National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[elena saratov] 06/1/2022 23:18

Looking at the chart here the share was well overbought.
The correction is well underway.
I will be adding to my "Short" position here on the way down.
I am not an enthusiastic Shorter unless there is a compelling argument against the particular share.
Western Power will prove to be another burden on the investment here.
How was this aquisition financed?
By increasing debt of course!
Western Power have a lot of infrastructure that does not meet National Grid Standards.
They are "sub standard".
This has risen on a lot of "Blue sky thinking".
I will be buying at 800p.
Good luck to all holders.
For those who are brave enough to buy more at such elevated levels just try to imagine who will be "selling" you these shares? :)

[keelstow] 05/1/2022 12:18

19 January 2022

2021/22 interim dividend paid to qualifying shareholders

brings divi returns to around half of purchase price in 8 years with a 38% rise in original share price

edit: overlooked special divi adds another 83p

[utyinv] 05/1/2022 10:41

NG has also the intellect to make money. They bought Crown Castle for £1 billion and sold it a few years later for £4billion. How much unregulated business is NG investing in? Think of the unregulated aspects of WPD business ie EV charging points

[utyinv] 05/1/2022 10:24

I think Elenor is someone who is politically motived in a certain direction.

Why else would someone throw negativity after many posts of reassurances regarding the reasoning for the Company’s debt?

On the subject of debt (which during times of mass inflation would be eradicated - £1billion today may seem like £1million in ten years time), one must question whether the books truly reflect the situation. Eg how does NG get its income and on what basis is the Net Asset value calculated, bearing in mind customers bills would be adversely affected if the true Net Asset value was recorded.

As I have mentioned earlier, Tesla which produces cars and also have many competitors has a market value of £1.1 Trillion and National Grid who has Assets in the UK, US and Europe has a current Mrkt Cap of only £36Billion.

The point being made is that NG has been told to raise Debt by the regulator and NG’s Assets are not correctly recorded too. All part of the mathematical manipulation of reducing bills.

How much of NG is regulated? There is also a difference in terms regarding regulation in the US and the UK.

In the US utilities operate on a more even playing field where ROE is much higher than here where the regulator’s main objective is to reduce customer’s bills even though they are artificially set low and not sustainable.

In the US bills are kept fair but Companies providing essential services are also encouraged to invest and maintain reliability and security. Where business and investment are not dirty words, where the philosophy of capitalism is used in harmony to provide benefits to customers.

[chucko1] 05/1/2022 10:00

Re: 7958

They are not run on the basis to service debt! They are run on the basis to provide dividends to shareholders - that is the objective function and to do this, they must service debt. This is extremely fundamental to the whole debate.

Furthermore, there are a number of professionals who post on these boards. What is more, they are ex-professionals and therefore have considerable experience.

[skinny] 05/1/2022 09:52

Utilities out of favour generally this morning.

[50plus] 05/1/2022 08:32

Something looks to have spooked market interest!

[dartboard1] 05/1/2022 06:21

You can't compare debt levels of NG to other listed companies. Compare it to other monopoly operating grid companies. RTE in France has higher debt levels pro rata for profit generation... Also, have a look at the maturity and interest rates on the bonds they have issued. Rising interest rates are not going to lead to higher interest charges on existing debt...

[elena saratov] 04/1/2022 23:01

chucko1,

I am just a mere amateur investor.
I am sure professionals would neither post or be able to post here.

The fact is that this company has an eye wateringly high level of debt.
They are run on the basis to service the debt.
If they cannot reduce the debt level significantly during a period of low interest rates then I pity poor investors here.

[skinny] 29/12/2021 09:52

Meanwhile 20+ month high @1093.40p.

[utyinv] 29/12/2021 09:50

Elena,

Doesn’t really matter how much energy you produce or not produce, if you don’t have the means to transport it……? So forgive me but your point in this area is pointless.

You’re obviously trying to short the stock, sold and trying to buy back cheap or have other motives. Like I said earlier shares go up and down, so for those of us who are investors rather than day traders, we will ride the highs and lows whilst happily taking the dividend. Why sell unless you need to raise cash or you rely on ‘Day Trading’?

