Newmark Security Share Discussion Threads

[hedgehog 100] 03/11/2023 15:17

From the "Corporate Governance" page of NWT's website: an excellent exposition of NWT's winning business model & strategy:-

"Principle 1: Establish a strategy and business model which promote long-term value for shareholders

Newmark Security is a leading provider of people and data management and physical security solutions through its subsidiaries, Grosvenor Technology Limited and Safetell Limited, in the UK, and Grosvenor Technology LLC in the USA, with exports to Europe and USA, and worldwide through our established customer base. The Company aims to help address some of the major challenges facing corporations in an environment of ever-increasing global security concerns and add value for all our stakeholders through partnership and innovation. We will continue to develop exceptional and secure products backed up by industry leading support. The Company strategy is focused on delivering growth through the development of new products, providing its customers with much-needed peace of mind whilst also improving business efficiency and flexibility through innovative technology. The three core markets served, Access Control, Human Capital Management (HCM) and physical security, are anticipated by industry analysts to grow significantly in the medium to long-term. The company takes a ‘deep and narrow’ approach in each of these markets through the provision of products and services that are highly developed and specialist, thus delivering tangible added value to its downstream partners and creating barriers to entry to potential competitors.

Grosvenor Technology’s products are at the cutting edge of access control and human capital management technology. The business is well positioned to capitalise on the crossover between these two aspects of electronic security and continued investment ensures that it stays at the forefront of this marketplace. Long term strategies are in place to increase recurring revenues through the provision of more cloud-based services on an ongoing basis, particularly in the HCM sector. This is envisaged to deliver greater shareholder value over time as both quantity and quality of earnings increase through this strategy.

Safetell is one of the industry leaders in high-demand physical security products and is perfectly placed to service the industry. The market for asset security products and services is fast growing with the ever-increasing threat of terrorism and crime placing security high on the priority list for corporate clients. It is the policy of the Company to maintain the highest standards of product quality meeting statutory and regulatory requirements by the control of its sales, purchasing, production, delivery, installation and service activities."

[hedgehog 100] 03/11/2023 12:58

Thanks to Trojan on LSE yesterday for flagging up this NWT presentation made last week:-

"Newmark Security presents at the Proactive One2One Investor Forum - October 26th

Published: 14:08 02 Nov 2023

Sergio Braga-Mullin

Marie-Claire Dwek, CEO of Newmark Security PLC (AIM:NWT), delivered a positive update on the company's 2023 annual results at the Proactive One2One Investor Forum.

The company, dedicated to providing secure cloud control for people's access, identity, and timekeeping at work, saw group revenue increase by 6%, hitting £20.3 million. The firm's two market-facing brands, Grosvenor Technology (GT) and Safetell, were key drivers of this growth.

GT, their people and data business, particularly dominant in the US, experienced a 7% top-line revenue growth, reaching £15.6 million, largely driven by their Human Capital Management (HCM) business. HCM sales surged by 10%, totaling £12.6 million.

Safetell, Newmark's physical security brand, also witnessed growth with revenue rising modestly by 3% to £4.7 million. The brand's focus areas include auto doors, screens and counters, and building security.

Dwek celebrated 2023 as a pivotal year, marked by the firm's return to full-year profitability and the successful launch of their strategic cloud platform, GT Connect.

Looking ahead, Dwek expressed confidence in achieving their 2025 growth strategy, emphasizing the firm's increasing recurring revenues and preparation for a more robust 2024."

[hedgehog 100] 01/11/2023 22:27

“All it takes is one big winner to change your life. Find it before others, know it better than others, and hold it longer than others. When diligence, skill, and luck collide. One time.”
- Ian Cassell


"CHRISTOPHER MAYER

100 BAGGERS
STOCKS THAT RETURN 100-TO-1 AND HOW TO FIND THEM

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that you could have bought and enjoyed a 100-to-one return on
—if you had just held on.

This was the main thrust of our conversation: the key is not only finding
them, but keeping them. His basic conclusion can be summed up in the
phrase “buy right and hold on.” ..."

