National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[utyinv] 12/10/2022 15:06

Bounty it shouldn’t and IMO its about time.

This is because the strike price for all renewables, what they get paid to generate is still linked to a legacy of the the GOAL (Generator Ordering and Loading)and despite how cheap a wind generator is the strike price is set to the most expensive generator called onto the system where the supply meets demand. So in essence if say, hypothetically, a Wind Generator costs £x pounds / mwh and an expensive Gas powered plant is generating at £y / mwh, where y could be many more times the multiple of the cheap Generated renewable, the Wind Generator will receive £y not £x.

This unfortunately was in part due to Boris pushing the renewable agenda to make it lucrative for renewable generators to invest more onto the system. This was literally a perverse and idiotic decision and now we are all paying for it.

National Grid is not a Generator and they cannot be be, in the UK because it would contravene the Licence Agreement put in the conditions during privatisation. This is why the Pumped Storage Generators, ie, Dinorwic and Ffestiniog were sold soon after privatisation.

In the US we have just sold our power plant too.

Just to add, also, Joe public do not understand or appreciate that National Grid are not liable or responsible for a lack of Generated Energy or Energy Shortage due to a lack of availability. So the fact that we may not have enough prospective generation to cope with the winter whilst the war is creating devastation in Europe, National Grid have it written in law that they are not culpable if there is insufficient Generation.

[bountyhunter] 12/10/2022 12:55

I presume this won't affect NG at all but I haven't read the small print!

At least our earnings from the US will certainly be immune.

[coxsmn] 12/10/2022 12:28

6% yield is quite juicy

[lovewinshatelosses] 12/10/2022 12:00

It will be interesting to see if NG is one of the stocks that is being distressed sold right now. IMO, it is starting to get appealing again now. Am watching very closely.

[gbh2] 12/10/2022 08:17

Safety stock?

More like a basket case!

[lennonsalive] 11/10/2022 11:08

I raised the issue of debt years ago when I was a shareholder and also worked for Ng. I was told it was cheap debt and nothing to worry about, as it let them invest in other projects

[colsmith] 11/10/2022 10:13

ut, the only sensible comment in the whole charade of Tory leadership selection was Badenoch when she said for every decision there are consequences. Our leaders need to think on that - whether one believes in the Ukraine activity or not the leadership of the UK should operating for the UK people - that means stimulate peace in Ukraine, then energy costs would go down and wheat (now at risk) would not be. NG stock price wouldn't be in the bin as inflation would not be the problem it is. So our leaders have made this problem and are printing money to keep us serfs at least not on the streets.

[utyinv] 11/10/2022 09:29

I am struggling to understand the complacency of the BoDs regarding the consistent fall in the share price.

The pre close, interim period, statement yesterday, gave very little in the way of optimism for investors to cheer about.

Yes global stocks are falling but here is a Utility, that is a defensive play, ie it held up well during the pandemic period, Labour have ruled out Nationalisation, preferring to invest in a new National Energy Company, that will work alongside the private sector and use National Grid services, so what is there not to like?

Maybe the fall is an over reaction and Shysters trying to make a quick buck. Qwasi’s uncosted budget was a disaster. What was he thinking about? Meeting Hedge fund sharks to brief them before the budget, photographed drinking champagne with them is reminiscent of scenes from the Big Short film. Was he simply naive or simply festering his own nest before throwing the current Government under a bus?

The leadership campaign was too long, protracted and devoid of any leadership / Government when the ship was sailing through a storm. Boris choosing to have three holidays whilst still Prime Minister in status only. Typical of Boris. The position of holding office without making decisions suited his personality … all the kudos of high office but devoid of any action.

How long before this financial storm ends?

[lennonsalive] 10/10/2022 09:17

Heading towards that £8 point

[gilesy911] 07/10/2022 14:09

Dropping towards the US open again !!!

[lovewinshatelosses] 07/10/2022 13:51

No point comparing NG to Tesla - but a good example of how irrational the markets are! How many people lost their shirt shorting the latter a couple of years ago, when it was an 'obvious' short...but the share price kept on rising to ever loftier levels?
I should have added in my last post that the BOD here are like so many in large listed corporates - complacent and haughty (IMO of course) - but as long as the major shareholders are satisfied with the set up, then that is that. I guess if enough small PI's attended AGMs and lobbied hard for a change as you are suggesting, over a sustained period of time, then perhaps it would change. How many are actually willing to do so? Very few, I would imagine and so we are back to where we started. IMO most PI's who invest in stocks like NG do so on the advice of IFA's or their pension fund managers; traditional passive investors, who probably pay little attention to anything of note, apart from whether their dividends are getting paid and maybe if the share price tanked or rose considerably. Even then, most simply do nothing. Over the past 40 years, this has been a very good strategy in fairness. As for the next 40 years? Well...lets see how the next 3-5 years go before looking any further ahead.

