Nmc Health Share Discussion Threads

[rabbitfoot1] 01/11/2019 17:48

What just happened to Fitbit' shareholders is something to keep in mind:

As NMC's share price keeps hitting new lows for no apparent reason (in fact, contrary to reason), NMC is becoming an easier takeover target by the likes of Fosun, and should this happen, it would translate into tremendous value destruction for the current shareholders. Like I said in my previous post, I believe this sharp decline is nothing but manipulation, engineered for some obscure purpose that we should all be weary of.

[rabbitfoot1] 01/11/2019 17:47

What just happened to Fitbit' shareholders is something to keep in mind:

As NMC's share price keeps hitting new lows for no apparent reason (in fact, contrary to reason), NMC is becoming an easier takeover target by the likes of Fosun, and should this happen, it would translate into tremendous value destruction for the current shareholders. Like I said in my previous post, I believe this sharp decline is nothing but manipulation, engineered for some obscure purpose that we should all be weary of.

[alexka1] 01/11/2019 17:30

I note the further small reduction in shorts by Portsea ysday. I wld expect some further short covering. Hopefully we have reached the bottom. Bad week and next week start of a new week.

[rabbitfoot1] 01/11/2019 10:59

From memory, the news of the Fosun interest in NMC is what shot the share price up, therefore it is not what is bringing it down. On the other hand, I find really strange that the current sharp fall coincides with the company's pending share buyback programme which they said aims to "take advantage of exceptional price volatility". Who stands to benefit more from the fall in the share price other than the firm itself??? I also find strange that nothing has been heard from or about Fosun since that one and only article back in August - was this real news or fake news, engineered by the company for some obscure purpose? The share price is obviously being manipulated, and I can't believe that ordinary shareholders are not afforded greater protection by the system from such fraudulous practices. IMO this company should be investigated. As for me, all I want now is for the share price to appreciate sufficiently that I can sell all my shares at a reasonable price and never return.

[hjs] 01/11/2019 10:28

From memory, the day (Aug) Muddy Waters issued the note that they were going to issue a short report, initially everybody thought it was going to be NMC and the share price dropped but recovered the following day when it was Burford.
NMC has very high debt and when I read about related party transactions I want to keep away from that company. NMC is a FTSE 100 company and has to comply with a lot of disclosures so it would be very difficult for people like MW to publish similar short reports like Burford which is an Aim stock. IMO, the recent news about the 40% stake by the Chinese company (FOSUN?) has knocked the share price of NMC. the same Chinese company bought a big stake in Thomas cook and see what happened to them and today I read that the same company now wants to buy the TC brand with the intellectual property assets!

[steeplejack] 01/11/2019 09:56

Like most people,I find myself more concerned with the poor performing constituents of my portfolio than the good performing shares.Quite why the buy notes of the likes of Goldman Sachs,Morgan’s and others should fall on stony ground is a puzzle,one I’d rather not have to solve.That a few hedge funds (plus our friends at Jeffries) should rule the roost despite such reputable buy recommendations is a worry and I’m not altogether sure how long it will take to return to the sunny uplands of £30 plus.Like others, I suspect,I hold on to a core holding while being tempted to trade stock at these lower levels for the promise of a quick turn (with varying degrees of success).The recent lurch down from £24 has caught me out.

[alexka1] 01/11/2019 09:45

Unfortunately, one aggressive (and manipulative?!) seller can lead to such a drop in a thin market. But he should have learned a lesson from AQR, he will end up closing his position at a loss and be short squeezed.
MS was not the only one publishing a piece since CMD, so did GS, JPM and few others. and are all very positive and constructive. Once again, i think its great value for any investor getting in at these lows. I may be biased as I am obviously very long :)
but i do think that analyst research, management updates and results speak for themselves. Share price will follow! :)

