National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[bountyhunter] 04/1/2018 21:35

f880 - you can see a comparison between NG and SSE in the header chart (comparing to gilts). SSE has been the worse performer of the two over the past 5 years. The only consolation for both has been the yield although NG didn't perform badly at all really until the last six months. Most if not all utilities have suffered since Brexit ran into troubled water (or the Tories started to make a mess of it depending on your perspective) and Labour gained in the polls. This may well turn out to be a buying opportunity of course. Imho fwiw!

[f880gna] 04/1/2018 20:47

Pogue
I didn't say anyone shouldn't discuss anything, I just expressed incredulity at the interminable asinine political commentary. I've heard more sense being shouted at cars in pub car parks at closing time.

I don't profess to have any answers about the current share price, but I don't ascribe much weight to the nationalisation narrative. If that risk exists, it's been a static one for some time as a GE and consequent Labour gov is no more likely now than it was a week, a month, two months or six months ago. Even if that scenario did come to pass, I'm highly sceptical that an incoming Labour gov would make nationalising NG a priority.

Has anyone done any sector or company specific chart comparisons for UK/Europe/US? That would tell us more about how NG is doing relative to its peers. Perhaps there's a cyclical sector rotation away from bond proxies as central banks steer a course of interest rate rises.

[warranty] 04/1/2018 20:18

I actually love JC and JM because I never thought I'd be able to buy NG and other Utilities this cheaply. I really do have to laugh when people talk about them winning an election. There is not a cat in hells chance of that. This isn't Venezuela where the electorate is illiterate and gullible, which they would have to be to fall for the rubbish spouted by Labour.

For a start they won many seats by wafer thin majorities, mainly due to the student vote, which we know was corrupt voting at home and at University addresses. That won't happen again. Lies and misleading statements about tuition fees etc won't be believed again. Labour will never recover in Scotland now that the SNP are desperate to retain seats and the Tories couldn't possibly make such a hash of an election campaign as the last one. In fairness, nobody other than Labour want an election anyway so there won't be one.

I see the Brexit Trade Deal being satisfactorily resolved because at the end of the day the EU need a deal at least as much as we do and business interests will always win out over politics. Finally, the one certain thing you can rely on is that if you give the left enough rope they will hang themselves with their internal politics and infighting. You can worry if you want to but there's not a single doubt in my mind that it's unnecessary, so don't look back and regret grabbing these and other Utilities at this price because it won't happen again.

[srpactive] 04/1/2018 11:00

U

Your valuation is correct, I am just looking at the chart and
UK possibilities, they formed a death cross twice last year 2017
which is not the best, dyor. I wish you well here.

[utyinv] 04/1/2018 09:19

Just been talking to a few connected with NG. If the political pressures continue they can see the US business separating from the U.K. business, the Interconnectors business also separating from the U.K. core business to protect shareholders and sod Corbyns desires or TM’s ridiculous blanket statement on price caps. If National Grid was as irresponsible as some of the big six in not playing fair with customers the NG share price would have been closer to £20 than what it is now. Because NG has always acted responsible and fair it has been a victim of being morally run. TM has just tried to appease media hype and put out a claim for a blanket price cap. So, I can see there is some merit in splitting away the businesses that are being unfairly regulated or threatened and where business should be allowed to thrive.

If the business is eventually split then no investment should be made in the UK business and let the Country go to ruin. Investors require return on capital if they don’t get it they simply do not invest and go elsewhere.

[pogue] 04/1/2018 07:07

f880gna
you dont like the political discussion on this board to me, and others, this is the main reason the share is falling if you think otherwise please tell us your reasoning I for one would love to hear another logical view. If not please tell me why we should not discuss politics.

[wllmherk] 03/1/2018 20:21

I don't hold these at present, but, I have in the past. I also recently held CNA but sold out for a loss in December. It saddens me greatly to see these excellent companies being trashed by the left wing zealots now running Labour. I sold out of utilities due to the chances of a Labour Gov, which I believe is greater than many think. One factor which will assist them is the media. In years gone by I always thought the BBC were sympathetic to the left, they still are, unfortunately, other news channels are of a similar ilk whether it be ITV or Sky news.

wllm

[coxsmn] 03/1/2018 19:55

2018/01/5-dividend-shares-worth-buying-today-centrica-plc-bp-plc-easyjet-plc-national-grid-plc-vodafone-group-plc/"National Grid is one of my favourite income stocks at the moment. The company's 5% dividend yield remains one of the highest in the FTSE 100 and this could make it a more popular stock if inflation remains high. With National Grid having a relatively resilient business model, it could offer defensive appeal ahead of what may be an uncertain year for the UK economy."

[bountyhunter] 03/1/2018 19:44

coxsmn
That will be if he ever gets in ;~}

[f880gna] 03/1/2018 19:33

Good grief, the level of political discourse here is absolutely barmy. Shame there isn't a green ink option.

[coxsmn] 03/1/2018 19:30

I think many people on this thread appear to have become obsessed by JC, i hope they are not having nightmares.

[srpactive] 03/1/2018 15:47

1

As I have said I have no position so what I say is
completely irrelevant.

[1olddog] 03/1/2018 15:33

Sr, sk. So shorters/charts. Will keep an eye on them. Thanks. Also txs to Uty for the bull case and excellent posts.

