Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[chucko1] 11/10/2019 11:33

It�s all Brexit for now. Sold a tad for trading profit. Talks can collapse quite easily.

[spectoacc] 11/10/2019 11:15

Up with the other UK stuff on possible Brexit deal, but not forgetting there's that juicy 5.4p XD next week - often get a rise into that too.

[chucko1] 11/10/2019 11:04

Probably about 9.25% covered with incremental rental revenue and asset management fees. They target 100% coverage for next year. Let�s see what progress they are making in their HY results.

[2wild] 11/10/2019 10:57

Great to see these trading above 200p. Only topped up less than 24 hours ago at 187.16p.
No reason why these should not continue rising to 216p giving a 10% yield or 8.5% on a coverd basis.

[spectoacc] 11/10/2019 10:34

Wasn't it 175p? Either way, he's a muppet.

[chucko1] 11/10/2019 10:32

So Woody sold out around 155p. Just 30% higher now. What more to say?

[chucko1] 11/10/2019 10:31

It was at 249p, I think.

[speedsgh] 11/10/2019 10:22

Sorry for OT but pertinent to yday's convo re #TCG #Hays

According to today's Daily Note from Langton Capital...



The Local Data Company suggests that around 10% of the Thomas Cook stores snapped up by Hays Travel are actually within 100m of an existing Hays shop. It would be very surprising if there were not a material number of closures. The continued growth of the internet has reduced the need for most operators (or agents) to have a High Street presence.

[spectoacc] 11/10/2019 10:18

Barnett bought a few from Woody in the 240's too I believe - can't recall exact price.

[cc2014] 11/10/2019 10:09

SpectoAcc. this morning's seller now finished or possibly realised he can get a better price.

I am not entirely in agreement with you on Barnett. He's been buying on the way down and I think he's realising them back into the market for a 5-10% turn.

However, as far as I can work out from the RNS's of that 26.76% only around 0.8% has been bought at a price he can shift for a profit here. His next lowest price is around 225 so I think we will gap up to maybe 240 where he will start selling on the ones he bought at 225.

I don't think there's anything too clever about what's he doing. If it falls back to 180 I think he will add again. Only looking at cable I dont' think it's going there ever again.

[chucko1] 11/10/2019 09:42

Wskill, I could not agree more. Still 11% yield, covered either in the main part or whole. Mind you, one or two imagine retail Armageddon in which case one would justify an exit now. Really? With BB bonds at sub 6%? This has just been a case of selling by poor risk managers.

[wskill] 11/10/2019 09:34

Without them selling we could never have been able tobuy shares in this quality company at this low price ,I for one am happy holding these in my sipp and isa ,long term seems to be a few months for many investors these days.

[spectoacc] 11/10/2019 09:23

@CC - 26.87%, at last RNS ;)

[cc2014] 11/10/2019 09:18

Right now on L2 there is really only one party selling. About 80% of the trades belong to them. One assumes it has to be Barnett.

The seller doesn't really care about the price. They are just trying to shift volume.

Once they are finished it will pop up. No way to guess how many they want to sell.

[chucko1] 11/10/2019 09:00

@Specto, this (non mistake) may in part be because he has superiors at Invesco. Perhaps some sanity prevails, unlike the other place.

[spectoacc] 11/10/2019 08:43

One mistake Barnett doesn't seem to make (and unusual for him not to make all the mistakes) is that he doesn't sell just the liquid things when getting redemptions. Probably Invesco-forced, but Woody does the opposite - "Oh, loads of redemptions. OK then - I'll flog all the liquid FTSE100 stuff". Barnett seems to flog a small amount of everything.

Assuming his redemptions have slowed, his selling pressure on NRR will have abated, and hence we get the slow drift back up towards a fairer value (IMO!) in the 220's ;)

[spectoacc] 10/10/2019 15:32

How much to remove all the TC branding........

[2wild] 10/10/2019 15:21

The main benefit for Hays is value in the fixtures and fittings. Desks chairs computers all fit for purpose. No need for major refurbishments which would be the case with other properties, as the layout for travel agents is very different to other retail premises.

[fenners66] 10/10/2019 10:54

As I said surely not enough other interest ?
555 shops are too many
So who else would take them all?

If there are 500 landlords or 5 they still have to negotiate with them - just that now they own the leases they have given the some tactical advantage to the landlords.
There must be overlap with the existing estate.
Now they will have closure costs and legal fees coming out of their ears.
Are they big enough to cover the cash drain for a couple of years ?

[speedsgh] 10/10/2019 10:37

"Why not negotiate all the rents down before buying the leases?"

The 555 Thomas Cook stores probably have over 500 different landlords so suspect it would be unrealistic to negotiate with all of those landlords prior to finally agreeing a deal, especially if Hays wasn't the only one in discussions to purchase the TC retail portfolio.

[spectoacc] 10/10/2019 10:31

I agree, but - do we know the terms?

They say the High St travel agent isn't dead. I'd say it isn't dead yet.

[fenners66] 10/10/2019 10:24

Going from 190 shops to 745 I would worry for them.
Why not negotiate all the rents down before buying the leases?
Surely there was not going to be much interest to add any impetus to the deal?

[speedsgh] 09/10/2019 16:38

They have presumably bought the leasehold rights from the administrators which would give them the right to continue trading at the various locations under the existing leases although they will doubtless wish to get many of the leases restructured, especially those that are over-rented (which is probably most of them). They are not buying the freeholds which are owned by the landlord of each site.

I note that they have already opened negotiations with landlords to reduce rents. Encouragingly the majority of their retail estate appears to trade profitably...

[cc2014] 09/10/2019 16:33

take over occupation. But I think you already know that

[ramellous] 09/10/2019 15:50

How can they buy the stores if they�re rented?