[steeplejack] 01/11/2019 09:32

The Morgan Stanley note throws up assumptions about exchange rate movements.Ordinarily,all analysts will have to conform to the house view of currency and in this case,it would appear that MS are forecasting a pretty sharp appreciation of sterling against the dollar.The EPS forecast for 2020 is $2 per share rising to $2.4 in 2021.The target price is predicated on a 20x PE on 2021 earnings.That would give you a target price in dollars of $48 which MS translates into a sterling price of £33-45p.That implies that MS are working on the assumption of a £/$ xrate of 1.44.That's a strong headwind for an overseas earner.If you were to take the current xrate of around 1.30 you would get a MS target price of nearer £37 on the same assumptions.What is a concern is that Morgan's can come up with a solid buy note and the shares promptly fall from 26 quid to 22 quid in a matter of days!

[alexka1] 01/11/2019 09:02

Agreed steeplejack. MS note is sensible and covers it all. most importantly to me MS sees any accounting or related parties transactions claims immaterial, after doing an in depth research on company. The former claim was led by short sellers back in the summer that have - for the most - started closing their positions. Recent price action has been led by one big short seller, but in my opinion only creates opportunities for value investors to get in at a low valuation. I must admit the volatility and the drop is hurting very much, but lets not forget how fast this stock can climb aswell.
As you mentioned, the regulatory approval is under process for the buy back and should get the regulator's go-ahead anytime soon as mentioned during the CMD call Q&A, then an AGM will be called within 14 days for a vote. This shld support the stock, and push away some of the short sellers. the FY2019 results seem to be clear, especially after the guidance confirmation, and the growth expected in 2020 is sensible (nothing too crazy), so yes current P/E is abnormally low for a profitable and growing company, in a growing and promising sector, in a region that needs it and with a management that has been proven successful. I am hoping for a year end rally from current bottom, hopefully back towards the 30 handle especially as buy back gets approved and voted on within the next 30 days.

[steeplejack] 01/11/2019 08:30

I like the Morgan Stanley report.It successfully identifies the bull points but also identifies the bear case ie high debt,competitive pressures in UAE,vulnerability of U.K. investors to stronger sterling,regulatory pressures.The stock stands at a 10% discount to global peers.Interestingly,the MS target price,around the £33 -34 mark,is a large discount to the price of £40 plus seen a year back.The broker is suggesting the shares should be on a PE of around 25 on 2020 earning projections.ThatR17;s not unreasonable.


I’d like to think that share price volatility will start to dissipate but who knows given recent experience.If the stock falls back to twenty quid ,the PE multiple will be around 15 which is very cheap especially given share buy back plans.One my larger holdings is Astra Zeneca.That stock hasn’t suffered the trials and tribulations of NMC.A switchback ride necessarily tests commitment.to the shares.

[yertiz] 31/10/2019 16:29

alexka1 - whatever. Your losses must really be hurting. I'm safely out of NMC and free of the ramping community of which you are distinctly part of. I won't bother you again as obviously you know better than me, being a rank 'professional'. Good luck with your investment, you are going to need it.

[alexka1] 31/10/2019 13:44

FOR ALL NEW PEOPLE OR MISINFORMED INVESTORS. Below a link with the latest two pieces from Morgan Stanley on NMC. They have written a good introductory piece on NMC, since they have just started covering the company (along with a research note).
This will give you good insight about the company.
I feel a lot of people are misinformed on the company and there has been a lot of misinformation or non-professional talks on this forum. I would encourage you to get and read the latest pieces by JPM, GS, Barclays, HSBC, Citi. All available on bloomberg or via your broker.

[alexka1] 31/10/2019 11:15

Yertiz, are you really 60y as your profile states ? You sound to me like a raging immature kid... Your way of writing and arguing reminds me of Trump's way of tweeting :)

[yertiz] 31/10/2019 10:33

What the F....?

Tracywalton...bot extraordinaire....the stock may have opened at 2218, then it went down, up, down, sideways and again down. 3,764 proves what exactly? They're just numbers that bear no relevence to anything to do with NMC.