[hedgehog 100] 01/11/2023 18:04

Grosvenor Technology's results for its year ending 30.4.23, i.e. pre-tax profit of £2.196M. on revenue of £15.574M., are certainly sizeable enough for it to be spun-out as a separate listed company: and in the USA, which accounts for over half (£8.83M., 56.7%) of GT's revenue.

And it was indicated from NWT's first AGM of this year, in February, that this GT idea might be progressed this year.

So the forthcoming NWT presentation to US investors, in America, could well be an indicator that this idea is being seriously sounded out.

NWT has previously spun-out one of its subsidiaries, in a double global first involving foreign markets.

So a Grosvenor Technology spin-out from NWT, in a US floatation, not only makes perfect sense, but would follow an established NWT modus operandi.

And a GT spin-out in America would likely be a key to an immediate and immense unlocking of its value.

GT has both the size and growth prospects to command a quite generous tech-style rating, in America, which tends to be far more generous in its ratings than UK standards.

Paycor HCM (NASDAQ: PYCR) is a major North American partner of Grosvenor Technology:-
"Paycor & Grosvenor Technology: A Powerful Pair
... “ ... The Grosvenor Technology team is an amazing partner. The collaboration and communication as we worked on the development of our software was great. ...” ..."


Paycor reported turnover of US$552.7M. last year, and has a current market cap. of c. US$3.36 billion, at c. US$19/share: i.e. a sales multiple valuation of c. 6, despite making significant losses.

This gives some indication of the hefty valuation that a Grosvenor Technology spin-out from NWT could potentially command in a US float.

Certainly a few or several US$10s of millions of valuation could be very possible.

And if GT delivers upon its growth prospects, then that could rise to hundreds of millions during this decade.

[hedgehog 100] 01/11/2023 10:42

NWT closed up 4.5p (9.5%) yesterday, closing at 52p; and has now edged up a further 0.5p so far today.

Not to be sniffed at in the current challenged markets, and it's good to be back in the 50s nice & quickly.

NWT's dips this year have been very well bought, and have tended to be very brief, which are both bullish signs.

And interestingly, all the buying yesterday took place in the afternoon, after NWT's morning AGM.


We have of course today entered NWT's H2, which is expected to be stronger than H1, i.e. the inverse of NWT's year ending 30.4.23.

So with the H1 just ended itself looking strong, NWT is looking good for a year of substantial growth in both revenues & profits.


NWT's CEO Marie-Claire Dwek will clearly have a very attractive story to tell when she presents to some US investors 'across the pond' in a few weeks.

Especially as NWT's Grosvenor Technology subsidiary, where all NWT's US revenues are achieved, reported a pre-tax profit of £2.196M. in its year ending 30.4.23:-

26/09/2023 06:00 UK Regulatory (RNS & others) Newmark Security PLC Final Results LSE:NWT Newmark Security Plc

[hedgehog 100] 31/10/2023 13:57

So NWT's positive momentum from its year ending 30.4.23 has continued though its current half year; and H2, which starts tomorrow, is expected to be even better. (This latter point could have been spun more positively than it has been.)

Amidst all the good news about contracts etc., two more detailed points are worth noting:-

• The UKG contract hit occurred in Q3 of NWT's last financial year, rather than Q4, meaning that both Q3 & Q4 were impacted by this in H2.

• HCM subscriptions are up 13% in H1, an annualised growth rate of 27.7%.
But as H2 is expected to be stronger, the full year increase should be significantly more than that.

[hedgehog 100] 30/10/2023 12:04

I would add that NWT's net debt of £0.889M. was the position nearly six months ago, i.e. 30.4.23. So by now it could potentially be considerably less, especially with GT's US relocation completed in the previous half year.

In NWT's last financial year, the value of NWT's "Property, plant and equipment" increased from £2.088M. to £2.914M., and I would expect that the US relocation accounted for a lot of this.