[elena saratov] 28/12/2021 23:25

National Grid produce how much energy?
There was me thinking that they owned the Major Grid?
Debt riddled with no real outlook for Debt reduction.
I think if a company bought NG. and settled their debts then it could be a going concern.
I will come back at 800p.
Good luck

[mattboxy] 27/12/2021 23:22

Some interesting points there. I will watch these closely again.

[utyinv] 27/12/2021 17:45

Also debt was the same percentage, pro rata, as when they were floated on the Stock Market in 1995. The price then was £2.20. Today it has the same debt ( pro rata), but what will the share price be when new business, non regulated, income streams start to hit the coffers?

[utyinv] 27/12/2021 17:35

Elena Saratov;

You have got to understand how National Grid operates, ie, debt level was encouraged by Ofgem and Government to ensure capital investment wasn’t too punishing for customers.

Having worked in the Nationalised business before Privatisation I can assure you the lack of business acumen, poor decisions and waste that existed was unbelievable. If the industry wasn’t Privatised the energy bills would be many times higher than it is today.

Buying coal from the NCB for coal fired P Stns at four times the market price of coal just to subsidise Miners who wanted 20% pay rises was criminal.

Also don’t forget that the US Business is doing well and the take over of WPD in this Country will be profitable, especially when they have contracts to install EV charging points, which because of the Competitive nature, is unlicensed business.

You say sell up now. What is your motive? Shares go up and down but in the long term I believe NG could be hitting £20/ share. That would make the Company Cap only £68 billion whilst companies like Tesla ( who have many competitors ) have a market cap of £1100 Billion or £1.1 trillion. Put things into perspective.

Once the Sys Ops is sold back to the Government ( Gov are prepared to pay for Sys Ops to be returned to public ownership or run by an independent body), shareholders will get their compensation and some of the shackles that have restricted NG will be removed.

Sys Ops only brings in £70mil of the £2 Billion profit NG currently brings in.

Nothing in life is free and if Joe Public want reliable energy, available at the flick of a switch, they will have to pay for it.

Debt would normally be a problem to other Companies but not to NG and utilities in general because the regulators have told these companies to work at these debt levels for reasons already mentioned

[dartboard1] 26/12/2021 09:41

Lots of comments lately about high debt levels and the risk of rising interest rates. Most of their debt is issued as bonds with fixed interest rates or RPI linked (most revenue streams at NG are also linked to RPI). Non bond borrowings they do have at libor is hedged with interest rate swaps...

[elena saratov] 25/12/2021 08:55

Hmmmmm
Collosol debt levels here soon to be punished.
Lenders welcome you with open arms when you borrow this kind of money at low interest rates.
All the while looking at your data. Inflation sneaks up on you and the next thing the company struggles to pay the interest. This places pressure on the dividend and as soon as it is cut the share price collapses.
Companies that operate in crucial infrastructure should not operate with such debt levels.
The government won't let them go out of business, but won't bail out shareholders either.
Looking at the chart it maybe a great time to sell up now.

[gilesy911] 22/12/2021 17:49

Merry Christmas to all on here and look forward to a prosperous 2022

[jt58] 21/12/2021 17:54

Nice deckies!

[bountyhunter] 21/12/2021 17:06

Cheers everyone, you've inspired me to update the header but I've just run through it and I think it's reasonably up to date with no dead links.
I'll add a bit of Christmas cheer but it will probably only be visible on mobile devices!
NGG looking good in NY as I post.

[bob13159] 21/12/2021 16:56

Cheers Bounty and Merry Christmas everyone.

[lovewinshatelosses] 21/12/2021 15:43

Cheers Bounty and happy Christmas all.

[bountyhunter] 21/12/2021 15:40

Thanks and Merry Christmas all!

[banj] 21/12/2021 15:16

Aye, ditto. Thanks Bounty. Energy it seems, is the new Tech for share price growth! Merry Christmas one & all here on NG.