Northern Foods Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 25/10/2017 16:39

VIX has jumped a bit, to 12.6.

[wllmherk] 25/10/2017 16:37

I don't know Aleman but BT.A is my largest holding and it is causing havoc with the folio. I am now in negative territory for the year. Results Thursday 2nd, I'm praying they are positive.

I must admit I have never known such a disconnect between the DOW and the FTSE. The DOW was always a bit more than double the FTSE, its currently more than treble the value. My worry is when the DOW goes into correction mode I bet that disconnect disappears and the FTSE falls just as fast as the DOW.

wllm

[aleman] 25/10/2017 16:36

Was your FTSE100 short still open, Skinny?

[skinny] 25/10/2017 16:33

Good Afternoon.

Half term duties - a day out at the Horniman museum today.

Finally?

[aleman] 25/10/2017 16:31

And is AT&T a US economic bellwether? It missed divisional forecasts across the board and seems to be behind today's US and UK sell-offs.

[aleman] 25/10/2017 15:42

Is BT still an economic bellwether?

[aleman] 25/10/2017 12:36

I found this interesting. The US economy is supposedly doing well on the back of string employment trends yet this is the explanation for missed Q3 forecasts:



Management believes many of the Company’s revenue categories continue to be negatively impacted by economic conditions (although improving), including underemployment and slow middle class economic recovery, changing demographics and media entertainment consumption and poor weather.

Did underemployment and the others get worse in Q3 !?

[aleman] 25/10/2017 11:40

Why is the pound now roaring ahead (1.2$cents, 1.0Ecents) after only jumping marginally (0.3$cents, 0.3Ecents) after GDP figs? And why is the FTSE100 now flat (after intially falling 20 points on GDP figs) when it usually performs inversely to the £?

[aleman] 25/10/2017 11:37

And, perhaps, an irony: contributing 0.05% to 0.4% GDP growth was software/programming and, on the day this is published, we get two warnings from software companies - and one of them, LRM, specialises in servicing financials, which are supposed to be doing well! To be fair, I think they are both more global than UK but it does add to the growing list of profit warnings/bad results.

[aleman] 25/10/2017 11:13

Another observation is that Construction reported its second negative quarter so is being reported as in recession. We had a commodities and engineering recession in 2015/2016 and a possible shoes and fashion/food retail recession in 2016 that is showing some signs of abating. I still tend to think we are going into a normal recession but also still harbour the thought that it might be a rare rolling recession where a downturn works its way through different sectors at different times over a few years. Even if the former, the fact that some sectors have already retrenched in the last couple of years makes it likely that any any normal recession should then be less severe as not as many sectors would have fat left that needed cutting.

[aleman] 25/10/2017 10:47

November rate rise odds now put at 84%.

[aleman] 25/10/2017 10:35

Another odd result is "Employment Activities" is listed as a strong sector, at +3.5% Q-o-Q, when listed recruiters have been reporting that positive international operations have been offsetting negative UK results of late.

I've just seen that the Guardian has reported the strong motor sector is a "surprise", given the profit warning from UK's largest car retailer.

[aleman] 25/10/2017 10:04

Pre-registrations are included in the falling numbers already.

I struggle so much with recent GDP numbers when so many indicators say things are slowing or negative. Van sales are usually a good business indicator and they've been falling for 12 months. GDP error could be in the order of +/- 1.5% for first estimates yet there is already chatter that the +0.4% figure will persuade the B of E to raise bank rate next month, even though most of the economy but for financials looked weak and that could easily be revised away. I find it very hard to believe there will be no downward revisions. Look at corporate news and things clearly got worse in Q3, and there were signs of underlying weakness in employment figures.

(US results this week continue to be mixed but probably ahead of (very weak) forecasts. There have been several Q4 outlook statements that have been revised lower though, so it's likely we'll see total market expectations for Q4 revised down a bit. Meanwhile, share indices went up again!)

Year to August showed GDP +1.5% and GDP per capita +0.9%. Now we know error is high but it is interesting that this still says UK population is up 0.6% (350k?) in a year when we are being told immigration has fallen so much that jobs are not being filled and it is putting pressure on labour costs! Which one is wrong?

[shadowside] 25/10/2017 10:02

Aleman, Pre regs maybe? Assume they get recorded as sales?

