Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[eeza] 23/11/2019 16:47

Yes, Barnett puking some of the ones he took off Woody at 240p.

[ramellous] 23/11/2019 16:47

Regarding Debenhams, see this RNS from April.

RNS Number : 6563V
NewRiver REIT PLC
09 April 2019

NewRiver REIT plc

("NewRiver" or the "Company")

Statement regarding Debenhams plc

NewRiver notes the announcement this morning that administrators have been appointed to Debenhams plc ("Debenhams").



For the purposes of clarification, NewRiver confirms that its total rental exposure to Debenhams is £0.1 million, which represents less than 0.1% of the Company's gross rent roll. NewRiver has no Debenhams stores in its portfolio, and the rent payable relates to an entrance to the Debenhams store in Middlesbrough from the mall of Hillstreet Shopping Centre, which NewRiver owns.

[hpcg] 23/11/2019 15:45

Anyone with a substantial position should look through the entire portfolio, same for any prop co really. There are some good supermarket anchored properties, some good hotel anchored locations, but also some locations with and surrounded by voids where over capacity will deflate rents for all. The pub component can be reasonably assigned NAV. With respect to the earlier conversation about exposure, they aren't over weight to any one company, so there isn't the risk of a catastrophic customer failure, its the cumulative effect that hurts.

Anyway, this is not so important for the share price, RNS just before the close with a reduction in the Invesco holding. Should be what, another 10 or 15 of those to come?

[eeza] 23/11/2019 14:56

Must try harder Specc.

Not the answer they were looking for.

[kenmitch] 23/11/2019 10:46

It really is worth clicking on this link to find the full details of their retail portfolio:-



I've had a look at each one. If clicking on the blue outlines for each shop the name of that store appears or if is to let or whatever. Or just scroll the list.

I've had a quick look at every one of the larger outlets. Amazed at how often, the likes of troubled stores like New Look, Debenhams and M and S appear. What's more where it seems that M and S is scheduled for closure is shown too as underneath the map are the ones to let.

e.g click on Middlesbrough Hill Street Centre for starters and see there both Debenhams (bust after Christmas?) and then M and S to let. Who is going to want to rent those big Department stores????

It's great that NRR provide us with so much info.

BUT it seems to show clearly that they are way way too bullish about their portfolio. Unless.....I'm missing something? Either I am ... OR NRR are in denial!

It would be good if posters could have a close look at several centres and post how many troubled retailers are in their portfolio. Ditto where M and S and Debenhams are shown as to let.

[henchard] 23/11/2019 00:24

finkie

"I had a look at one of their small regional centres for sale I won’t say where ..."

Why not?

[fenners66] 22/11/2019 23:59

How many Clintons ?
or Debs
M&S?
New Look?

etc

[hugepants] 22/11/2019 10:43

"Indeed @finkie, and already in the NAV of course."

The NAV is 2 months out of date! I doubt many people are expecting the NAV to be higher by the final results given recent administrations/CVAs. and eg Abelmarle and Bond went under recently. NRR had at least 3 of these. Not a big deal on its own but these must be adding up.

[spectoacc] 22/11/2019 08:29

Indeed @finkie, and already in the NAV of course. A good sign if they're then selling for higher than NAV.

(As an aside - are NRR "early" with the JVs, are c.9% yields high enough?)

[finkie] 22/11/2019 08:26

I had a look at one of their small regional centres for sale I won’t say where but 40% empty and it had been written down from £5m plus to its below its ultimate sale price of circa £1.5m....possibly one of the worst examples but still an example of some real rubbish in the portfolio.

[spectoacc] 21/11/2019 19:18

That part I agree with @fenners666. I usually find the notes to the accounts the most enlightening, particularly when they stretch on for pages!

My point was that you can't criticise NRR for their headlines, whilst conveniently picking one out yourself (the statutory loss) ;)

[fenners66] 21/11/2019 17:58

Spec with regard to the host of adjusted BS in accounts I am not picking on NRR here I have been making the point about loads of companies even those that have done me proud.

Once upon a time exceptionals were just that and accounts were vanilla.

Directors are now so focussed on spin that they will major on any * adjusted BS to publish on page one and with some accounts you don't find out the extent of the losses until you actually get to the stat p&L on page 120 or so.....

[kenmitch] 21/11/2019 17:17

Thanks for the replies.

Today NRR said:-

“Current Valuations are 87% underpinned by the valuation of the next best alternative use for each of their assets.”

Sounds reassuring.......except that who would want to rent a big Department Store in current retail environment? That 87% assumes the unlikely letting of all forthcoming vacant properties.

Interesting too that M and S store in NRR’s Middlesbrough portfolio is shown as “to let” which suggests it’s closing. I haven’t checked but afaiaa Marks have not announced that store is closing.

Haven’t yet ploughed through their portfolio to find out how many others include Debenhams and Marks, but there could be several more.

Having read the Liberum note it reads very much as based on talking with NRR rather than some of the facts glossed over in the NRR update today.

e.g they are confident the dividend will be maintained with spurious reasoning to back that up.

[minerve 2] 21/11/2019 16:40

I think in some areas or shopping centres the department stores could be viewed as positive and not negative. They will act as anchors for the remaining shops. Some of these anchors bring value to the other shops. It is easy to get into black and white thinking but not all department stores and mid-market fashion shops are loss making in all areas. NRR probably would agree but from a PR perspective their mantra works. Retail isn't dying it is just adjusting.

[minerve 2] 21/11/2019 16:35

Ken

They use the word 'negligible' as against something like 'zero'.

Of course the word 'negligible' is handy because it can harbour a reasonable amount of subjectivity.

[spectoacc] 21/11/2019 16:33

If they're listed as To Let, that means they're empty I assume? Ergo, no Dept Store exposure.

@EI - good point re "geared play". Funds the divi too of course.

And my once-a-week reminder - NRR is one third pubs.

[kenmitch] 21/11/2019 16:26

Can’t square this. Can anyone please?

Liberum in their buy note today (250p target price) said:-

“In contract to other listed REITs NRR average rents remain a low £12.49psf
WITH NEGLIGIBLE EXPOSURE TO DEPARTMENT STORES (my capitals).

Yet their portfolio seems to include several Debenhams and also Marks and Spencer.

e.g look at their Cornhill Centre in Darlington and Hill Street in Middlesbrough.
Both Debs and M and S are listed as to let!

[finkie] 21/11/2019 15:49

personally i hate companies that run unsustainable payouts, it shows weakness, until shareholders feel asset values are realistically priced and the dividend is covered and sustainable they could price to anywhere at the moment. I see their market cap dropping to £450m and the payout should be halved in the short term, whatever happened to shore up the balance sheet and hold cash rather than paying it all out with a smoke and mirrors excuse for it will be ok further up the road we hope....

[asmodeus] 21/11/2019 15:45

When it comes to"moral principles and intelligence" Minerve2 (1998) please would you try and apply this to your language. :)

[propinv] 21/11/2019 15:43

HugePants. You ask the obvious question, why not cut dividend? This differentiated portfolio narrative is garbage. It's like the sub prime argument, when AAA sub prime which was differentiated made it appear better. It is not.Going back to the dividend, the case for this share is reliant upon keeping up the narrative. If that cornerstone goes, well....

[essentialinvestor] 21/11/2019 15:29

Perhaps a little more complex. The borrowings effectively give a
geared play on NAV.

[finkie] 21/11/2019 15:14

What i mean is that whilst all these shares trade at a discount to NAV the 10-20% additional asset write down that is surely coming will affect the share price as the nav gap will have to be maintained as basically no one believes the board or the valuers!!!