National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[utyinv] 28/5/2024 15:17

I don’t offer advice, but many would say to those that have taken the plunge to buy the rights, those that have sold their rights and stuck with their existing holding or a mixture of the two, is after 12th June forget about the shares and enjoy the dividend and hopefully witness an increase in the capital invested over time.

[utyinv] 28/5/2024 15:09

Also knowing JP of old, his philosophy is for every £1 used to build he wanted £1.5 of value returned, that’s why Andy (Agg) was confident that the NG would be a £100 billion Company after the five year build ( which includes the UK and USA business’s)

If that confidence comes to fruition and a reality, the share price should be £20.80p

[pseudosphere] 28/5/2024 15:08

Philanderer, I'm also with ii and if anyone wants to buy any additional nil paid rights, as I did, they insist that you register online as a 'sophisticated investor'.
This only requires the ticking of a few boxes, stating that you understand the risks etc. and there is then a short delay before they allow you to trade these instruments (I made several attempts before the system allowed me to buy).

At the moment NG. is 884p and NGPN is 198.1p

[utyinv] 28/5/2024 15:02

Goonerbob

In the Companies you mentioned they were in dire straights. Two things occur that will affect the share price,
1) ex dividend when the price will fall by the divi of 39.12p+ ( they nearly always fall more than the divi) and
2) the rights all settle into normal shares as a collective on 12th June.

If ignoring the ex-divi drop, one has to evaluate a like for like situation where the market cap on May 20th was approx £41.77 billion (£11.29 and 3.7 billion shares in circ) and a new total shares in circ of 4.8 billion. Fundamentally, ignoring the ex divi fall in share price but adding the £7 billion raised from existing shareholders the market cap should raise the market cap to £48.77 billion, divide that by 4.8 billion shares in circ gives an equivalent price of £10.16 / shares.

Obviously, by then the shares would have gone ex div and fallen but you cannot alway account for market sentiment. Upshot is, I would be very surprised if it does fall as low as you predict in post 9234

[scoobydoo99] 28/5/2024 14:58

Thanks philanderer, so the rights issue shares will cost £6.45 + the £2.00 (or whatever the NGNP shares are valued at on conversion)?

[philanderer] 28/5/2024 14:44

scooby, if you take up your rights those NGNP shares will be converted into fully paid shares and added to your existing holding around june 12th or shortly after. I've filled in the corporate action in my ii account and will be taking up all mine.

[goonerbob] 28/5/2024 14:37

I suspect the NG. share price will follow previous Rights issue eg. Rolls Royce(RR.) or more recently Synthomer(SYNT)and drift closer to the rights price of 645p or even go below as in both RR. and SYNT cases.

[scoobydoo99] 28/5/2024 14:24

Never had a stock that's had a rights issue before.
In my II account I can see that I now have some NGNP shares, I also have a corporate action to take up the rights issue that I need to respond to before 5th June. If I take up the rights issue what happens to the NGNP shares sat in my account just now? Thanks

[goonerbob] 28/5/2024 14:22

The TERP calculation I used to arrive at £10.19 was as follows:

24 existing shares pre rights closing price of 11.275 = 270.60
7 new shares @ 6.45 = £45.15
total £315.75 / 31 shares = £10.1855

[utyinv] 28/5/2024 14:16

This article concurs with what Bounty has said ( post 9223), regarding buying a position in NG, if not already in:-

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 28/5/2024 14:00

#Pseudosphere, neat idea which I was looking at too, but not available on SI, we will have to wait for post XD for the best price and see if it beats 845 pence.. :o)

[bountyhunter] 28/5/2024 13:49

Apart from this year when if you subtract money paid for rights (to maintain the dividend) from the dividend received you won't get 10% or anything close.

[davius] 28/5/2024 13:47

Last bit of the article posted by philanderer...

"Bottom line? Income-oriented investors react emotionally to dividend cuts. Let’s put it this way. A decently run utility with a 10% total return potential should not be sold."

[davius] 28/5/2024 13:45

Gooner, I think the difference is because the nil paid are not liable for the dividend and can only be sold once the shares are ex-div. All things being equal, knock another 39.12p off that price for the dividend. The difference then is under 2p...

[bountyhunter] 28/5/2024 13:33

Maybe also consider the 7 for 12 new shares hitting the market on 12 June? Also the GE to consider on 4 July - factored in?

gooner - the shares dropped to 1126-122 = 1004p on Thursday before going ex-rights on Friday so your figure XR seems too high.

[pseudosphere] 28/5/2024 13:30

I bought some additional nil paid rights this morning. The NGPN price range, thus far today, was 195.8 - 215.4 and closely tracks NG. as expected.

You have to pay SDRT at 0.5%, plus the usual trading fee but it appears to be a reasonable speculation at the current price of approximately 200p.

Current NG. price is 886p, at the time of writing; so allowing for a further drop of 39.12p,when it goes ex-div on the 6th of June, may make it worthwhile, for those prepared to take a punt that all the bad news has already been priced in?

[goonerbob] 28/5/2024 13:18

Can anyone confirm the TERP(theoretical ex rights price). I've calculated it to be £10.19
Also the current NGPN nil paid shares are trading @ 200p which added to the RI price of 645p gives a total of 845p. The NG. Shares are trading @ 886p a difference of 41p!!
Is there a reason for misprice here?

[bountyhunter] 28/5/2024 12:55

1carus28 May '24 - 10:29 - 9216 of 9221
0 0 0
I want to get back in here.. but still probably going to wait until after the xd date to give it time to find some ditection.

Maybe even until after 12 June when the new 7 for 12 shares hit the market?

[bountyhunter] 28/5/2024 12:51

Eloquently put and exactly what myself and some others have been saying since the start 😉

[feddie] 28/5/2024 11:45

The dividend per share will be rebased from 58.52p to 45.3p (FY24 Results, slide 41).

This means that a long term shareholder will need to exercise the full rights just to keep the same total level of dividends: 45.3 * (1 + 7/24) = 58.5

Nice way to screw long term shareholders.

[goldgeezer] 28/5/2024 11:28

These targets are utterly pointless and only correct randomly

[philanderer] 28/5/2024 11:10

Royal Bank of Canada cuts National Grid price target to 1,125 (1,250) pence - 'outperform'

[dexdringle] 28/5/2024 10:44

《《298; COLSMITH28 May '24 - 10:04 - 9215 of 9217
....the big unknown is the political gremlin putting us all in the last chance salon 》》299;

Is that where condemned people get their final haircut ? 🤣

[viscount1] 28/5/2024 10:34

Technically, I doubt the share price will recover much until a little after the xd.

People selling off their NGPNs will keep the pressure on the NG share price, and new money that might go in is being used to take up the rights.

[1carus] 28/5/2024 10:29

I want to get back in here.. but still probably going to wait until after the xd date to give it time to find some ditection.