[aleman] 25/10/2017 09:59

Q3 GDP first estimate +0.4%. A good show from business services and finance rescued an otherwise weak showing. Trouble is, the weak bits probably employ a lot more people and the strong bit is more likely to see significant revision. Construction was down. Accomodation and restaurants were down. Transport and distribution was weak. Apart from the history of underrecording slowdowns until after revisions, I'd still suggest this looks like a weakening general economy anyway. Can financials continue to get stronger to lift the overall picture or is it just a blip , probably helped by talk of interest rate rises that might not happen (or is it just error that will be revised away)?



And how did they get 1/10th of the 0.4% rise down to wholesale and retail trade of motor vehicles when Q3 sales were so poor? Okay used and repairs might be up, but they usually follow the new trend to some degree.

(They actually point out in this bulletin that about 45% of the data is real and 55% is "modelled".)

[shadowside] 24/10/2017 19:16

Drove back from York this morning in heavy rain. Very treacherous driving conditions with lots of standing water. NYCC seem to have given up gulley emtying so lots of blocked drains. Hard to see the water in the half light until one side suddenly looses traction.
Reasonable day on the markets with ZOO +6.6 BVC +4.3 CTO +3.8 UBI +3.7. Only significant faller was LWB -2.8 leaving me +0.5 for the day and +17.9 YTD. BVC seems to have suddenly gained traction after being becalmed for 5 years and must be +40% over the last few weeks. Always promises much but never quite delivers. Debt and cash generation good though.

[blueliner] 24/10/2017 18:24

-0.22% for the Folio, [FTSE250 -0.09%}

Worst value fallers : CNCT -7.1%, BGO -2.5%, ASY -2.5%, CSN -1.8%, NG. -1.3%.

Highest value risers : MCLS +2%, KCOM +2%, MANX +1.9%.

Not sure what sparked the mid capped telcomms rally but it offset the CNCT fall, which was probably not helped by a small piece in last w/e MoneyWeek entitled 'Be glad you didn't invest in these'.

Mainly overcast with heavy dark clouds at times Max temp 19C.

[aleman] 24/10/2017 17:43

Not a good day for me. A very mixed bag but several red ones were significant, chiefly BEG and CNCT, and recent purchase VLTY keeps falling. I topped up on CNCT on a double figure yield ahead of Thursday's results. I'd actually started the day positively, quickly up to +0.4%, but then managed to finish at the low of -1.0%. I've not had anything like that for a good few weeks.

A grey and wet day, though mild but not really feeling it. 17.0C after 9.8C. I was pleased the sun came out for the school run but that was about it.

[deanforester] 24/10/2017 17:38

I'm down -0.050% on the day today (FTSE100 +0.028%).

Worst falls: NG. -1.28%, AZN -1.19% and INDV -1.12%.

Best rises: CLLN +6.29%, S32 +1.89% and PSON +1.29%.

Another day of not much happening. CLLN perked up a bit on news of fund raising and disposals. Not enough to cheer holders up, though.

Went for a haircut this morning. +13°C and drizzle most of the day.

DF

[freddie ferret] 24/10/2017 16:42

Dow keeps going up too fast IMHO, is it just the tech stocks?

[aleman] 24/10/2017 15:40

US has started brightly today after a lot of mixed results probably leaned more to positive. However, ad stocks are plumbing 2-4 year lows. Traditionally, they lead the cycle up and down so perhaps investors should worry about chasing other stocks to ever higher P/Es as some ever lower forecasts get beaten. If market earnings are supposed to grow strongly again in Q4 and FY2018, why are companies holding back on marketing budgets?

[aleman] 24/10/2017 10:37

The sound is not picked up well at Valley Parade. The spanish "ole"s from the crowd were much noisier than the video suggests. The melee and chatting to other officials is not even included in the clip. There was a couple of minutes of handbags involvling most payers and consultation with linesman and 4th official, then a couple of minutes actually trying to book players that the referee had not seen commit offences. I'm not sure it seems that funny from the video and crowd noise but it was agreed it was the funniest refereeing incident we had ever seen by those there. (The video is just after the text.)



If the last one did not tickle your fancy, this might:

[hazl] 24/10/2017 10:29

45945

That is amazing skinny!

[skinny] 24/10/2017 09:14

Euro Manufacturing PMI's all green so far.