWF is not about to go pear-shaped. It is too well managed. But I am not so bullish in my interpretation of the Chairman's outlook statement as some on here. I believe the company has suggested that the coming year may be one of either no-growth or low-growth, so far as bottom line profits are concerned. Maybe the company is being ultra-conservative in its comments, thus retaining the ability to surprise on the upside, if they are too pessimistic, but that is how I read the outlook comments. Anyway, we shall see. Time alone will tell, of course.

[wjccghcc] 11/8/2003 14:07

Results look good but what's the pension shortfall?

[cockneyrebel] 11/8/2003 07:15

What a cracking set of results - just read them, solid as a rock.

Beaten expectations by 10%
6th year of sixth year of profit and divi growth.
6th year of compound double digit growth.
Retail side seeing 18% growth, 7% like for like - top retail performance.
£9m cash generation.

Soundly run, sound balance sheet, reliable growth year on year, reliable divi growth year on year.

All of this and the stock trades on a miserly PE of 9 for the year gone and a PE around 7 going forward.

Beautiful chart.

All this growth and reliability of earnings growth plus diversification and confidence going forward must be worth a PE of 12 going forward at least in my opinion.

£4.50 short term, £5+ medium to longer term at least imo.

Tipped by the better press tipsters on numerous occasions - they are going to get tipped plenty more over the coming weeks/months imo.

CR


------------------


Financial Highlights:

* turnover up 9% to #169m (2002: #155m)
* record pre-tax profit, up 20 % to #5.05m (2002: #4.21m)
* increased profits again from all four businesses
* basic earnings per share up to 42.6p (2002: 36.7p)
* dividend per share increased again to 14.8p (2002: 13.0p)
* six years of compound double-digit growth

On the outlook for the coming year Roy Willis added: "My colleagues and I are
confident that the Group can continue on its path of generating excellent
returns for shareholders."

[a0002577] 09/8/2003 15:30

Hi again

Agreed with all of that except for getting more interest in the city. A long time ago a friend who runs a small Venture Capital outlet advised me " Go as far away from the city as you can to get advice" This has served me well over the years.

Have held these for years and am very pleased with them.

John

[cockneyrebel] 09/8/2003 15:27

By the way, Agricultural side may be doing much better too with Foot & Mouth well out of the way.

For anyone interested, here is a very enjoyable read:

Here's a link to Brokerlink - quite a handy site to read up on certain stocks. Click "Brokerlink Report"

[cockneyrebel] 09/8/2003 15:03

Hi A0002577,

I agree, this is a very well run business, nicely diversified too. I would imagine the current warm weather is doing good for the garden centre side :-)

Extremely well run business I think - the last few years they have consistently posted great results too.

26% rise in pre tax in H1. If they grow earnings just 15% for the year that's a PE of 9 and a 3.4% yield - cheap for a stock that has a record of delivering - a good yield that's as safe as house and good steady solid growth.

Won't surprise me to see them do more than 15% growth for the year tho.

I think the city folk will finally wake up this time. I've seen NWF get mentioned here there and everywhere - I think there's plenty watching for these results and prepared to buy on them.

Probably add more myself.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 08/8/2003 16:16

Ticking up, results on Monday.

CR