National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[pierre oreilly] 29/5/2024 18:39

Lippy 9304Yes, trying to shoehorn too much intermittent energy onto the grid is pretty much an incredibly expensive nonsense. Windmills don't meet the obvious primary requirement of a power matching grid that it is instructable. (I.e. grid engineers can't order windmills to generate what is needed at that time - they generate intermittently, sometimes when no further generation is needed, and sometimes generate nothing when there's a severe shortage at demand peaks. It's a bit like owning a car which sets off North at 200mph when you want to go South at 30mph. Or doesn't start at all when you want to go to work. Or goes 80mph when you don't want to go anywhere.You could own a car like that if you had another very reliable car following for those times you find yourself going in the wrong direction or speed.And that's more or less the same for our grid. Behind the unreliable intermittent windmill dominated grid, the old reliable one is there to come to the rescue when windmills don't deliver - hence you hear of old coal stations generating at winter peaks.The current Ng. Investment in infrastructure is basically all necessary due to the high level of intermittent penetration. The obsession with wind is perverse. It's a really poor, financially disastrous, generation technology. Why we are inflicting this on ourselves is very perverse.

[viscount1] 29/5/2024 18:26

Nuclear cannot be used as rapid response for "sporadic" supply as indicated by the OP. Yes, it can be turned up and down very slowly (and carefully) but generally the UK stations are taken to near max and kept there. Rapid response comes from CCGT, interconnectors and hydro/pumped, with diesel backups.

[pierre oreilly] 29/5/2024 17:58

Of course nukes can be instructed up and down, it's just that their ramp rates are slow. They can also supply a primary reserve service (like most big steam plant) where they can supply power automatically in response to frequency drops within a few seconds for a few minutes.

[utyinv] 29/5/2024 17:19

As I said before makes you wonder if the big boys had insight of the RI before being announced to the greater market on 23rd?

There was a lot of selling week ending fri 17th May ( closing price £11.38)

Hypothetically, if an institution had 1,000,000 shares and sold that would realise £11,380,000 take or pocket 1,000,000 x .3912p = £391,200 for lost divi leaves £10,988,800

Buy at todays price of £8.38 ( x 0.005% tax ) :- £8.4219 this trade would realise £10,988,800 / £8.4219 = 1,304,788 shares.

Still banking the dividend now rather than waiting for August and increasing your existing holding by 304,788 shares.

This example only gives you an idea of the benefits of finding out leaked news.

[viscount1] 29/5/2024 17:18

Nuclear cannot be turned up. Nuclear is base load and is slow to respond.

[lippy4] 29/5/2024 17:01

can the present grid operate with wind power being so sporadic as its not like nuclear which can be turned up when required.

thats probably why you need so much to allow for its inconsistency which is going backwards in my opinion..

[pander45] 29/5/2024 16:57

Nope, just a decent opportunity in my view. When I'm horrified, I buy, and the more horrified I am the more I buy.

[gilesy911] 29/5/2024 16:49

Thank you for that Davius

[talldarkslim] 29/5/2024 16:40

This is now oversold and UBS agrees

[gilesy911] 29/5/2024 16:05

What happens to the NGPN shares after 5 June

[goonerbob] 29/5/2024 15:39

Pseudosphere

My price target for NG. post ex div(6/6/24) is 680-720p

[willoicc] 29/5/2024 15:36

Companies are complaining about delays to connect their new projects to the grid. I guess this is to address those complaints.

Eg:

theenergyst.com/mps-to-hear-solar-developers-complaints-over-farcical-hook-up-waits/

[cynicalsteve] 29/5/2024 15:32

From the timing of the share price fall I think that American investors have woken up to the fact that they own shares (or ADRs) in a regulated utility in a country that is about to have a Socialist government. That would scare them even more than it scares us!

[trader2] 29/5/2024 15:31

200 Giga watts is quite a lot! UK base load is presently around 40 Giga watts.

[pseudosphere] 29/5/2024 15:22

The nil paid rights have now plunged so much that you can currently buy at under 800p, for a new share not entitled to a dividend. This includes the 0.5% SDRT.

[davius] 29/5/2024 15:17

Kibes

"But I don't like their plan, how is the electricity going to be generated to fill all the new infrastructure they are paying to install? They are jumping the gun and won't get a rapid return on their investment."

You should really be researching if there are companies you are considering investing in. Last summer the press was reporting at least 1000 green energy projects that were unable to connect to the grid due to lack of infrastructure. Most of these are still waiting.

Just do a search on something like "green energy schemes waiting to connect to the grid". National Grid will be getting a rapid return, as soon as they can spend the money to provide connections.

One quote from last year:

The UK has the longest queue to connect to the electricity grid of any country in Europe. There are about 200 gigawatts worth of electricity projects waiting for a grid connection, according to research by Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

[1carus] 29/5/2024 15:03

Anything sub 8.47 (8.10 ex divi)here has got to be worth considering as an entry.
I bailed on these earlier in the year and bought in to lloyds at around 44p, although recovering, I expect the banks to be an easy target for Starmer so looking at moving back in to NG. Slipping below 8.40 and heading towards 800 xd values. You can't always time the bottom but it gets to the point where you have to take Buffets's advice if it is a fair price for a good company.

[kibes] 29/5/2024 15:01

When TUI did a rights issue their share price was 1300p, the rights were issued at round about 480p and the share price went below even that, eventually bottoming at around 400p. Let's hope it won't be the same for NG, but I suppose institutions and traders will have sold out the minute the rights issue was announced, fully expecting to buy back much cheaper when the dust has settled. Personally I may have a punt on this if it gets to 645p. But I don't like their plan, how is the electricity going to be generated to fill all the new infrastructure they are paying to install? They are jumping the gun and won't get a rapid return on their investment.

[phillis] 29/5/2024 14:48

It is UNERWRITTEN!
And the underwriters are well remunerated

[cynicalsteve] 29/5/2024 14:37

Too soon to start a serious discussion about a failed rights issue BUT the share price keeps drifting down and at 848p (oh dear 843p now!) with the 39p dividend to come off the underwriters will be starting to sweat! It would need an outside event to trigger it and in todays world that is possible, I'd say only a 5% chance at the moment, more likely that the price will go up from here but...

[dexdringle] 29/5/2024 14:24

There is something very odd going on here.

[1carus] 29/5/2024 14:22

This is staring to look a little oversold, if it drops another 5p we are at 800p ex divi. Even if it recovers a little in the run up to XD I still think the drop is going to take it below £8. Tanking as I type!!

[utyinv] 29/5/2024 13:27

Stoopid post 9281:
It's possible that this rights issue is because NG couldn't raise the full funds it required for the investment plans 2024 - 2029 due to its already large £44bln or so debt mountain.

NG could easily raise the amount by increasing debt but the regulator wouldn’t allow it. This is not a normal private company that say makes cars. This is a Utility that is regulated and the Director Gen of Ofgem has said if shareholders are willing to put up some funds then that shows support for the Company and we will ensure that any debt can be recovered through bills from customers.

Without shareholder involvement Ofgem have a view that you are asking customers to pay for your total upgrade and then charge them royally for the privilege.

That is why OFGEM have already agreed that the standing charge can rise, will say to the media and customers that it is a necessary action if NG are expected to transport new sources of clean energy to where the demand is.

Whether you agree or disagree with NZ as Pierre has eloquently put it, customers will be royally squeezed by continuously rising bills to pay for NZ.