Natwest Share Discussion Threads

[chiefbrody] 09/4/2024 20:04

Be a shocker if the next Fed move was up. With the amount the US is printing, inflation gonna be around for a while yet. Boss of JP Morgan thinks rates could go to 8%. Love to see 8% over here and the carnage in the housing market.

[polar fox] 09/4/2024 16:39

Saving rates are falling like ninepins.
For example, the 1-yr cash ISA was at 5.05 on Moneyfacts, now, in no time, the highest is 4.80. Yesterday, Shawbrook returned after the new tax year started at 4.91, with 5.00 just above them; 5.00 was pulled later yesterday, so Shawbrook pulled their 4.91 today and are now back at 4.76. There's a scramble on to lower rates across various maturities; Paragon, Virgin, everyone scrambling.

[polar fox] 09/4/2024 15:41

US CPI tomorrow. A year ago, the monthly increase was only 0.1, which will be very hard to match, so the consensus is a rise from 3.2 to 3.4. That sort of outcome won't sit well with the Fed and a rate cut most likely will be off the table on May 1 at the next FOMC meeting, therefore. The consensus for core inflation is better, a tenth lower than last month, but not enough to move the dial, IMO.

Our headline inflation updates Wednesday next week. Last year, the monthly increase was 0.8 and we should see that beaten. The consensus won't be out until Friday, but I have seen one house forecast of 0.3 lower than last year, y/y 3.4 down to 3.1 therefore. Will the MPC cut on May 9? I doubt it, especially if the Fed stands pat.
But that MPC bunch can be hard to predict...
Next month should see a significant drop as last April's monthly increase was 1.2 and this year we have the energy price cap cut, just implemented. We could see something fairly close to 2% for CPI announced in May.

People are talking about the ECB cutting in June. Might we see the Fed and BoE doing the same? maybe, but who knows? at this stage.

Nice trading, kiwi. No harm in taking some S/T profit.

[smurfy2001] 09/4/2024 12:58

The last time there was an off market purchase was 22 May 2023 (4.95 per cent of the Company’s issued Ordinary Share capital) so keep an eye in May.

[kiwi2007] 09/4/2024 10:57

sold 40% ...Nigel's ban was the best thing that's happened on the market for me for ages...silly price drop. Price might stick here for a bit.. need a clue to see which way it'll develop.

[f56] 08/4/2024 19:46

The UK tend not to give up without a fight in the end!

[smurfy2001] 06/4/2024 20:05

We're kissing 8000, 9000 next?

[chiefbrody] 06/4/2024 15:08

Undeniably cheap big cheap for a reason. Will it ever change. That's all I want to know.

[smurfy2001] 06/4/2024 13:50

Very good article.

This is the debate around the UK. British shares are historically very cheap and have been since the Brexit vote. On the p/e measure of actual declared earnings (‘trailing’), they are 18 per cent below their average of the last 15 years. When compared to the US p/e, British shares are now half price.



Uk is super cheap.

[smurfy2001] 06/4/2024 13:50

Britain must cut stamp duty on share trading to revive flagging stock market, leading City brokers say

[skinny] 06/4/2024 07:35

Its becoming more and more like a game of musical chairs - increasingly frenetic.

[polar fox] 06/4/2024 07:07

Bloomberg - storyline of article. We live in extraordinary times:

Tories Weigh Unity Cabinet Led by Mordaunt If Sunak Can’t Hang On After Local Elections

Premier faces moment of danger at local elections next month

Big losses for Conservatives could trigger internal challenge

unquote

Will they dare? We shall see after the votes are counted.

[johnwise] 05/4/2024 22:10

VIDEO

Governments Sleepwalking into Debt Trap with Alasdair Macleod

[gcom2] 05/4/2024 15:49

It's stopped for a rest today roll on 350p (35p)

[polar fox] 05/4/2024 11:45

HMT still selling like crazy - they must welcome the higher share price Now below 29%.

The percentage of voting rights held by HMT in NatWest Group plc (NWG), as shown on this form (28.90%), has been calculated following the disposal by HMT of 83,806,845 ordinary shares in NWG since its last TR-1 notification on 25 March 2024.
unquote

[netcurtains] 05/4/2024 08:26

chiefbrody: I think richer people tend to thing the 'sanctions' against the UK for Brexit are bigger than the sanction on Russia for invading Ukraine....
Hence people (globally) tending to avoid UK stock market... However this has created an opportunity for canny buyers to get good stocks cheap with great dividends...

[chiefbrody] 04/4/2024 20:58

Not sure if the government will go through with their tell Sid offer now. Do Labour have a position on this?Better maybe to just keep selling into this rise (as they have been doing).Probably always a tough sell anyway since we hate stock markets (in general) in this country. Apparently us Brits are still dumping UK shares and investing overseas (or in overpriced housing tat).

[cogs1] 04/4/2024 20:27

With the increase over recent weeks/months I'm at around my target price...that said, I'd appreciate any opinions/views about what the impending gov sell off will have on share price short/medium term. If the gov. are gonna sell at a discount won't the share price just drop to that level....if so why doesn't everyone who currently has shares sell now and buy back when the sell off happens. As a novice investor I'd appreciate any comments

[triktrak] 04/4/2024 19:57

Before the financial crisis in 2007/8, I believe most banks were valued at 1.5 times TNAV. So, today, that would equate to about £4 per share for Natwest. Maybe one day we'll get there.

[smurfy2001] 04/4/2024 18:46

delphiman, going on past buybacks, former.

[chiefbrody] 04/4/2024 16:46

Historically I recon 10 ish over here. Basically if the FTSE/UK wasn't a basket case, the likes of Lloyds/Natwest would probably have share prices nearly double where they are now. Maybe Labour can turn the sinking UK ship around. Lol.

[delphiman] 04/4/2024 16:01

I take it the PE ratio should be in the range of 8.5 for a bank normally

[delphiman] 04/4/2024 15:59

smurf, this 15% :-
I wasn't sure how to understand that, did it mean 15% of what was originally sold to the government so it makes the governments holding, 14.9% or does it mean 15% of the 29.9% they hold making only a total of 4.5% off the whole making it 25.4% the government would still have to get rid of.

[chiefbrody] 04/4/2024 14:37

And we're back where we were a year ago.

[smurfy2001] 04/4/2024 13:53

delphiman, you forgot the P/E of 5 and yield of 6.23% or the potential to buy back a whopping 15% from the government in 1 year.