At the point of writing, I see that initial 1.60% has disappeared, gone, lost, diminished.

There's only one way this stock is going currently, and that is sub £20.


Oh, and TW - you're filtered.

[tracywalton] 31/10/2019 09:25

The stock opened at 2,218 today showing an increase of almost 1.60%. The company has maintained a good year on year of 3,764 proving that investing here is actually a good decision.

[aquaesulis01] 30/10/2019 18:45

Well the fundamentals for this company remain compelling and this 30th Oct headline makes compelling reading. "The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia are top-tier economies in the Gulf turning to pharma and hi-tech industries to wean off lacklustre oil demand"

Multimillion-dollar deals
In Saudi Arabia, the region's largest sovereign state, the turnover of the pharma market reached $8.2bn in 2018; OSDs accounted for $3.5bn and biological and biosimilar drugs $1.6bn. But, the proportion of local drug manufacturing is only 20%, so the National Transformation Programme (NTP) was launched to increase production up to 40% by the end of 2020. Measures to achieve this include the streamlining of regulatory processes and price protection for locally produced medicines.

The region's openness to import and desire to up local products and services make it a very competitive platform for business

The NTP is part of the Kingdom's Vision 2030, a scheme to diversify the economy and promote greater private sector involvement. Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salaman revealed in October that the current wave of privatisations, worth 2bn riyals ($533m), will finalise by the end of 2019.

Hand-shakes on healthcare deals have already happened. The SAR6bn ($1.62bn) agreement between Abu Dhabi-based NMC Health and Saudi investment firm Hassana will see the former acquire and develop facilities in the country.

[yertiz] 30/10/2019 16:49

Pumping has mysteriously stopped, but surprise surprise, the dumping has started - as I predicted. Sub £20 is going to happen sooner rather than later, my target is £18+ to buy back in.

[hjs] 30/10/2019 15:41

Something has spooked the SP! Has shorts increased? or new shorter like MW come in?
Despite no negative news from the company, the share price has been going down for some reason!

[podgyted] 30/10/2019 15:05

Jeffries penned another sell note????

[steeplejack] 30/10/2019 14:53

They better get cracking...

“The Company is also in process of attaining regulatory approvals for the up to US$200m, opportunistic buy-back program announced earlier this year”

It’s now difficult to see what the company can do to restore investor confidence to the levels enjoyed a year ago.What does NMC do,keep emphasising that everything’s going swimmingly?There would appear to be deep rooted concerns which private clients and a number of brokers for that matter,are unable to illucidate.

[tgkg] 30/10/2019 13:20

It's chance to grab it cheap, just checked ccc index and is on the bottom, from here the price will go up, knowing this share the price jumps fast so as soon as it starts moving it jumps up really fast not giving chance to buy cheap again

[yertiz] 30/10/2019 09:33

I got out with a very decent profit yesterday morning, the bounce was a surprise, but only up 30p more than my exit point. Initial buy was at £4.75, then sold half at £33, bought more at £22, sold most at £28 and now out completely. Still watching and waiting, but without the fear of pins and needles, thanks. GLA.

[gary38] 30/10/2019 08:38

https://twitter.com/nmcnews/status/1189438044346241024?s=19

[gary38] 30/10/2019 07:09

In advance of its Capital Markets Day this morning, NMC Health plc ("NMC" or the "Company"), the leading private healthcare operator in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) with international services across 19 countries, is pleased to confirm that business performance in the second half of 2019 is building on the strong trends seen in H1 2019. As a result, management expects the second half of the year to be stronger than the first and reiterates full year guidance across revenues, EBITDA, net income, leverage and cash flow conversion. Furthermore, NMC's strategy continues to offer substantial advantage over competitors in all key markets the Company operates in. Consequently, FY 2020 is anticipated to deliver double digit top and bottom line growth.