National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[colsmith] 04/7/2023 10:07

MIKE - 30 energy suppliers - I suggest these 30 are all ones that buy energy (from generators) and sell it to customers - taking the margin. A greet model but suffers when energy generation prices are not static.

[mike24] 04/7/2023 08:04

todays news energy suppliers should retain profits
rather than payout returns to shareholders
ofgem " we must learn the lessons of the energy crisis"
after 30 suppliers have gone bust since 21

[gbh2] 03/7/2023 10:53

I hold some NG all year round but I sell off (varying amounts)pre ex divi day, much depends upon which dividend we are approaching.

Before last divi I was selling at 11.75 I've been buying back recently ca 10.40, I may one day be caught out, but I've made my cash for this year and the Divi I do receive, will be the icing.

[utyinv] 03/7/2023 09:50

Mike24

Post 8508: Cash will be king……… I can see your point.

But isn’t that what Andrew Bailey is really trying to do? Convince you to convert assets into cash and then rob you via high inflation, before any interest rise given by banks offsets any losses you encounter by the inflation.
He has been saying for years that inflation is transitional but times ahead will be tough. So that tends to fool people into converting assets into cash. But Governments and Treasuries destroy cash wealth by allowing inflation to run riot. This is clearly depicted in Andrew Craig’s book ‘How to win the World’ (great book - 3rd edition has all the info and can be picked up at a discount now …..because of a fourth and possibly fifth edition).

It makes it clear, that if you had £100k cash a year ago, with REAL inflation for the last 12 months being 12% that £100k is only worth £88k now. Banks have only started to offer interest rates of more than 2-3%.

However, if you have it invested in some commodity the price of that commodity rises with inflation.

Not saying keep it in NG shares, but what commodity do you sink your capital into to protect your wealth? Property may take a slump with high lending rates. Gold hasn’t been anything to get excited about.

What asset is of low value today that might rocket in the next 12 months that is easily sold to consolidate profit???? When you know, let me know. We should all share ideas, the purpose of these BBs or Threads👍

[bountyhunter] 02/7/2023 18:03

By Aug 24 when that 5.9% is paid the NG divi may beat it. At today's price and this year's divi the yield is 5.3%.

[gbh2] 02/7/2023 13:59

Not much good when capital value of holding is down 11%

[mike24] 02/7/2023 13:13

NG divi 5.29%
last friday best saving rate went to 5.9% with 20k limit
till aug/24
edit,the point being for a savings rate that high we are in for tough times ahead
and cash will be king

[gbh2] 30/6/2023 15:24

Dire share price action, I can't envisage a reason for continuing to hold these after next divi payment.

[gbh2] 27/6/2023 08:18

Been buying back the shares I sold before ex dividend, nice profit :)

[tuftymatt] 22/6/2023 21:23

Thanks UtyINV and let's hope you are correct 👍🏻

[utyinv] 22/6/2023 17:06

CPIH for May 7.9% up from 7.8% for April.

This is, as many of you know important, as the average CPIH across the year April to March inc determines the dividend.

So even if Sunak does get inflation down to 5% at the end of the year it wouldn’t surprise me to learn, come next April that average CPIH for the previous 12 months will come in at 5.9%. So, I forecast next years divi, interim plus final to come in at 58.71p hopefully, 3.72p more per share than this year.

[utyinv] 21/6/2023 14:47

National Grid Named One of 'America's Best Employers' - ACCESSWIRE

[gbh2] 17/6/2023 11:33

"for what exactly?"

Contractually they get paid and Free shares for Success or Failure.

[newbank] 16/6/2023 17:17

UtyINV is right,

Despite the poor performance in NG SP, I too find it hard to understand why the Directors would be paid a Bonus for less than mediocre performance.

Just look at the RNS disclosure today 16th June of Directors exercising their Bonus of free shares, for what exactly?

[gbh2] 14/6/2023 16:08

Dividend wiped out and capital value decimated yet the directors will be helping themselves to big rises for being useless!

[utyinv] 14/6/2023 08:57

I see that the number of shorts have continued to increase in the US. Some shady Shysters in the US.

Pensioners got a max 5% rise, even though the Parent Company, NG, can implement a rise greater than 5% as they did in the 1990s. Staff got 9.8% rise and JP ( despite the poor performance in the share price, had his remuneration increased from £6m to £7.2m, that is a 20% increase.

