National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[newbank] 07/1/2018 19:37

Gutterhead, Coxsmn,

I agree with what you both say about politics and I also agree with Pogue and Utyinv.

This bb is a great thread but as someone had mentioned, politics does play a large part in the valuation of NG. Not wishing to quote Trump:- "there is a lot of fake news about", that is affecting Company valuations.

Not only is there a threat from Labour but the blanket price cap that TM had announced as part of pandering to the media is one of the main problems even though as Utyinv had mentioned, the City cannot or will not, accept the differences between the Big Six retailers and how National Grid revenues are agreed with the Regulator. The Big Six work to different agreements and though there will be some ripples that may wobble NG's UK earnings a little, I think that the City have overblown it to force down the share price.

I also agree with Utyinv that all parties should rally round TM to get the best deal done so that we can all move on and hopefully have three years of building our economy to where it should be.

I expect the price to rise on Weds as I expect many investors will be re-investing their dividends.

Hopefully, and endorsing what Utyinv has already mentioned more than once, in order to gauge how NG is performing we need to look at the income from the second half and even though its early days, to see how the strategy of investing more in the US against that in the UK is paying off.

In 2019, more than 65% of the Company's revenues will be based on US earnings, after the 39% remaining stake in the Gas Distn is sold off and if there was to be(as Utyinv puts it), a Marx Bros Gov (cracks me up that term), then those that vote them in might just quickly regret it for the rest of their lives. Hence the saying...Be careful for what you wish for, at your peril, you just might get it.

[warranty] 07/1/2018 19:19

Apologies gh I will attempt to stick only to NG matters though clearly any plans a Corbyn led government, however unlikely, or far away, may have its clear that the market sees it as a risk which might occur and has marked the shares down accordingly. Like you I see this as a massive buying opportunity but if others like pogue prefer not to take the risk it is entirely understandable.

[coxsmn] 07/1/2018 18:11

Agreed gutterhead, there's always the shorters here who want to try and push the price down further.

[gutterhead] 07/1/2018 17:16

Might we talk about how NG is performing as a business soon?
I’d rather think about what’s likely to helps next week/month/year than worry about what might happen in four and a half years.
Great buying opportunity as far as I can see.
It’s a 5% dividend share, great dividend cover, 35% less than a fair valuation (IMO)
This has been a great thread but has become far too political/bickering and lost its way.
I don’t want to offend
Thnaks, GH

[coxsmn] 07/1/2018 17:09

P, if necessary NG could take steps to protect the non UK part of the business (accounts for >50% of revenues and growing) and therefore more than halving the impact to shareholders of any Nationalisation.

Worst case i can only see the UK part of the business ever being Nationalised and there's a lot of if's that this will even happen.

regards.

[pogue] 07/1/2018 15:39

Coxsmn
there is a good chance Corbyn will be PM if you look at the state of the parties right now he would be PM of a coalition government if there was a vote. In 4 years time who knows but I prefer to bet on what I see not on what I don't see. I can get better yield from another share with what I see as less risk so am rotating out if your gut feel is the world will be different in 4 years then bet accordingly.
Regards Brexit I used it as an example of how illiterate the UK electorate are I could have used other examples but that was the most recent others have taken the topic further and I replied.
Regards the price of nationalisation I think you will be very surprised at Labour tactics I do not see them playing fair at all I do not expect shareholders to get anywhere near fair value for their company assets. Just listen to Corbyn etc and you will see they are already bringing out weasel words and preparing for the massive backlash from the stock market when they implement their plans.


UtyINV
Career politicans, yes indeed a curse on them all, all they are interested in is keeping a job at the next election. I am beginning to think a one party state like China maybe appealing at least the top are trying to move the country forward and thinking long term, ok they are lining thier own pockets but there is only so much you can skim and our lot are not averse to a bit of skimming anyway.
I do wish others would accept the vote as you have and get on with getting a good deal instead of acting spitefully in some cases and deliberately trying to ruin things so they can say I told you so. Its really shocking how people only like democracy when they are winning.

