Nwf Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 17/7/2003 14:15

More today D - :-)

These are so beautifully diversified and have such a good record I fail to see why they trade on such a low rating. Great yield too.

Seem to get tipped by all the value-gurus and I'm sure they'll get great coverage again on these results.

Well north of £4 after the results - still trading below trend started May 01.

CR

[diogenesj] 16/7/2003 00:40

Creeping up again today. Looks as though we can expect a nice run up to those results.

No, you're not the only holder, CR!

[cockneyrebel] 11/7/2003 14:27

Further move up today.

If the H1 growth translates into full year then these are going to do 48p eps for the year - a PE of 7 and a 3.8% yield that is likely to rise a good 10% as the interim did.

Have a look at a long term chart - very consistent, as is their growth.

Results Aug 11

H2 is their 'big half'

CR

[shuisky] 10/7/2003 00:55

no- happy to hold this, and still think its v cheap. Hopefully, they will use the strong free cash flow to pay back some debt. I also expect a dividend increase. Chart looks great, and hopefully the 340 resistance level will be busted by the results. A policy of buy high-sell higher, is better than buy low-sell higher, IMHO.

[cockneyrebel] 08/7/2003 17:56

Am I opn my own here heading towards some exciting August results in a stock that flies on good news?

CR

[cockneyrebel] 08/7/2003 13:26

Just bouncing this am - results Aug 11 - a nice profit to be had between now and then imo.

Interims were up 26% - company confident about H2 - don't be fooled by 12.9p in H1 - H2 is their big half and they look set to do 42p eps or there abouts for the year.

4% yield too

CR

[cockneyrebel] 27/5/2003 10:16

Buyers in there this am - one of the most beautiful 3 year charts you'll ever see imo - dropped below its normal trading range in all the gloom but heading on back up there now.

CR

[m.t.glass] 13/5/2003 08:40

Up again this morning, ahead of trades. Not heard anything, CR. Higher than average volumes during recent sideways spell significant?

[cockneyrebel] 12/5/2003 15:45

quite a few buys today and the price moving up - were these tipped anywhere?

CR

[shuisky] 13/4/2003 11:56

good news from Dobbies Garden centres augurs well for NWF garden centre sites...

[shuisky] 10/4/2003 09:56

If you like cash generative small caps with big divi's why not take a look at PHP & HILS. Both reliant on gov spending and are safe bets, IMHO.

[cockneyrebel] 10/4/2003 08:20

NHP - another little cracker with a great long term chart just bouncing too - more liquid than NWF - worth a look bigman

CR

[bigman] 10/4/2003 07:29

Just lurking arround and found this thread, did a bit more research on the company as I had no previous knowledge of it and it looks to me like this has possibilities, so have joined the nwf appreciation society and having stuck a few away I will add again today, looks a safe home for my cash at these levels and lots of upside.Thanks to those who contribute to this thread

[cockneyrebel] 09/4/2003 16:41

Well it looks like today might have been the day the market woke up to the oversold nature of this stock.

I don't believe they have any problems at all in the animal feed side and investors are ignoring the diversified nature of this business being four businesses in one. Throw in the five year track record and the high yield together with the low PE and this is a steal.

inbestors sell, the price falls so investors sell. Sometimes takes a while to break the circle in an illiquid small cap.

As for the PE - well the historic PE is 7. But with H1 profits up 26%, translate that into the whole year and you get 46p eps this year on the go - a PE of 5.6.

CR

[8 ball] 08/4/2003 18:32

The UK has been hit harder than the US.
Both NWF and Wynnstay (wyf) have done well increasing their market share, as other small feed producers have gone.
One other growth area for Wynnstay was pet foods.

Interesting to compare the two companies.

NWF on a PE of 7 at present compared to WYF on a PE of 5.5

That gives a 30% differance for two identical companies.

[shuisky] 08/4/2003 17:42

8 ball- many thanks for our comments.



I looked at the results as well, and plotted CRM against NWF and CWK. Since the new year CWK & NWF have followed each other quite closely downwards whilst CRM has continued to outperform.

My first thought was that the greater US exposure of CRM was mtigating agaist some problems in the UK livestock industry. Looking at CRM's results, I find it quite confusing. We get this....

