Northern Bear Share Discussion Threads

[ramridge] 08/11/2017 07:08

fillipe - I have just noticed that there are no institutional shareholders, so not surprised at a lack of broker interest. I take that as a positive.

Couple of things to mention.
1. On current ratings, PE = 6.8 , sector average PE = 12 ; no debt ; with double digit eps growth. Sounds like this share is vastly undervalued.

2. Stocko's Stockrank =99 , highest rating it can give to any one stock

A passing mention. The company's website is horrendous. Somebody ought to tell them to come into the 21st century. It smacks of early clunky websites.

[fillipe] 07/11/2017 20:24

simso, thanks and your thinking is not at all ott.

They peaked at abt 169p on 23-7-2007 and imo the company is in many times far better shape than it ever was, then 10 yrs ago.

150p - bring it on!

A 5p div for yield expectations of say 3.5% would also imply a share price of 142p.

Also to mention that with only 18.4m shrs at NTBR, that total number of shrs will not be too far removed from the number of 10 yrs ago......one of the things where I feel they deserve much praise for keeping off the dilutive route.
f

[simso] 07/11/2017 19:20

Having made £2.4m PBT(11.3p eps) last year, I am actually hopeful we may get north of £3m this year, with eps 14p-15p.

I would be hopeful of at least a modest organic growth TY on LY, given the comments about strength of Order Book at the start of the year, and indeed now for second half. Organic growth of (say 5-10% growth)would give +£0.2m, plus (say) £0.4m for Peel's part year, plus £0.1m for lower Interest Costs than LY as we are debt free. Those three building blocks take us just north of £3m and 15p EPS.

Given that profit turns consistently into cash in this business, we are debt free, and a consistent record of profitability over the last decade, I think a rating of 10 times current year forecast would be fair. This would imply 150p is possible, and certainly do not regard my assumptions as "racy". As ever, happy to hear anyone else's view on this...as we don't have Broker Forecasts to critique!

[fillipe] 07/11/2017 16:58

Really excellent news - looks as though eps will now be a touch more than my share price cost price. Very pleased to have held for so many years.

ramridge
7 Nov '17 - 15:54 - 789 of 790
Does anyone know broker forecasts before this update? thanks

In all my years of watching and holding NTBR I haven't come across a single broker forecast since Nov 2011, when Cantor Fitzgerald had them as a Buy @ 11p, with a tp of 46p.

I think that at one time Beaufort Sec's used to cover them, but maybe when they (B/fort) had a different name.

Peel, now a part of NTBR, looks a pretty smart outfit.

gla,

f

[xajorkith] 07/11/2017 16:00

Only just seen this (very odd time to release it) but delighted nethertheless & much as expected given previous guidance.

Agree 90p+ near term and much more further down the line.

Those A1 guys must be kicking themselves.

[ramridge] 07/11/2017 15:54

Does anyone know broker forecasts before this update? thanks

[its the oxman] 07/11/2017 15:23

Might even get a newspaper tip now.

[its the oxman] 07/11/2017 15:22

Yes should climb into results and justify more after. Would expect it to easily clear 90p with reiterated outlook for 2H. Time will tell.

[thevaluehunter] 07/11/2017 15:17

EV/EBITDA c3x very good value here chaps and I would expect to see some positive momentum.

[gary1966] 07/11/2017 15:11

EPS 13p+ this year and establishing a record of increasing profits. Personally will be disappointed if we only get to 90p. Looking for £1.30 in the first instance and will review at that point.

[its the oxman] 07/11/2017 15:08

Nice. Back to 90p surely.

[gary1966] 07/11/2017 14:54

I bought 9400 at 14:11 and thought I would send the co an e-mail asking if they had a date for the interim results as last year they were released on the 8th November. Impressed that within 40 minutes they have released a trading update. Can't fault investor relations on top of all the other things I like about this company. Very pleased with the update.

GLA

[curlly] 07/11/2017 14:54

onwards and upwards
Could there be an interim div?

[thevaluehunter] 07/11/2017 14:49

Update out now!!!

[its the oxman] 01/11/2017 14:33

Results date anyone? - early November I believe. Hopefully it will give us a decent bounce.

[xajorkith] 01/11/2017 13:37

Another (former) manager of A1 & his wife selliing their entire holding.

Thoughts anyone?

Edit : not suggesting anything untoward btw, just speculating about the coincidence.

[simso] 31/10/2017 10:11

I agree this is unlikely to be anything to worry about. The share price has risen strongly this year, and there is a good chance his NTBR shares were his major asset. Cannot blame him for wanting to cash in

[cc2014] 31/10/2017 09:43

Looks like Mr Tennick acquired his shares in 2008 following acquisition of his company. He looks about that sort of age when he'll be thinking about his retirement...

[royaloak] 26/10/2017 15:04

Xajorkith, my take also, the fact that such an amount have found a home quite quickly is also positive.

[xajorkith] 26/10/2017 14:56

Can only speculate on their reasons but would be far more worried had it been one of the group directors.

Explains the recent weakness & that large trade though.

[royaloak] 26/10/2017 12:39

Mr and Mrs Tennick have sold their entire 3.21% holding. he is joint MD of Transport Division, not on the main board.

[royaloak] 25/10/2017 16:33

Another of my favourites ALU in a similar sector have been a touch weak recently. statement due tomorrow so could be of interest.

[royaloak] 24/10/2017 22:27

Ditto your last paragraph Mach100, I thought the same, so for the same reason I added.

Some good and informative comments today guys,thanks, lets keep our fingers crossed now, I hold CTO also.

[mach100] 24/10/2017 12:29

Good post cc2014. Another sale at 69p just reported but this time only 50k.
I don't know why someone would take a gamble on the construction sector to fall as the government are really going to throw the kitchen sink at the sector to tackle what is possibly the number one concern among the majority of the electorate. I don't think any of the construction companies' SPs are yet up with events as many had suffered due to teh rumoured demise of HTB. Northern bear as a becoming established recovery play in the wider construction service industry is probably even further behind events and we could see good growth from here.
When I saw the fall today I honestly thought some RNS had come out. When I saw none I have added further at just under 70p. A similar update to the last one and we will be 90p when the next news comes out.

[xajorkith] 24/10/2017 12:05

Does feel like that CC2014.

Certainly something weighing on the construction sector of late, presenting some real bargains imv.

Nice reversal here off the previous June/July high.