[utyinv] 07/10/2022 09:16

lovewinshatelosses,

If you watch the share price over say ten years you will see that the trend is always the same after June there is no need to hold the shares and Institutions either offload or loan out to those who wish to short, for an additional fee ( loan fee).

That is fine if you wish to day trade etc but not if you wish to leave it and expect it to continue to grow over the years. To get back to £11 or even £12 will take all the effort of the April yield to get there. But the stock has only reached £12+ twice once in 2016 and again this year.

This Utility is the most efficient and prosperous with opportunities to become far far bigger than todays level and this should be reflected in the share price. £20/ share is not unreasonable for a major utility that operate in both the UK and USA with 50% of its revenues coming from US$.

If a car maker can be worth £1 trillion when there are many car firms to choose from, when tesla has a range that will invariable leave you stranded for any lengthy journey as opposed to a Utility that is reliable, delivers all the time and needed by every one of us. Completely illogical that Tesla an average one of many car firms is 32 times bigger that the Great NG that provides critical activities in the UK and the USA ( in affluent areas such as NY, NY State, Mass, Boston etc)

[lovewinshatelosses] 06/10/2022 21:38

The lack of quarterly dividends did not stop NG from going over 12 quid from sub 9, so I do not think that is the issue. IMO it is the debt pile (which does not overly concern me in this specific case) as well as nagging doubts as to what the medium term holds for NG. Such as a potential windfall tax, which cannot be dismissed out of hand IMO. Or what the seemingly likely black outs will do to profits in the next year or two. Sticky inflation. Will these issues impact dividend payments etc. Not to mention the nationalisation threat, which I personally do not consider likely. But I could be wrong and in this current climate, you really cannot take much off the table. IMO the politicians across the spectrum are pretty clueless. They are flailing around and I do not see this changing in 2023 or even 2024, unless we have a number of extremely positive macro outcomes. Which I am less confident about. Nonetheless, I am comfortable with these risks in the 8's. If it does indeed bounce off 9 and rally back up, I will miss the boat. In which case, so be it.

[yachtmaster2] 06/10/2022 18:16

Hard to know where this market will go.

[yachtmaster2] 06/10/2022 18:00

My average is 8633. Pretty much lost all my profit ( apart from a few K ) however I still remind myself I’m now an income investor since retirement and I’m not smart enough to be a trader. Maybe top up time soon.

[tuftymatt] 06/10/2022 17:17

I now hold at a 1035 average but wont add again until we can see positive signs.
Good luck all holders.

[utyinv] 06/10/2022 16:36

Yanks shorting the stock. Will the Company ever listen and adopt the quarterly dividend philosophy? No, because they say institutional investors like it this way so that after final dividend they can short the hell out of the stock.

Then people wonder why the shares don’t grow over the years. Because to make up the vast loss in share price due to the short, it would need a miracle for it to grow. Yes I believe its not unreasonable for a leading world class utility working across two continents to be worth £66billion ( £20/ share), but it would take the CEO JP and Agg CFO to pay a little extra in admin costs to bring in a quarterly dividend ie, circ £100k as opposed to losing £12billion in share cap. The shares would not be sold off if there was another evenly weighted dividend around the corner.

Don’t forget, a low share cap doesn’t look good when the Company needs to borrow to invest in capital infrastructure

[grahamite2] 06/10/2022 15:49

In at 907. Yes, it may very well go to 8s - but it might bounce off 9 with stop losses etc.

[gbh2] 06/10/2022 09:20

Dire share price performance!

[grahamite2] 05/10/2022 15:24

Glad I waited to see how things would go when the US opened.

[gilesy911] 04/10/2022 09:49

Hope I didn't at this rate...

[prokartace] 04/10/2022 09:26

Best check you actually bought them then

[gilesy911] 03/10/2022 15:58

Well I bought 804 at 10.85 on T-20... not heard from my broker yet and that was late August!!!

[skinny] 03/10/2022 15:46

Bounty - you can eke out another couple of years :-