Ncondezi Energy Share Discussion Threads

[shash2] 01/2/2016 06:36

I've bought some shares so I obviously want it to go up but just trying to get the facts that's all

[cammy3] 01/2/2016 06:35

De rampers arriving is always s good sign

[shash2] 01/2/2016 04:57

Katylied thanks for your post it's nice to see 2 sides to the story as apposed to the typical ramping of the stock

[katylied] 01/2/2016 00:46

novicetrader - Surely the value of the IPP is calculated in terms of the IRR (EDM deal - costs) over the life of the plant. The coal supply was always going to be a cost for the IPP. The higher the IRR (lower the costs), the greater the project value. $60m at this early stage, is still probably an absolute bargain and a chunk of that is just reimbursing NCCL for work already done. I'll admit all things considered, I am surprised SEP were prepared to pay that much, but not because the IPP project isn't worth it...

Then again, SEP haven't actually paid a penny yet.
Still much too early to uncross your fingers...

[jamie414] 31/1/2016 23:53

I read somewhere on the internet that Elvis is still alive.....

[novicetrade68] 31/1/2016 23:47

Still, the question would be, what is this $60m for if the Ncondezi mine isn't involved ? As I mentioned before, if SEP wants to invest in Mozambique farmland for that amount, would you not think they're overpaying a little bit ?

[katylied] 31/1/2016 23:08

Good point. I was posting from memory. I believe I read 80% and 20% as the minority coal stake from somewhere at the time. Possibly Proactive investors, possibly elsewhere. Doesn't really matter, SEP were supposed to take a 'minority' stake in the Coal-Mine. So far, they have not...

I will edit the previous post to say only 'majority' and 'minority'. OK?

[novicetrade68] 31/1/2016 23:06

Katie, the MOU 'from winter 2014' never stated any percentages you're now coming up with. It was only proposed SEP would take a majority stake in the power project and a minority stake in the mine. Where do you get those numbers from ?

[katylied] 31/1/2016 22:59

Cammy the short of it is this ... The original MOU (from winter 2014) required SEP to take a majority of the IPP and a minority position in the 'captive' coal mine. The IPP and the Coal-mine were always going to be separate businesses. The purpose of the minority stake was to bind SEP's interests with those of NCCL's in the Coal-Mine. As you are aware, thus far things haven't quite worked out that way. NCCL's minority interest in the IPP project may provide them some leverage, but it is fair to say, that the IPP/Coal-Mine situation really isn't all that clear at present, should a much cheaper source of coal become available. That earlier Zitamar link also included this link, note the last paragraph...



NCCL long termers will be well aware of this situation, while newer pumper-dumpers are probably less so. It was reported some time back (when RIO ran Benga), that it cost RIO ~$12/t to re-bury surplus low grade (power station) coal. Evidently, ICVL now have loads of the stuff. The implicit proposition in the Zitamar article, is that if someone were to approach ICVL and offer to take that waste coal off their hands (thereby saving ICVL ~$12/t), they just might get their arm bitten off.

Note however, that following the Chinese Gov's crack down on corruption, the former General Manager of SEP Feng Jun, has now been charged with taking bribes worth over 43.47 million yuan alone or with partners and being unable to account for property worth 76 million yuan. So SEP's current BoD may well now think twice before getting involved with any brown envelopes coming their way from ICVL. Then again, this is Africa.

Either way, this NCCL deal needs to be nailed down ASAP and that is something the NCCL BoD have never been very good at. The Feb 8th deadline will no doubt be missed and that marks the Chinese New Year. That is basically the start a major holiday period for the Chinese. I am only surprised the Zitamar article, didn't also wonder about the current NCCL funding position...

[shash2] 31/1/2016 22:33

Cammy3 what's your prediction for end if 2016 and going toward ?

[cammy3] 31/1/2016 22:07

Only 250m shares in issue Jamie. AllWe need is an unconditional deal and we can sit back and enjoy for next 3 years.

[jamie414] 31/1/2016 22:06

Hopefully you are correct.

[cammy3] 31/1/2016 22:03

We will see

[jamie414] 31/1/2016 22:02

Cammy3 you do ramp it a bit.... :-D 50p anytime soon is ramping! IMO of course.
10p will do me :)

[cammy3] 31/1/2016 21:58

Just using common sense and following the past RNS. Why would INeed to ramp it? Goodness

[shash2] 31/1/2016 21:56

Hi Cammy3 hope you aware not just ramping this share up...

[cammy3] 31/1/2016 21:47

All will be revealed this week I'm sure

[novicetrade68] 31/1/2016 21:45

I think they are sensible questions to ask based on the content of that article Katie ? Like many other posters on here I too wonder whether this article wasn't just a little bit disingenuous. But if 60% of Ncondezi's farmland is worth up to $60m then who I am to argue with that.

[katylied] 31/1/2016 21:28

Do you actually want an answer, or is that just rhetoric?

[novicetrade68] 31/1/2016 21:03

That's the bit I didn't get either, why would SEP invest up to $60m for a 60% stake in a power project and then source the coal from elsewhere ? What is that $60m for then ? For a bit of land in remote Mozambique and drawing up some paperwork for the JV ? Now that would be the deal of the century !

[jamie414] 31/1/2016 16:11

Hanno Pengilly of Ncondezi Energy told Zitamar News the company is “reviewing the status of the ESIA (environmental and social impact assessment) with respect to the technology change, but we suspect it shouldn’t be a major issue because PC technology is a cleaner technology” than CFB.

Will do for me.

And I very much doubt that we would strike up such a deal like this for the Chinese to source the coal from somewhere else. What would be the point in that.
Load of Tosh...
Tick tock.....
It's going to go off this isn't it :-D very soon.

[cammy3] 31/1/2016 15:05

This article just sets out the differences between NCCL and other coal producers in the area.

[cammy3] 31/1/2016 15:03

In other coal news, Ncondezi Energy's pit-to-power project in Moatize district has received a boost by signing up Shanghai Electric to take a 60% stake and to take over development of the project. The Chinese have a strong track record of project execution in Mozambique so far, and their enthusiasm for Ncondezi – in the context of China's global 'One Belt, One Road' strategy, as Zitamar highlighted last year – could herald a new push to get the CESUL transmission project, to take power from Tete to southern Mozambique, off the ground.