National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[bountyhunter] 26/5/2024 14:56

The current price is the market's reaction to the rebased dividend together with future prospects for the new investments going forwards as well as political risk associated with the election being called, and the likely outcome (imv). It's yet to be seen if the current price is too low, Monday trading in New York may give some indication on that.
Given that the "total" dividend is to be kept the same the huge investment funded by the rights issue seems like dead money at least for many years to come. NG have effectively taken a massive interest free loan from shareholders with no obligation to pay it back, just on a wing and a prayer.

[berny3] 26/5/2024 14:50

Vis it is 24/7 not 24/5

The final dividend is based on the shares in issue at the announcement date. 9th November 2023

24 * 8.89 = £213.36
7 * 6.45 = £ 45.15

31 = £258.51 = £8.339

8.339 - 6.45 = £1.89 premium

There is a miss price as money flow was wrong footed with news in the week.

Price should be imo about £9.5

24 * 9.5 = £228
7 * 6.45 = £45.15

31 = £273.15 or £8.81 - 6.45 = £2.36 premium

Current price is too low imo

[bountyhunter] 26/5/2024 14:39

Post 9093 yesterday including my comments..

A 238p/share drop in two days in exchange for 200p (NGPN close on Friday) * 7/24 = 58p/share if you were to sell the NGPNs now. A 180p/share real loss in just two days, I make that a 180/1128 *100 = 16% loss over the two days in real terms based on the current share price and NGPN price, assuming you sell the NGPN rights at their current price. All with the icing on the cake of the rebased dividend.
I took the hit on Thursday selling out at an average price of ~£10.25, glad I did although still totally p*ssed off with this fiasco.

[bountyhunter] 26/5/2024 14:37

I'll repost my calculations below, just need to dig them out first!

[viscount1] 26/5/2024 14:36

The point is if you are going to do any share calcs to merge or sum the old and new shares then you need to take into account the foregone dividend. (To the extent that such calcs are useful.)


More importantly you need it to price the NGPN, e.g. for 24/5:

1 NGPN =~ 889 - 645 - 39
= 205

[bountyhunter] 26/5/2024 14:34

That's what I was thinking, the dilution will result in a ~7/24 i.e. a 29% decline in the dividend per share.

When they say "maintaining the total level of dividend following the Rights Issue" the key word is "total".

[berny3] 26/5/2024 14:29

Vis you are buying shares at £6.45 a significant discount to market price, that more than equates to the loss of one dividend.

BH - exactly very difficult to take in in such a short space of time, hence my thoughts the price is currently too low. And yes the new annual dividend will be the same as this year but adjusted for the increase in shares issued through the rights. i.e. there will be no change in total cash available for dividend just an increase in the number of shares it is dividend amongst and hence individual dividend per share will reduce by the adjusted number of shares.

[bountyhunter] 26/5/2024 14:22

>>maintaining the total level of dividend following the Rights Issue

Are you sure that equates to maintaining the dividend per share as there will be significantly more shares? It's difficult to take in everything that has happened with this company in such a short space of time. As it stands at the moment we have seen a 16% destruction of value since the close on Wednesday based on the current share price and current price of the nil paid rights (calculations are in an earlier post).

[viscount1] 26/5/2024 14:18

Re: share calcs

The new shares will not receive a final dividend which makes them worth 39p less.

[berny3] 26/5/2024 14:15

BH - no change in dividend if you take up rights issue.

continuing our progressive dividend policy, maintaining the total level of dividend following the Rights Issue. Aim to continue to grow the DPS in line with UK CPIH, from a rebased FY24 DPS level

[bountyhunter] 26/5/2024 14:10

What about the effect of the rebased dividend, that would have caused a drop on it's own so could have contributed to the fall on the Thursday before XR on the Friday.

[berny3] 26/5/2024 14:02

May 22nd Close £11.26
May 23rd announcement of rights issue
May 24th ex date
May 25th Close £8.89

May 23rd Close £10.01

24 * 11.26 = £270.24
7 * 6.45 = £45.15

31 £10.17 = £315.39

May 24th ex date Close £8.978

24 * 10.01 = £240.24
7 * 6.45 = £45.15

31 £9.21 = £285.39


I think the current price is out of sync with true value. It looks like the price went through two ex dates. The election announcement was not a surprise for forward earnings as it would have been expected at some point this year. The announcement would have wrong footed a lot of trading bots and I think there is a positive correction to come here to put the price back to between £9.5 and £10.0.

Looking at the information, margins look to be inflation hedged. (higher costs equates to higher revenues) looking forward it is predicting a 6 - 8 % compound annual growth rate. That is good in my mind.


Trading - there would of been arbitrage happening between the rights price and the stock price. As people rushed to sell their rights for whatever reason that would of had a disproportionate negative impact on the stock price.

I have taken up all my rights and topped up with stock after ex rights as I believe it is mispriced at this level.

[pander45] 26/5/2024 13:56

Nope, opposite.

[pierre oreilly] 26/5/2024 12:11

Give it a couple of weeks before calls are made for all the new cables to go underground instead of sticking 6000 pylons all over the uk. That'll be another few billion extra to raise, not in their plans. And I'm sure they'll face no planning problems, or wayleave problems at all.

I'm asking myself if the uk is investable at all, if one of the safest minimum risk companies on the se can be destroyed (probably literally in 4/5/6/7 years) by the government. If you were a Saudi prince with a hundred bill to invest, would you buy uk companies after this?

[pander45] 26/5/2024 11:28

Agree totally. For long term holders it's a no brainer.

[bountyhunter] 26/5/2024 10:02

They all seem to say that Freeport is the largest and most BHP second. Others have had corporate actions and recent production increases which confuses the picture. Comparing 2023 copper production figures seems reasonable.

[action] 26/5/2024 09:59

Another report says Freeborn, BHP and GLEN as sixth.

[bountyhunter] 26/5/2024 09:57

That depends on which result you choose and how up to date what you look at is.

Try this one, updated 2024..

[action] 26/5/2024 09:56

Just done Google search and RIO, BHP, GLEN comes out as top 10 producing co.

[bountyhunter] 26/5/2024 09:54

I'm not sure of the status of BHP nowadays, I vaguely recollect there was a major corporate event there a few years ago. I've traded RIO, and learnt that you need to be with the trend especially with the miners due to the significant cyclical nature of those shares.

[action] 26/5/2024 09:52

I still got skin GLEN and trade regularly as stamp duty exempt status makes it easier. Used to trade BHP but some how lost touch with it.

[bountyhunter] 26/5/2024 09:32

Is that from a 2024 listing as there has been some consolidation in the sector? The list above was updated 2024. I see that Codelco is state owned so ignoring that one Glencore goes up to #5 based on 2023 production figures.

[action] 26/5/2024 08:58

Recon GLEN is 3rd largest producer of copper.