Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 19/11/2019 16:12

So there must be no borrow in the market for IG. Inevitably 100% are long if there are no short positions allowed. I have gone short using Spreadex instead where my account is much smaller and younger and where I assume I am still under the threshold where they hedge against. I doubt results will be encouraging enough to cause a pop whilst come the new year there will be another raft of shop closures after this poor holiday season. Most importantly though the drip drip of news about Barnett is pretty similar to what happened to Woodford.

[nickrl] 17/11/2019 11:23

fenner66 thanks for correction definitely wrong set of cards!

[fenners66] 16/11/2019 21:55

nickrl
16 Nov '19 - 12:59 - 1969 of 1970

"lessors hold all the cards in rent negotiations "

Did you mean lessees ?
The landlords do not hold all the cards - hence loads of retailers are jumping on the CVA bandwagon.

[wskill] 16/11/2019 19:29

At the end of the day prices today are below the cost of building new by a country mile this cannot go on forever some retail will have to be re purposed .

Cannot see that having much effect on NRR they are good at re purposing their surplus units ok maybe the divi will be reduced not a bad thing in the long run.

[nickrl] 16/11/2019 12:59

BLND and LAND both took the knife to retail as you would expect at this weeks interim's but with retail pks bearing the brunt at c10% This doesn't chime with with what other REITs are reporting about lease events, occupancy and footfall at there parks although i suspect valuers are on a slash and burn to keep ahead of the curve so NRR will be impacted to some extent.

NRR aren't immune to CVAs but not every CVA results in rent reductions across the entire estate and i note, from July trading update, that NRR escaped any real hit which included Arcadia impact. As to more recent CVAs detailed information is hard to come by as very few CVAs have given full disclosure through companies house (they arent obliged to) to know potential impact. Administrations will hurt of course and in the current environment lessors hold all the cards in rent negotiations in all but the most exceptional locations so sensible approach is flat dividend or if necessary dropping it back so its funded by operational cash.

[propinv] 16/11/2019 12:04

River man. It's a narrative they relay. Much lower rents. Much higher yields. Actively sought to avoid cVA cos. Of course the rents are lower. They provide out of town retail. Why does that mean they hold up better. It's like saying a clothing store in a shopping centre paying a low rent would perform better than a high end luxury brand because the rent on the first is lower. It does not work that way. If rents in a prime shopping centres fall to the levels of out of town retail parks, where do you think people will want to rent? What is that going to do for rents in our of town retail?CVA narrative was laughable as most of the big UK prop cos had less exposure as a percentage. There is some pretty serious marketing going on here in the presentations.

[riverman77] 16/11/2019 11:29

There will be more to come, although NRR will hold up better than those given much lower rents and higher yields across its portfolio. In other words, capital values are already low and less scope for dramatic falls.

[fenners66] 16/11/2019 11:10

Flicked through IC reading BLAND or LAND on of them it said is trading at -34% to NAV despite massive write downs already - clearly shows the belief is more to come....

[marksp2011] 15/11/2019 18:38

HPCG

Nope, they will just lay off in the market

[finkie] 15/11/2019 12:31

Read property week 8/11 retail bloodbath to come is the suggestion and NRR despite not having a lot of the big CVA tenants will be affected. I have sold my position now, but fully expect suggestion of a dividend cut and substantial asset write down.

FWIW i still like the reit but this could shave 25% off its price quite quickly IMO.

I am therefore watching from the sidelines for now.

Rights issue from Intu etc wont help sentiment here even if you argue its a slightly different animal.

Cheers

[dk37] 15/11/2019 12:15

hpcg

You are wrong

Here are the positions
: clients 100% long - 0% short

[hpcg] 15/11/2019 12:01

Just tired to short using IG, no opening allowed. That suggests there are already substantial bets against.

[marksp2011] 14/11/2019 19:16

Kippington

What is interesting from that data is that there are voids, under offers and, let
Suggests that there is still demand for units which is good.

[hugepants] 14/11/2019 19:03

"Not sure where you got your list of tenants Huge Pants?"

You can check for yourself kippington. Each centre with list of tenants is listed here.


They are exposed to the ones I've mentioned and several others I've not such as CVAs of Monsoon and Arcadia Group which have either announced store closures or are seeking rent reductions.

[eeza] 14/11/2019 17:09

Results due Thurs 21 Nov.

[davvero] 14/11/2019 15:28

@Specto... thanks.... very helpful.... I will suggest ADVFN to insert a calendar option where you set a date and it takes you to that date.... this should be extremely easy to do as these date/calendars are everywhere

[spectoacc] 14/11/2019 14:55

@davvero - the "Go to" button is useful to visit a particular post number, then use that to navigate around to dates.

Alternatively the Search function to find all instances of a word/set of words.

Some ADVFN BBs are virtually unreadable when there's 100's of posts a day, this one not too bad to keep up with if you click "Add Favourite" and keep visiting.

[davvero] 14/11/2019 14:49

any pf you guys could please tell me how to navigate these posts....?.... For example visit a particular day?.... If I want to visit posts of 21 January 2019 (just as an example) how do I do it?.... clicking on the PREVIOUS tab would take me a lifetime, surely there should be a quicker way...

[eeza] 13/11/2019 19:29

Barnett put on watch. Needs to get his overweight positions down.

[spectoacc] 13/11/2019 15:57

Going a bit OT but yes, had some BLND and sold out again, not trusting the election result. Longer term, BLND/LAND will be fine (surely?). My only slight query on INTU was the recent director buying (why on earth?) and the CAL partial bid. I've never owned HMSO (that I can remember!) so perhaps shouldn't judge, but with all of them, can it get bad enough to cause major debt problems.. (Yes).

More in same boat - eg RDI - and a few yet to be hit. Definitely prefer the smaller, more recent REITs - AEWL, AEWU, RGL, SHED, WHR, NRR etc, but it won't be the bottom and all are different. Industrial/last mile the other side of the coin to retail.

Retail sheds are interesting - seemingly fine, but perhaps next.