"GT Clocks Powers Up with Strategic Office Move

Colin Leatherbarrow
Managing Director

3 February 2023 1 min read

GT Clocks Soars to New Heights with its new Florida Headquarters: In-House Fulfillment, Total Control, and a Growing Team at the Ready

Get ready for GT Clocks’ game-changing move to its brand-new Florida headquarters! Located in Cooper City and accessible from both Fort Lauderdale and Miami airports, this state-of-the-art office boasts three times the space of its previous location. With in-house warehousing and customer order fulfilment now at the team’s fingertips, they’ll have full control over operations and delivery. And that’s not all – new team members are joining the GT team to keep up with growing customer demand and the exciting expansion of their product offerings.

Brian Hack, VP of Operations, commented:

“With demand reaching new heights, our brand-new headquarters will power us to even greater success. By taking control of our operations, we’ll have an eagle-eye view of fulfilment, guaranteeing fast delivery and the unparalleled level of service our customers know and love. This is a pivotal moment in our growth journey, and we can’t wait to see what the future holds.”

With decades of hands-on experience, our cutting-edge technology is developed and distributed from our UK headquarters and supported by our Florida office and teams worldwide. Our unparalleled expertise in the field allows us to continually revolutionize the industry with innovative hardware and software that prepares you for today and the future. Trust us to deliver responsive customer support, in multiple languages and across all time zones, as we help you manage your human capital and secure your assets on a global scale.

Unlock the full potential of your workforce and safeguard your success with GT Clocks – a global leader in human capital management (HCM) solutions and access control. Explore the full range of products and services from GT here."

[hedgehog 100] 29/10/2023 15:42

It's also well worth reading NWT's new annual report & accounts:-

"Newmark SECURITY PLC
Report & Financial Statements
YEAR ENDED 30 APRIL 2023"






This includes extra material which isn't in NWT's lengthy final results RNS of 26th. September 2023.

Including statements from the MDs of its subsidiaries Grosvenor Technology & Safetell, & from NWT's CFO:-


"Connected services with everything!

“Looking ahead, our strategy is simple, as we continue to seek
and onboard new HCM partners with exciting prospects
already well-advanced in our pipeline. We will continue to
attach services to all new business and push services to all
partners as a priority. With enhanced capability at the lower
and higher ends of the market, we will actively seek to displace
incumbents, offering competitive alternatives at both ends of
market to achieve full share-of-wallet, seeking to secure
exclusive partner status wherever possible. Our new GT
Connect platform also enables us to explore new opportunities,
such as seeking direct end-user business via partnerships with
Workday, Oracle and SAP using a new Per-Employee-PerMonth
subscription model. The future is expansive and full of
opportunity, and I am particularly proud to lead such a
talented team as we continue to execute strongly and with
disciplined focus.”

Colin Leatherbarrow, MD"


"“With a larger market opportunity and the advantage of much
stronger pipeline visibility as we enter FY24, I am confident
Safetell is now ready to take the next step in meeting
ambitious growth targets we have set ourselves for the year
ahead. Offering an even more competitive range of products,
with improved costs, lead times and services can only lead to
increased success. This will be further leveraged by our
improved sales and marketing capability, as we continue to
keep our customers at the forefront of everything we do,
building a strong brand upon which customers feel entirely
confident to rely for the long-term.”

Nick Shannon, MD"


"“I am very pleased that the steps we took in the second half of
the last financial year to increase customer prices, cut costs
and improve working capital management have resulted in a
return to profitability and net cashflow generation”

Paul Campbell-White, CFO"

[hedgehog 100] 29/10/2023 14:16

Fft,

Most small company forecasts aren't worth the paper they are printed on - with some seemingly almost just plucked out of thin air. So if you derive some sort of false reassurance from them then more fool you.

The difference with NWT is that it is experienced-honest enough to know the uncertainty, and to act accordingly.

If you want a company that plays the silly game of issuing false forecasts, then sell your NWT, and go and invest elsewhere will all the other sheep.

In many cases I specifically avoid shares with forecasts because I know full well they've no chance of being met, and that a profit warning or warnings will follow, as surely as night follows day.


As regards the UKG business loss, this has been well flagged up by NWT for years, as well as being posted about on this thread:-

09/09/2020 07:00 UK Regulatory (RNS & others) Newmark Security PLC Final Results LSE:NWT Newmark Security Plc
" ... The news of the merger between Ultimate Software and Kronos, which we expect will result in a transfer of orders away from us over time to the Kronos clock, is disappointing, however we have benefited from this relationship and will continue to work with Ultimate into the foreseeable future. ..."