'Agriculture sales levels, and margins especially, remain under extreme pressurein the compound animal feed sector, due to both excess capacity in the industry and continued delays in a return to full stocking levels in our selling areas, notably the North West of England and South West of Scotland. Our sales teamhas worked hard and together with tight cost control across our activities has achieved improved results against this background.

Then we get..

'Caltech, the UK feed blocks business, continued to progress steadily in both the UK and Continental Europe.'

and then...

'Sales of our feed blocks, in the UK, Continental Europe and USA, are at higher
than budgeted levels and performance from both our compound animal feed and
fertiliser businesses is encouraging, which bodes well for the second half of
this financial year.'

which is immediately followed by...

'Agriculture in the UK still has a number of serious problems to confront and, as this continues to be the major part of our activities, we will not entirely
escape the consequences of these problems but have nevertheless continued to
make progress in the period under review.'


It's possible CWK is suffering from a contraction in the pig industry (they market the pigs for farmers and sell feed to the same farmers, and so are doubly exposed to problems) and NWF is just being sold off by nervy investors.

FWIW, I dumped CWK and will hold NWF.

[cockneyrebel] 08/4/2003 13:07

Well CRM's results today seem to show animal feeds doing okay.

NWF are diversified well and the 26%% profit increase in H1 just has not been acknowledged by the market imo.

The increased divi bears out their confidence as does the outlook statement.

The thing about NWF share price is that it moves erratically on very small trades. I've sat hear and not been able to buy at a reasonab;r pre-set limit because the price was rising so fast. A line of sellers has triggered a fall imo and this has trigger further selling, it has now got in a rut on few sells. Looking at the way ther price moved back up this am on onlyy a few buys of 500 it looks like rising strongly on a bounce too.

Anyway, bought some yesterday at a steal - added this am too - spread and dealings covered by the big divi.

CR

[8 ball] 07/4/2003 21:58

Shuisky

Livestock numbers will never get back to pre foot and mouth levels in the UK.
I own shares in an identical company to NWF (Wynnstay group) much better value IMHO.
At the recent AGM they said that pig stock levels were badly hit in the UK, however poultry was higher.
Pressures on milk prices continues to reduce demand for dairy feed.

With changes to farm subsidies in the future, livestock levels will continue to fall.
Both companies need to increase their non-farming areas.
Wynnstay are in the process of taking a 50% stake in a company selling cut flowers, they are also using their property portfolio to build housing, and industrial premises.

If both companies can reduce their exposure to the farmer, then they will have a bright future.

[shuisky] 07/4/2003 16:52

Hi CR, good to have some activity round here. Agree with your points. With petrol prices coming down post-Iraq, the Fuel distribution division will benefit, and so will the running costs of its food-divisions distribution. So, I would expect sentiment to be turning positive.

The second half is their most important, so investors may be taking profits, whilst awaiting developments. CWK is also slipping inspite of a similar track record and also affirming guidance. I'm not in the UK, so maybe missing something here. Are there any problems with livestock in the UK? Since, CWK & NWF are both heavily into animal feed?

[cockneyrebel] 07/4/2003 10:58

Is this one of the cheapest stocks around now?

Great profits growth record, superb divi and divi growth too.

Wyevale going up nicely lately, due to the fine weather I guess - must be doing NWF some good too on their garden centre side.

Company already said its confident for the year after posting 26% profit growth.

Looks like a very cheap buy and hold at 20% off its high and for no reason imo.


CR

[shuisky] 11/2/2003 13:26

Hmm, One of the tabloids (mail on sunday?) apparently tipped this again on Sunday hence all the small retail buys these last two days. I can't get a firm quote from my online broker, which begs the question which brokers are you guys using??

[m.t.glass] 10/2/2003 11:59

Hi shuisky,
Still holding CWK longterm. But did hedge against current fall by opening a downbet on it on 15 Jan. Also bought BTB and BBC.

[shuisky] 08/2/2003 19:12

Hello Senor Glass, it seems you like the 5 year eps growth stocks as well! Similar to Cranswick I think the time might be right to buy in here. I hate buying falling knives but both are seeing some stability in the price action...