[utyinv] 07/1/2018 00:36

FWIW,

I voted remain but respect the electorate’s decision and believe all politicians should back TM in getting the best deal for the U.K. asap!

I have very close links with Europe but dislike the actions taken by the EU negotiators to put obstacle after obstacle to scupper a successful exit.

Corbyn is making us look foolish not TM! He cannot make up his mind if the Labour Party are supporting a leave or remain stance. Many of my European family have stated that he should put the prospects of the people before his own political ambitions. If the EU realise we are all steadfast in ensuring a good deal, otherwise we are happy to leave without a deal then the EU negotiators will quickly change tact.

Corbyn and other politicians from all parties should give TM total support and we will get a great deal.

Unfortunately Corbyn and other career politicians are putting their interests before that of the electorate and if they are so adamant in having a soft Brexit they should back TM showing the UK is a Country of strength and the best deal will be achieved!

We need to get on with it! The next election should not be considered before June 2022 and it’s only 2018 it’s time for the Marx Bros to work with TM after all she IS the Prime Minister!

AIMOO

We all need to work together to put the Great back into Great Britain!

[coxsmn] 07/1/2018 00:06

P, firstly JC is not pm and there's a good chance he will never be in the future, it could be over four years until the next general election before we find out.

Over 50% of NG revenue is already in the USA where they continue to invest. This part of the business doesn't of course fall under UK regulation. I would expect Labour would only be interested in buying the UK part. In any case, there are ways NG could protect the US part which in a few years time is likely to have grown to be an even larger portion of the business.

There has also been suggestion Labour would need to pay at least the regulated asset value to nationalise NG which i understand at this time is close to the current share price So yes they would need to find a lot of money to Nationalise NG and the other utilities. I seem to remember Labour would need to find £200bn to meet all their election pledges. This size spending spree wouldn't be advisable unless the plan is to bankrupt the country.

I'm not sure where immigration and brexit fit into all of this. As i have already mentioned this thread has become far too obsessed by politics.

Regards.

[pogue] 06/1/2018 22:36

coxsmn
affordability is not an issue regards the nationalisation program what if he hits the utilities with a large windfall tax and the share prices drop like stones then they issue some dodgy bonds for whats left? Corbyn has no intention of paying full price how he achieves that is an open question. There have been hints in answers he has given when asked where is the money coming from that he has no intention of paying full price.
Th immigration question is very clear in the minds of many that voted leave control means very few coming certainly the ones I have spopken to the reality is we are going to have very similar levels as to what we have just now otherwise the economy will collapse. The immigrants I have seen in London come to the UK to work and generally find it one way or another there is no shortage of jobs so why will immigration levels be cut?

[bountyhunter] 06/1/2018 19:50

I voted Brexit as well so there are at least a few of us here, maybe even a majority as in the country. I often feel however that most of the media and a majority of politicians deliberately choose to ignore the fact that a majority in the country voted to leave the EU which is at least partly why it's it's prooving to be such a difficult process to actually leave. Blair, Clarke and Osborne are prime examples of politicians who don't even seem to want to acknowledge the result of the referendum.

[coxsmn] 06/1/2018 19:39

Pogue, Its not a case of being against immigration, it is about being able to control the level of immigration and ensuring we get people with the right skill sets to meet business needs.

[coxsmn] 06/1/2018 18:35

We have 4 years and 4 months until the next general election!

It's impossible to accurately predict what the World, EU, UK landscape and of course politics will look like. Even if JC is still Labour leader in 2022 and if the UK votes for a far left government and if utilities are Nationalised then how many more years would this take and would the government even be able to afford to do it. Would NG even be top of the list.

NG currently does over 50% of business in the USA and this is increasing, what will this percentage be years from now. It has even been mentioned NG has contingency options to protect shareholders in the event the company was Nationalised.

We need to be conscious of risks which exist with all businesses but we also need to keep things in perspective.

Regards.

[utyinv] 06/1/2018 12:50

Pogue,

Absolutely right about the 20 something. I wouldn’t be surprised if a promise of a free week in Benidorm was offered how many would vote just for a superficial one off!

Short sighted Students are called to mind.