10/09/2021 07:00 UK Regulatory (RNS & others) Newmark Security PLC Final Results LSE:NWT Newmark Security Plc
" ... Growth opportunities in North America
Following a three-year period of good growth, Grosvenor Technology continued to trade well across all lines of business and regions in a more challenging year. Our HCM revenues in North America, through our trading name of GT Clocks, held up well, although they were affected by the merger between Ultimate Software and Kronos, who make their own device and as a result we saw lower sales to this key customer. We have greatly benefited from our relationship with Ultimate and will continue to work with them. ..."


Also note that NWT regularly wins large contracts which it doesn't RNS at the time, and you don't seem to complain about that.


And the $22 billion merger of Kronos and Ultimate Software in 2020, to create UKG, is interesting (see my posts 67 & 68 above).

Kronos, a former 100-bagger, evolved in a similar way to the direction that Grosvenor Technology is currently moving in:-

"Products
Originally a manufacturer of time clocks, the majority of Kronos' revenue is now derived from software and services. The company provides cloud applications[20] for workforce management and human capital management, as well as consulting, education, and support services to its customers."


So for that historical reason, Kronos was a software company that unusually made its own hardware device.
Both of those things (i.e. a $22 Billion merger, and a software company making its own hardware device) are pretty unusual, so though it still resulted in lost NWT business, not any that reflected upon the quality and value of NWT's offering, or its likely demand.
On the contrary, as UKG has continued to buy NWT's for years, despite making their own.


Regarding your questions:-

• My only connection to NWT is as a retail shareholder, and I've never even spoken to or otherwise communicated with them.

• Yes, I have my thoughts on what's possible here over the next couple of years +. A good starting point is to refer to my post 167 above, on NWT's HCM ARR. And also my following post (168), on valuing NWT's SAAS.

[fft] 29/10/2023 13:09

Whilst proving estimates to brokers may be thought of providing rope to hang yourself, that is one of the main things about being a quoted company. If they don't want to be subject to public scrutiny they should go private.Since the company won't, and you seem very sympathetic to this (are you an employee ?) can you provide a revenue, EBITDA and profit range for the next year or two years ? And, while you are at it, also a cash flow/debt range ? With all your posts and research I am sure you have thoughts / calculations on the above.If not, then unfortunately, the company becomes almost uninvestable unless you like guessing. The lack of RNS from the company when news is not so good (H2 should have had a profit warning after the loss of customer -which also wasnt announced) is also a matter of concern which a brokers note could have flagged up.

[hedgehog 100] 29/10/2023 11:54

“I would rather be vaguely right than precisely wrong.” - John Maynard Keynes via Warren Buffett, Berkshire Letters 1986


Buffett means that it can often be a fallacy to claim exactitude, but that doesn't mean that you can't have a broad idea.

[hedgehog 100] 28/10/2023 17:02

Fft,

I have quite a bit of sympathy for small company directors on the issue of precisely forecasting profits in advance.

Any attempt to precisely forecast the future is inherently uncertain, because you can't be certain in advance of future events.

So to a degree, small company investors are asking the impossible on this.

Of course a lot of small companies try to meet the demand for forecasts, but a lot of them get it very wrong.

You can of course pitch the forecast very low to be cautious, but that in itself can be misleading and unhelpful, if it's dramatically underselling the company's future potential.

NWT's directors have a lot of experience as listed company directors, and will know all this, and that is I believe the reason for their reticence.

Let me give you an analogy: could you accurately forecast now what the value of your share portfolio will be in a year's time?

You may be confident that it should be a lot higher in 3 - 5 years time, but predicting yearly returns would be far more speculative.

