Natwest Share Discussion Threads

[smithie6] 06/3/2024 12:03

Barnes4

....think about the total value of NWG when controlling shareholder is the uK Govt (& all that goes with that), let us call it "X"

To the total value of NWG when the UK Govt is not the controlling shareholder, call it "Z"

That is what I think is happening here.

...(Sid etc etc, irrelevant if take a 9-12 month view imo)

Is it possible to predict with accuracy the chart movement between X & Z ?
No.

So, just forget trying to do that, imo.

======

Alternatively one can just see that it goes up 1-3% every day (despite the Govt selling tens of millions of shares !) & get on the bus ! (Without needing to be a certified mechanic for this model of bus).

[barnes4] 06/3/2024 11:28

Because Sid will sell

[polar fox] 06/3/2024 11:25

Yet another TR-1, squeezed in under the wire. Hunt can talk about a 32% holding now.

The percentage of voting rights held by HMT in NatWest Group plc (NWG), as shown on this form (31.85%), has been calculated following the disposal by HMT of 97,726,255 ordinary shares in NWG since its last TR-1 notification on 26 February 2024.
unquote

[smurfy2001] 06/3/2024 11:21

Why would loads of shares come onto the market?

[barnes4] 06/3/2024 11:05

Why is the price going up every day when potentially there could be loads of shares coming to market very soon?

[smurfy2001] 06/3/2024 11:01

Blackhorse23, LOL

[skinny] 06/3/2024 10:08

So the price keeps exceeding recent highs and a Government share sale is in the wings...

[blackhorse23] 06/3/2024 09:51

Money moving to METRO BANK

[smurfy2001] 04/3/2024 15:13

That stake surely won't be 7bn. Maybe ~5.8bn after the directed buyback.

[smithie6] 04/3/2024 14:50

Are you referring to the past share sale for Royal Mail shares or for the possible NatWest share sale of some/most of the Govt's stake ?

----

Interesting that that article says that a big sale of the Govt stake might not take place. Interesting.

[barnes4] 04/3/2024 14:35

Unbelievable this all very strange and disturbing

[smithie6] 04/3/2024 14:32

248.0p
:-)

[skinny] 04/3/2024 08:14

The link :-

[polar fox] 04/3/2024 08:01

Well, well - for me, this changes everything and probably helps to explain the share price action last week.
From the Times:

NatWest share sale may combine ‘Tell Sid’ with institutional offer

Treasury officials are believed to have asked advisers to draw up plans for a twin-track sale to the public and large investors that would maximise proceeds
unquote

[polar fox] 03/3/2024 10:19

Doh! I'll continue to make do with whatever crumbs the paywall offers then.

[skinny] 03/3/2024 10:13

My subscription expires soon and I won't be renewing due to the price hike.

[polar fox] 03/3/2024 10:01

Good follow-through, Skinny. I'd like to suggest you employ that MO in future, rather than provide links that actually give no access to (relevant) Times articles. ??

[netcurtains] 03/3/2024 09:03

you can photo the article then post the image... Or is that cheating?

[polar fox] 03/3/2024 09:00

Since your Times links are always hidden behind their paywall, I'm afraid they don't count, Skinny.

[skinny] 03/3/2024 08:51

Probably not the sort of mention you meant!



and a brief mention :-

[polar fox] 03/3/2024 08:17

The latest Regression polling is out, based on 15,010 people, for last month.

Labour's predicted overall majority is 260.
LAB 455 CON 113 LD 40 SNP 18 REFM 10.2% no seats

The commentary is:
Labour's lead over the Conservatives fell back slightly from 20% to 18%, but this still translates into a very significant Labour victory. Reform UK continue to win around 10% support, much of which comes from former Conservative voters. It is also getting clearer which seats the Lib Dems are likely to win, and in which others they will be behind Labour.
unquote

Changing tack, I haven't found a single mention of NatWest in today's press, the attention seems to be on Hunt's desperate last-minute scramble to find funds - ANY funds! - for a tax bribe. Thank heavens the OBR is forcing a degree of financial discipline on the gov't - we may be spared a contrived Tory "dash for growth"!
The implication for the NatWest retail sale, it seems to me, is that it absolutely has to be successful, attracting the 2m investors that Hunt indicated last month, with strong demand. It will need to be priced accordingly.
The whole Budget situation is at a fascinating point, with only three days to go.

I reported a few weeks ago that Ladbrokes have 12 December pencilled in for the GE. That continues to be the case. I'm keeping an eye on it.

[smurfy2001] 01/3/2024 22:03

I don't get the current buy back, the 1st one isn't finishing the 2nd one is just peanuts.

[chiefbrody] 01/3/2024 17:03

Not gonna happen. They won't openly let a huge UK bank be taken over by a foreign predator. With our pathetic bank valuations, this would already have happened. UK banks are not for sale (sadly for suffering shareholders).Anyways, great run here. Disappointed I didn't buy more several weeks back. Still cheap but feels like I've missed the boat. Will wait for a pullback. Shirley cannot keep going up if they want to sell them to the great unwashed.