Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[ramellous] 27/9/2019 14:57

Tried chrome on iPhone. No good. Must be an apple thing

[drradcliffe] 27/9/2019 14:33

Opens fine for me using Windows/Google Chrome.

[nickrl] 27/9/2019 13:48

Opens up fine on Laptop.

Very retail centric though with naff all really on the pub business but useful background info from one of there advisers on retail parks.

[shawzie] 27/9/2019 12:21

ramellous - I have the same problem using an Apple iPad.

[zho] 27/9/2019 11:53

Hi ramellous, it worked for me.

[ramellous] 27/9/2019 11:36

I get that page but like I said I only get the cover page when I click on the pdf. Dunno if it’s me ir there is no other content.

[zho] 27/9/2019 09:01

- click on the PDF icon next to 'Capital Markets Day'

[ramellous] 27/9/2019 08:55

Can anyone see any kind of slideshow about the capital markets day yesterday on Nrr website? I can only see a cover slide.

[hugepants] 27/9/2019 07:47

They'll have to change the narrative in their results statements now. They can't really claim their "convenience" shopping centres insulate them from the retail downturn. Their plethora of bookies shops are also vulnerable.

[spectoacc] 27/9/2019 06:51

Not unexpected either - even if TCG had survived, the High St presence was going to get pared back.

[galatea99] 27/9/2019 03:39

"Other landlords hit include NewRiver, LandSec, British Land and Hammerson. They respectively have 9, 5, 5 and 4 Thomas Cook stores."

Nine stores out of the 550 that are to be closed.
Not the end of the world, then?

[marksp2011] 26/9/2019 08:25

hpcg

The long term relationship between rents and NAV is generally clear.

There are other flavours in that. A garden shed in an acre of Pimlico probably has a low rental value as a shed but the NAV as alternative use would be a tad higher than that from the gound rent on the shed.

A key part of the NRR model is to repurpose.

Short/medium term share price is also fashion/sentiment led. The Shawzie post is testament to that - some Argos stores will close. I have no idea how many Argos are in NRR portfolio. I have no idea what the terms are on those leases. I have no idea if NRR will actually benefit from getting the units back and reletting them. But, the sheer doom and gloom impacts the share price

Is this a value trap? Not for me it isn't I have a decent capital profit and 5.4p/quarter.

All depends on your perspective

[shawzie] 25/9/2019 15:41

A number of Argos stores are scheduled for closure.
More grist to the mill.
Where possible, I am all for converting properties to housing, entertainment venues, etc., to bring people together. Certain retail outlets would also benefit.
I think that NRR is on the correct track and continue to hold.

[hpcg] 25/9/2019 12:25

markssp2011 - I had a big internal yield fight before determining my sell level. Dividends and NAV are joined at the hip so the argument of "even if the property valuations fall I get my money back in 8 years" doesn't work. If NAV falls then the rent roll will also be falling. This is what the high yield is informing us of; it predicts that rents will fall and thus dividends will fall. SG&A and interest expense are fixed so rent reductions come right off the distributable income line. The positive part of this equation for NRR is that rents are already low.

I think that long term NRR will settle at about this NAV and an 8% yield and hence why I think it is a fair price.

[rcturner2] 25/9/2019 10:58

Well value traps tend to continue to fall over time, so yes it does matter.

[marksp2011] 25/9/2019 08:26

RCT

Does it matter if it is a value trap on this yield?

I can see 220 not much more as it stands. If they covered the divi it would be on 8%+ yield at current price.

i agree it isn't the screaming bargain it was 2 months ago but still value to 220 I think.

[spectoacc] 25/9/2019 07:39

@RCT2 - "crumbling" may be an exaggeration, NRR buy distressed retail, develop/shake/let cheaply. The shopping centre JV business is just getting going, and they're 1/3rd pubs, which unexpectedly has become a decent place to be.

Income is strong, but retail values have been marked down and doubtless will be again. And they either need to return to full divi cover again soon, or cut - but even a 50% cut leaves a thumping yield.

NRR IMO been unfairly lumped in with the legacy operators, when they're anything but. But I accept there's a LOT of options for buying property co's atm - NRR only one of several I've got.

[rcturner2] 25/9/2019 06:55

Spectro, this looks like a value trap to me. The asset base is crumbling and the income and dividend will drop.

Now that process may be terminal or it may present a great opportunity, but there clearly is a serious risk here.

[marksp2011] 25/9/2019 06:15

Fenners

If Debs were destination shops they wouldn't be closing. There is a Debs in my local centre - it is really short of customers. The food court is packed as is Wilkinsons etc

[spectoacc] 24/9/2019 16:46

Mid 240's a few months ago, even with the expected Woody sale - I don't believe that much has changed in the past few months. Needs divi to be covered again fairly rapidly, but where else in the market do you get this sort of yield, backed by physical assets, with (relatively..) low debt?

The NAV may be due a few more quarters of decline, but the asset management JV is set to add value over time. And the GNK bid implies the pubs have more value than the c.13% yield they were bought at.

[hpcg] 24/9/2019 16:30

220 is too high IMO. At this level the compensation for the risk is fair, especially with low interest rates. Lower than this, especially in the 160s and below and the value was generous. It's a good thing Barnett is also reducing as Invesco is potentially an enormous overhang.

[spectoacc] 24/9/2019 12:35

Well done. It's got back up here even with drip Barnett's gradual dripping. I think it's going higher, c.220p looks fairer value IMO.

[hpcg] 24/9/2019 11:49

I'm out. Selling into strength at what I think is fair value. Could go higher, but prudent for me to take profits when there is so much economic uncertainty.

[spectoacc] 24/9/2019 09:52

A pub business ;)

But yes - NRR is a third pubs, and is growing it's asset-management JV, & shouldn't be tarnished the same as the "legacy" operators like INTU & CAL IMO.