Northern Bear Share Discussion Threads

[elmbury] 01/5/2010 12:10

wow - great effect Stegrego - would you like to say that it is going bust and we should hit 50 pence :).

[stegrego] 29/4/2010 21:34

Looks like it cant get out of the down trend.

[tomoslewis] 26/4/2010 12:52

This is a very quiet Thread! I am still here and holding. It seems that the market is waiting to see the results. I suppose it is inevitable for there to be some selling after such a significant rise on the trading statement. Not too log to wait though.

The difference with this stock in my opinion is the maturity of the businesses that make up the group, the lack of exposure to new build (13% of turnover if I recall correctly) and that the business model is to expand through acquisition. With the support of their bankere, there should be potential for this.

[tomoslewis] 17/4/2010 12:44

Article from NE Business



Extracts from the article:

"BUILDING services group Northern Bear says its markets are finally starting to pick up and it hinted the worst of the downturn in the sector may now be over. The Chester-le-Street firm, which runs 14 building services operations, issued a cautiously optimistic trading update to the financial markets ahead of the publication of its full year results for the year to March 31. AIM-listed Northern Bear, which saw sales drop to £17.4m in the first half of its financial year from £23.4m, while profits dipped by 66% to £0.7m, said it now expected its full year results (pre-exceptional and restructuring costs) to be at the higher end of market forecasts. Chief executive Graham Forrest said: "We have been very careful about saying we were on the upturn. The facts speak for themselves. The group said it made a "significant reduction" in its net debt in the two months to December 2009, which had hit £10.6m by the end of September, and also made a "substantial improvement" to its working capital.
Northern Bear said it was "delighted" that those trends had continued through the second half of the year and the increasing activity in the building services market meant it was looking forward "with cautious optimism"."

[tomoslewis] 16/4/2010 14:14

Good to see the continued respones to yestarday's trading statement together with an improved spread and increased trades(trades being typicaly within the quoted spread); as well as last night's 30,000 sales not denting the quoted price.

Lets hope that we see further increases on the way to the results return.

At 38.5p still 40% below Seymour Price's updated target.

[tomoslewis] 15/4/2010 23:12

Northern Bear included at the end of the following article.

[tomoslewis] 15/4/2010 12:47

Seymour Price, before the TA estimated turnover in yr ended 2011 of £34m with EPS of 5.2p increasing to 5.9p in 2012 and a price target of 37.5p. So the increase in target to 55p shows confidence in NTBR. No reason, with the contract wins with the public sector, for further recovery and return to the 11.5p EPSlevels earned in 2009. IMO

[tomoslewis] 15/4/2010 12:41

I can see that Seymour Price have reitterated their strong buy recommendation issued in February with a target of 55p. That's conservative in my opinion. Plenty of headroom from here.

[tomoslewis] 15/4/2010 09:43

this seems to be rather a one sided discussion at them moment .... Good to see that the market has started to recognise the impat of today's trading statement but I believe there is some way to go, getting quite exited at the prospect.

[tomoslewis] 15/4/2010 09:00

I see from an earlier post that eps of 7.6p is anticipated for this year and more than 11.5p for next year. Plenty of recovery potential here imo, seems to have been left behind in the stock market recovery.

[tomoslewis] 15/4/2010 08:26

Looking at the price of trades over the last month, trades typicaly seem to be closed to the mid market value. I looked at this company earlier this year, from a value perspective, but the lack of news put me off. Am happy to hold for the results now, and make a good return.

[tomoslewis] 15/4/2010 08:16

really good trading statement imo especialy the recovery in markets and reduction in working capital, so i have bought a few at 29p most trades showing as sells though?

[solarno lopez] 13/3/2010 06:44

As usual Jon Pither has caused mayhem with his buy and build strategy or should that be buy and collapse strategy

[stegrego] 12/3/2010 21:30

Yep, usual T1ps.con pumped up rubbish.
Avoid.

[pugugly] 12/3/2010 16:58

just dropped by to see if worth while bottom fishing - (imo after a quick look at the accounts NO WAY)

Assets mainly intangible and very high level of debt.

I am not even sure I would be tempted at half the price. This coy could wll be run by the banks for a few years and has probaly suffered major disruptions in the last 2 months due to the weather.

any other thougts ???

[littlealbatross] 09/3/2010 08:12

blue
I think that Jon Pither left Northern Bear (where he still has about 13% of the shares) to set up Southern Bear.
He was also at Tanfield Group (Co. Durham,electric vans and work platforms) a few years back and has recently been (re)appointed chairman of Tanfield to replace long time associate Roy Stanley.

[blueliner] 08/3/2010 20:02

SL
A broker, who shall be nameless, tried to hawk Southern Bear to me when floated, share price never done anything, never took the bait anyway.
Is there a connection with NTBR, which I always thought was similiarily uninvestible.

[solarno lopez] 08/3/2010 16:06

is it because Jon Pither is a director and he has just resigned from SOUTHERN BEAR after a massive profits warning

[littlealbatross] 08/3/2010 16:02

Springs division are near to completing reroofing about 30 bungalows for Derwentside homes at Tanfield Lea.Wensley are doing similar on about a douzen or so bungalows a mile away having recently reroofed part of the local junior school.'Plenty on' according to one of the roofers.

[johnstonp] 27/1/2010 10:32

moving down and can't see why

[smarm] 18/1/2010 15:49

On the move, does anyone know why?

S

[johnstonp] 22/12/2009 15:56

one hell of a spread on NTBR now !

[petse23] 22/12/2009 14:31

...In terms of outlook, Northern states that "while the economic environment continues to be challenging", it is "cautiously optimistic" that the "marked improvement" in trading experienced since the period end is sustainable. Cognisant of the stated margin pressures and public sector spending environment, we are reducing our current year underlying pre-tax profit forecast from £2.5 million to £2 million (earnings per share from 9.5p to 7.6p), though the upbeat message on current trading gives cause for optimism that our reduced forecasts may be beaten materially and this is a company which should benefit significantly from an economic recovery kicking in. Having remained robustly profitable in plainly dire conditions, we expect earnings per share to be heading above last years 11.5p in pretty short order (perhaps as soon as next year) and with the new and improved banking facilities helping balance sheet certainty, at 41.5p, continue to rate the shares as a buy with a one year target price of in excess of 100p.


The whole article is here:

[moathunter] 18/12/2009 14:27

Any thoughts? Yes- a manager at Yorkshire Bank is clueless about risk.