[srpactive] 03/1/2018 15:29

Yes due to just under 880p being
closed through, a double top was formed,dyor.

[skinny] 03/1/2018 15:27

The intraday low on August 24th 2015 was 806.40.

[srpactive] 03/1/2018 15:16

1

The political picture will be very scary over the next twelve months
unless you are militant, which I am not.

The chart will be used by shorters to force NG. lower, 832p would be
a short term target for them.

As I have said no position here, dyor.

[1olddog] 03/1/2018 15:04

Srpactive. Thanks for previous post - I have topped up st 850. Am genuinely interested why You think this could go to 750. Is it just political considerations discussed above? Anyway you were right about 850, and I am tempted by 800 of course.

[justiceforthemany] 03/1/2018 14:43

The last election was barely 6 months ago. The point is no one can force the Tories into an election until 2022 and why would they after the backfire last time? Market is over-reacting big time.

[saltaire111] 03/1/2018 14:31

UtyInv - another way of looking at the powergen privatisation is that it was sold (given away?) far too cheaply. The market set the price for that asset and it was a multiple of the price Mrs Thatcher sold it for.

[utyinv] 03/1/2018 14:19

Pogue,

Fair point, just need the 'Board' to separate the US utilities out and give existing shareholders one share UK business and one US Business.

If you recall when the industry was privatised National Power, Powergen, National Grid and British Energy devolved from the CEGB. Powergen were the smaller of the Generators but their shares went from £2.20 to £16.

Its how the business is run, what profits can be made and future potential gain. If Grid's investments in Electricity Car Charging systems in the US take off this could be massive!

[pogue] 03/1/2018 14:02

UtyINV
lets take a scenario whereby the government decide on a massive windfall tax on utilities this will trash the share price and then the government will nationalise the company and give the shareholders worthless bonds. You are assuming Corbyn cares what world markets think of him he doesn't he is already wargaming for the stockmarket collapse if they get elected, he is not going to play fair and is already getting the excuses ready to blame outside forces.

[utyinv] 03/1/2018 13:48

Pogue,

Toast, not necessarily, by then 70- 65% of the business will be in the US. Other elements of the U.K. system may not be renationalised. In essence of a true value of £11 / share £2-4 might be the renationalised bit and the Left Wing Gov will still give Bonds in exchange for that part of the share. Yes, I know the Bonds might be worth sod all in the Market, but if the bonds don’t pay a dividend then the reputation for Labour in world markets will be dire!
So not all lost if they get in and we just may see the end of Left Wing ideology, momentum and Big mouth self opinionated Owen Jones.

[pogue] 03/1/2018 13:33

UtyINV
I totally agree the negotiations are difficult because of the EU not the UK as the EU need to punish the UK for leaving otherwise all the PIGS will leave if they get a chance, Italy is on course for a Eurosceptic government this year when 5 Star get in and they want to leave the Euro so they can get out of the massive debts they have by the traditional devaluation route, can you see the look on German bankers faces if that happens? An example must be made of the UK and we are not going to get a good deal and the Tories will get the blame due to their divided ranks and unpreparedness making them an easy scapegoat and you can be sure the Remainers and Labour will point this out repeatedly.
If Labour get in there will be a few years of bliss for the youth, unemployed, unions etc as the money will flow as Labour rack up massive debts and tax people and companies until they leave the country but then the economy will collapse but that’s irrelevant as once Labour are in utilities are toast and that is my main worry just now leaving the country will be something I worry about in 2021.

[utyinv] 03/1/2018 12:43

Pogue,

You make some good points to which I agree somewhat, ie, the poll as they are now, the pigs ear of negotiations etc. However, of all the people who I talk to and associate with (both Conservative and believe it or not, Labour😀), they all believe the negotiations are being problematic because the Socialist Junta in Brussels want to punish Britain for daring to leave! They also want to punish the Conservatives who since Maggies days have been a thorn in their sides. However, deal will be complete by October, 10 months away, and either it is accepted or not, but Either way I doubt if an election will be called. Then from 2018 Oct to 2022 June is a long time in politics and hopefully the Conservatives can make the feel good factor kick in.
Alternatively, if Labour do get in then those who will suffer most will be the youth who have never lived through a Left Wing Government. They think they will be given this that and the other and when it isn’t delivered they will riot and we will have mayhem. The investors / older generation will just have to spend wealth abroad (no point helping a Marxist Gov)and when the kids realise there isn’t any inheritance that they were going to get, they can only blame themselves. However, I think when stark reality is put in front of them at the next election we may be surprised.

The youth today (without wishing to stereotype) are very materialistic and want things now. They are not interested in the philosophy of working hard and saving they want it now. So when it is put to them that however little was to be left to them is a historic dream if Labour get in, they just might say ‘Sod That’.

Many of the older Generation are sitting on reasonable Pensions, investments can can easily be spent and wasted as a middle finger flying the flag to the Marx Bros.

The Youth will be warned, be careful what you wish for because you just might get it and regret it for the rest of your lives.

AIMO and one can only see how things will play out and providing we are smart (The Middle Generation), we may just be OK. It’s up to every parent to teach the Kids money does not grow on trees and under a Socialist Gov you will be working hard till the day you drop. Left Wing Govs don’t want people to inspire, to better themselves they want the State to keep people under control and be grateful for it!