[pogue] 06/1/2018 11:06

Sounds like the Daily Mail stirring immigration fears, what a surprise, their readers will have a warm feeling reading this since we voted leave, as I said the voting populace are not very intelligent. I remember one debate on Brexit on the tv when a 20 something stated that they would now vote remain as they just found out that mobile roaming charges in the EU may rise if we left.
The reason we vote in such bad politicians is because most voters are too stupid to see through the lies they are told hence my worry going forward on the next election result.

[arf dysg] 06/1/2018 10:25

pogue (5565) [re: Daily Mail blurb]

"Sorry I wouldn't even pick up a Daily Mail even if I was paid to."

I agree. Neither would I. I just happened to pass one in a shop and wondered what kind of vitriol they were peddling that day.


"Don't understand your point though. They quote a number of countries and their populations and say they won't join the EU what is the point exactly?"

No, it was the other way round. The DM tried to imply that those countries WOULD join the EU, but I put my comment on the end saying that the DM was talking rubbish.


It's the difference between what the Daily Mail said explicitly and what they left out, implied, what fears or preconceptions they were playing on.

Most people know that those countries wouldn't ever join the EU, but the Daily Mail (without saying it explicitly) made it sound as if those countries were about to join the EU imminently.

[coxsmn] 06/1/2018 08:21

The JC spectre has been blown up out of all proportion imho. It can be easy to get caught up in the what-if's rather than to stand back and view things more rationally. I know people who have been invested in NG for many years and have been very well rewarded. I'm excited here as the price pullback now offers me the rare opportunity of a low entry point. I've already recently purchased some yielding over 5% and will add more if the price does fall back further. If we get even close to a 6% yield share price valuation then it would be a very short lived buying opportunity. All imho.

Have a good weekend all.

[warranty] 05/1/2018 21:42

Pogue, thank you for your reasoned response and it's clear we see the various risks differently, but then that's what makes a market they say. I'm entirely positive on UK Utilities at these prices, predominantly because they are essential services and only a true Marxist Government would ever want to re nationalise and take on the hassle of not just running them but actually removing them from their various foreign owners.

I don't disagree that there is financial illiteracy but that isn't necessarily likely to help Labour. I take your point about an increasing youth vote but not that that necessarily translates into an increased vote for Labour. Not all our youth go to university or live in London and the South East and many are in areas severely affected by immigration and unemployment where Labours left seems to have few answers.

As others have indicated, despite Brexit and the atrocious GE performance by the Tories, Labour are still not really ahead in the polls. I don't remotely consider Corbyn will ever win enough votes to get close to forming a government so this scare story of him nationalising anything is way off the mark to me. I see NG and my other Utilities as ultra safe and will load up as much as I can at these silly prices.

[pogue] 05/1/2018 21:31

Labour were 4% behind the Tories in the general election when everyone said they were unelectable now they are 1 or 2% with the same Marxist policies. In a country where Labour were unelectable I would expect a massive lead in the plls for the Tories yet they are not. Add in the simple fact if those numbers were translated into seats the general election would be won by a Labour coalition with the SNP. Anyway I can't be bothered discussing this share anymore I sold out today and invested in a higher yield stock I am happy good luck to those of you who stay.

[gateside] 05/1/2018 20:40

Pogue... Last poll 2 polls: ICM had a Conservative lead of 2%YouGov had a Conservative lead of 1%With the bloody mess the Tories are making, Labour should be miles ahead in the polls... But it's fact they are not!

[pogue] 05/1/2018 19:58

Sorry I wouldn't even pick up a Daily Mail even if I was paid to. Don't understand your point though. They quote a number of countries and their populations and say they won't join the EU what is the point exactly?

[arf dysg] 05/1/2018 19:32

pogue (5 Jan '18 5560 of 5563) "the Remain side went for project fear"

Did you notice that the Daily mail was screaming "Look at how many people could come to Britain! Look at all these countries which want to join the E.U. !" and then the DM went on to quote the populations of various countries (Turkey, Syria, etc. with not a cat's chance in Hell of joining the EU), totalling probably a couple of hundred million people.

Now THAT sounds like project fear.