So paradoxically, the most accurate forecast is likely to be one that encompasses a range of dates and performance, as in this vision from NWT in February of this year:-

" ... Our vision is to build a business that generates 2 - 3 times its current revenues in the next 3 - 5 years. ... we are very well positioned to achieve this vision ... "

[fft] 28/10/2023 13:50

Anyone going to the AGM on Tuesday in London ? The mello conf call was disappointing as only a rehash of the results, which had already been covered in a IMC meeting.They were very non-committal and wishy washy about providing more updates and forecasts via broker notes. Perhaps someone going could ask for an update on that. Without any estimates in the market place they can say whatever they like about having met mgmt expectations and turn off a lot of potential investors.

[hedgehog 100] 27/10/2023 18:15

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION AT 30 APRIL 2023
GBP'000
Total current assets 9,709
Total current liabilities 7,961
Total non-current liabilities 2,637
Total liabilities 10,598


= Net debt £0.889M.

EBITDA of GBP1.5m (2022: GBP0.03m loss)


Current market cap. at 47.5p: £4.453M. + £0.889M. = Enterprise value £5.342M.

= NWT EV to EBITDA multiple 3.56


Compare to the EV to EBITDA multiple of a very good value acquisition (Amcomri) expected to float by the end of this year, via RTO into the shell ROC:-

15/11/2022 15:56 UKREG Rockpool Acquisitions PLC Potential Reverse Takeover & Suspension of Listing
"... The consideration for the Acquisition if it is concluded ("the Price" ) will be GBP22,340,625 (based on the forecast pro-forma aggregate EBITDA for FY2022 of GBP5.401m, an agreed EV to EBITDA multiple of 6.84 and net debt of GBP14.6m) ...
The terms of the Acquisition value the existing issued share capital of Rockpool at GBP1m, or approximately GBP0.0786 per Ordinary Share. ..."


The good value of Amcomri reflects the good value of the ROC shell in that deal: not that much more than ROC's cash at the time of the suspension, attributing very little to the value of its listing (on the main market).


But NWT is on a EV to EBITDA multiple of barely half of Amcomri's, despite the fact that is looks to have the better growth prospects.

This further demonstrates how monstrously undervalued NWT is ... even for the season of Halloween.

[hedgehog 100] 12/10/2023 17:25

12/10/2023 10:56 RNS Non-Regulatory Newmark Security PLC Presenting at MelloMonday Investor Event LSE:NWT Newmark Security Plc

"Presenting at MelloMonday Investor Event

Newmark Security plc (AIM: NWT), is pleased to announce that the Company will be attending the MelloMonday webinar, on Monday 16 October 2023 starting at 5pm, taking place via Zoom Webinar.

Marie-Claire Dwek, CEO and Paul Campbell-White, CFO, will be presenting and taking questions from webinar participants at 6:15pm. If you would like to attend, you can register here for a free ticket for the event using code SHR100.

The recording will be sent out to all registrants within 48 hours of the event. ..."

[melloteam] 12/10/2023 13:54

Just to let shareholders and prospective investors know that Newmark Security will be presenting on the MelloMonday webinar at 5pm on Monday 16th October 2023.

The programme for the evening is as follows:
5.00 pm Fireside chat with Paul Hill
5.45 pm Company presentation by Velocity Composites
6.15 pm Company update by Newmark Security
6.55 pm Educational presentation
7.10 pm Company introductory presentation by One Health Group
7.50 pm BASH panel with Mark Simpson, Richard Crow and Kevin Taylor

There will be over 500 investors attending and these are very popular shows with company presentations, fund manager and investor interviews, and panel sessions.

Tickets are still available and if you would like one at half price then enter the code MMTADVFN50.

[davidosh] 11/10/2023 20:56

Newmark are on the next MelloMonday show

[hedgehog 100] 09/10/2023 09:00

Just added to NWT's website, an article that closely reflects a 9th. August Safetell article:-

"Insights
The convergence of physical and digital security: Trends and insights for business safety"


"Integrating Physical with Digital Security: A Comprehensive Approach to Business Safety
09 August, 2023"



A bit like a 'Mirror Man':


And I 'Keep Feeling Fascination':

[hedgehog 100] 06/10/2023 13:36

Safetell's website has just put a further four new articles on automatic doors at the top of its "Insights" section:-

"Insights
Keep up to date on our product news, business announcements and industry-related content on how to effectively and efficiently secure and maintain your organisation."