[utyinv] 08/6/2023 22:12

Marktime1231:

Yes cash figures look a bit iffy but that is a cut and paste from the Telegraph🤷

[marktime1231] 08/6/2023 12:36

Pretty sure NG does not have net cash of 36.9B.

[gbh2] 08/6/2023 11:53

Picked up a few more today, share price too good to ignore imo.

[utyinv] 06/6/2023 16:21

National Grid key facts
• Market value: £39bn
• Turnover (March 24E): £21.6bn
• Pre-tax profits (March 24E): £3.3bn
• Yield (March 24E): 5.5pc
• Most recent year's dividend (March 23):
55.44p
• Net cash (March 23): £36.9bn
• Return on capital: (March 23): 5.9pc
• p/eratio: (March 24E): 15.4

[utyinv] 06/6/2023 16:12

From the Telegraph:

This company is in a powerful position for capital returns

Questor share tips: National Grid has defences against home political developments – with 45pc of regulatory asset value in US

By Russ Mould 6/6/2023

Shares in National Grid are ex-dividend as of last Thursday and 37.6p a share in cash will land with shareholders on Aug 9, to add to the healthy share price gain we have on paper following our latest look at the utility last November.

The FTSE 100 company still looks capable of providing a welcome mix of yield and capital returns.

National Grid owns and operates the UK’s electricity and gas transmission network (and similar networks in the United States).

These are tightly regulated, as it received a pre-set price from energy suppliers based on the size of its asset base rather than the volume of energy it transmits.

This is a sensitive area economically and politically and the attentions of the regulator, under the price control regime, plus the company’s substantial capital investment bill (£8bn in the fiscal year to March 2022), should partly deflect criticism of profiteering for those concerned about such issues, either from an ethical perspective or out of fears that the regulator could tighten the screws even further.

That said, changes to the Government’s capital allowance regime will impact earnings growth in the year to March 2024, when underlying earnings per share (EPS) could come in slightly lower.

Some 45pc of the utility’s regulatory asset value lies in the US, so that also offers a shield from political developments in the UK, while those investors who run strict ethical, environmental and social (ESG) screens may draw further comfort from how National Grid is setting up a new business that will facilitate the connection of 17 offshore wind projects to the UK grid.

Such projects underpin the company’s plan to grow its regulatory asset base by 8pc to 10pc a year out to March 2026, a trajectory which is also expected to deliver consistent earnings growth (once the bump caused by the new tax regime in the UK is passed) and in turn underpins analysts’ forecasts for steady dividend increases.

The forward 5.5pc yield will catch the eye of income seekers and could stand out if, as and when the interest rate cycle turns and the Bank of England starts to hold and then cut the headline base rate, utilities are not (crudely) viewed as bond proxies without good reason.

Lower rates will likely weigh on bond yields and lower bond yields could increase the relative attraction of plump dividends from equities.

National Grid remains an income staple.

Questor says: HOLD

[viscount1] 02/6/2023 18:59

Yes, tax efficient.

Most holdings are outside of tax wrappers, and subject to income tax on dividends of up to a stonking 39.35%, compared to a maximum of 20% CGT.

UK retail investors have (for reasons of history) trapped themselves into massively overvaluing yield on equities over total return.

[utyinv] 02/6/2023 15:33

Viscount: tax efficient???

If the shares are held within an ISA no tax to pay.

Over the years, I ( like many on this bb), have ‘bed and breakfast’d217; shares held outside an ISA to that within an ISA. Using max allowance, and if married you can shelter £40k / year.

Once in the ISA you can buy, sell, receive dividends etc etc without paying tax.

Buy backs are only good for the BoD to achieve targets of increasing income per share. Buy backs have been accused as an easy way for BoDs to increase earnings per share without using innovative growth ideas.

Many Companies that do carry out buybacks follow that up by issuing new shares usually to reward Directors even though the performce of the shares are very very poor.

I have argued for many years that the basic salary is reward enough and bonuses are there for extraordinary performance.

[gbh2] 02/6/2023 12:55

I have several holdings that are currently subject to buy backs, all are suffering share price wise because the slow increase in ESP takes time to feed through to punters, the Directors are the only ones to gain short to medium term!

Buy backs are for mug punters imo.

Edit, Today I started my buyback of NG :)