Here are some extracts from a couple of the articles:-


"Automatic Door Repairs

05 October, 2023

Automatic doors are an essential part of modern-day infrastructure. They are a convenient addition to a wide range of different buildings, widening accessibility while aiding security and energy efficiency.

Automatic doors have to work hard, particularly in places with a high footfall. Over time, moving parts and other components can be subject to wear and tear. Add to that weather conditions, accidents and impact, all of which can eventually lead to breakdowns and the need for repairs.

Automatic door repairs and maintenance ensure that your automatic doors keep working efficiently for longer, extending their service life and minimising the risk of unscheduled downtime. ...

Do you need automatic door repairs?

Regularly serviced and maintained automatic doors will continue to work efficiently for many years. Key to a long service life is ensuring that any potential problems are identified early.

There are several signs that can indicate you need to consider automatic door repairs. These include:

• Slow or Delayed Opening/Closing ...

• Partial Opening/Closing ...

• Intermittent Operation ...

• Misalignment ...

• Visible Damage ...

• Obstruction Detection Issues ...

• Leaking Air/Water ...

• Electrical Problems ...

• Noisy Operation ...

Automatic Door Repairs & Maintenance from Safetell

Even with regular preventative maintenance automatic door repairs are sometimes still required to keep doors working safely and efficiently.

At Safetell, our team of professional engineers can carry out timely automatic door repairs to keep them operational. We help to minimise door downtime and the added inconvenience of faulty, unreliable automatic doors.

Regular maintenance can help to minimise the risk of automatic door failure and give you confidence that your doors are safe and working efficiently.

We offer two maintenance and repair packages for our clients. Progressive Service is non- contracted, purchase order-based option, which allows clients to benefit from Safetell’s service and maintenance offering without fully committing to a contract.

Proactive Service is a contracted alternative, which offers returning clients the peace of mind of enhanced response times, discounts on parts, and reduced rates on call-out and repair fees.

Contact us to find out more.

Emergency Automatic Door Repairs

An automatic door which malfunctions can pose an immediate safety hazard and be inconvenient for building users. Safetell provides rapid response emergency automatic door repairs to get your doors in full working order again as quickly as possible.

Commercial Automatic Door Repairs

Commercial buildings depend on the safe, reliable and efficient operation of their automatic doors. If your doors break down or have problems with their operation, it can be inconvenient and costly. Our team of engineers can be on-site quickly to ensure that your doors are operating safely and efficiently. With our ‘repair not replace’ ethos we won’t charge you for new parts when existing components can be repaired.

FAQS

Can I use Safetell to repair my automatic door if I am contracted with another company?

Yes. Safetell is happy to provide automatic door repairs for clients who are contracted with other companies. It’s important to check with your current provider to see if using an alternative service invalidates or compromises your current agreement. ..."




"Automatic door repairs London

05 October, 2023

... Automatic door maintenance in London

London is a city that is constantly moving, meaning that businesses, commercial spaces and public facilities need to ensure convenient access. One of the means through which this is achieved is by automatic doors. These enable speedy and convenient access and exit from a building with the minimum of fuss.

Ensuring that automatic doors operate effectively and safely as and when needed, even in the busiest environments, requires regular maintenance. This plays a vital role in preventing unexpected breakdowns and extending the lifespan of automatic doors.

Routine automatic door maintenance will typically include inspection, lubrication, adjustment, and testing of door components to identify and then address any potential problems. This ensures that any developing issues are spotted early on and then addressed. Automatic door service London technicians will also conduct comprehensive safety checks to ensure that doors comply with the relevant industry standards and regulations.

Our automatic door London repair service

At Safetell, we understand the importance of well-functioning automatic doors in both commercial and residential settings in London. Our team of highly skilled technicians have years of experience and offers comprehensive automatic door repair services to businesses and property owners.

We work swiftly to diagnose and rectify any issues, reducing downtime and quickly restoring access.

Remember that regular maintenance helps to maintain the optimal performance of your doors for longer. Regular maintenance and servicing should be a part of your overall building maintenance strategy. This not only ensures that a vital part of your building systems is working effectively, but it also reduces costs over time. ..."