National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[mercury123] 19/1/2018 18:33

Well I have topped up on these this week - can't see them sticking at these lows for long, and there's a nice dividend to keep me cheerful while I wait. Good luck all

[abbotslynn] 19/1/2018 18:16

Not a bad finish for the week end.

[coxsmn] 19/1/2018 18:10

Large 2.8m share buy after the close.

[wskill] 19/1/2018 12:32

Don't think it would be so bad with labour ng. Would spin off the USA side which would be more highly rated so cannot see us losing our cash here.
And in the meantime we have dividends rising with inflation my thoughts only ,well at least this is what I am telling the leader as she has been showing a little interest of late in her isa ,sipp and brokers account portfolios.
A tad overweight in these at present across all my accounts but decent management and a business model which you can follow cannot see ng going out of business anytime soon.

[jonwig] 19/1/2018 11:28

Arf - it would be easier to point out that 95% of NG. trades are on SETS and MMs have zero influence! Every SETS trade is both a buy and a sell.

On the subject of rights issues and debt, I see their 2016-17 annual report shows that that their debt level is one they're more than comfortable, with RCF/net debt of about 16% against a long-term target of 9%. And the only corporate action I can think of (break in two) wouldn't involve a prior change of capital. Mind, a Labour gov't would throw all calculations adrift.

[db125] 19/1/2018 11:17

The buy-back seems to have stalled. Last reported purchase was 1.1m shares on Monday.

[arf dysg] 19/1/2018 10:54

willoicc (5695) "when companies are buying in stock, the price falls as MM's drop the price to encourage sellers."

On the other hand, the MMs could do nothing at all, and the price would RISE, which would .. er .. encourage sellers.

Of course, the former is a trend, while the latter is simply a price. The fact that they have opposite effects is one of the things which makes the market a very funny place.


Announcement on 2nd of June 2017:

"National Grid [...] £835 million share buy-back programme [...]
in not less than two tranches [...]
commence on 2 June 2017 and will end no later than 27 December 2017 (the "First Tranche") [...]
The maximum pecuniary amount allocated to the First Tranche of the Programme is £425,000,000. [...]"


One could easily add up the number of shares bought, and the prices, and work out how far along the programme we are. From the dates, the first tranche has ended and one could keep a lookout for the ending of the second tranche when £835m in total has been spent.

Ideally, the company would announce the running totals, instead of announcing only the individual purchases, but I doubt that they would want to do anything so useful, as that would be dangerously like giving actual information to the market and no company would want to do that.

[srpactive] 19/1/2018 10:27

U

No not part of an institution, I just follow certain stocks
whether I hold or not, but as you say started for a friend,
I mentioned to him what I thought just under 900p, do not
think he sold though which was a shame, I invest in recovery
situations, some ten bag some go bust, I have been doing
this for over thirty years.

I

You sound similar to myself, except I have never held, I do
feel the Dow will sour soon.
NG. hopefully by then will have bottomed although JC and JM
scare the living daylights out of me, dyor.

[ianood] 19/1/2018 09:09

UI - I can't answer for Srp butI used to hold a reasonable posn in NG as an income stock in my SIPP. I exited on the first threats from JC & JM which happened to be just post the special divi. I still follow the Co avidly and I suspect that in the not too distant future I will have my stake back based on the US valuation alone!

[utyinv] 19/1/2018 08:42

Srp,

Are u a trader? If you are, are you a Self Trader or work as part of an institution?

Just curious. I believe you stated that you don’t have a position here. If that is the case you appear to spend a lot of time analysing a stock that you have no position in?

If you were looking at this stock for a friend then surely that friend would have taken your advice, sold out and started focusing on other stock or just hold cash.

:)

[srpactive] 19/1/2018 07:17

c / U /all

Very good informative posts, unfortunately unless there
is a split or the LP remove JC and JM it will continue to
fall as the city are very scared of anything infrastructure
at the moment, dyor as you all have done.

[utyinv] 18/1/2018 22:55

Sep,

Holliday, was quite sharp and he came to Grid from the Oil industry hence the takeover of Transco.

The rights issue was imposed on Grid somewhat by the Regulator. National Grid are allowed by license to recover capital expenditure cost for improving the ‘System’. However the amount of new infrastructure and investment required forced the Regulator to tell Holliday and his ‘ Board’ that without a ‘Rights’ issue Customers would foot all the cost whilst shareholders would reap the rewards by an increasing Asset base. The Regulator thought it only fair that the shareholder should take some pain.

A lot of posters here quote debt and the level of debt National Grid has. Yet if they knew the history of Grid and the philosophy of how OFGEM manage the income and agree capital expenditure, they would also know that it’s the Regulator that has forced Grid to adopt the level of debt rather than charge the customer. The Regulator’s stance was that it was acceptable for such a secure business like National Grid to adopt the debt level it now has. They preferred that to extracting more money from customers. National Grid protested but was told by OFGEM it wasn’t risky at all as they and their shareholders would get the just rewards. Ironic now that the ignorant Marx Bros who are oblivious of the pain shareholders had to endure are of the opinion that shareholders should loose a Company what they had paid handsomely for!

[willoicc] 18/1/2018 22:39

It seems to me that when companies are buying in stock, the price falls as MM's drop the price to encourage sellers.

When the buy back has been completed the market should return to normal.

[septimus quaid] 18/1/2018 21:01

I remember that rights issue well.

A little while before, I was at a staff meeting and asked the CEO directly if there was going to be a rights issue (there had been some chatter in the press)?

Holliday looked me straight in the eye and said there wasn't going to be a rights issue and he was fed up of repeating the same message.

I kind of wondered, after this, if he had a screw loose?

Good talker but I don't think he ever really got his head around the business (he was a late entry and his knowledge always seemed superficial), although he was surrounded by some very good people.

[coxsmn] 18/1/2018 21:01

db, yes, they did have a 3.2bn rights issue in 2010 to adapt the uk power network for renewable energy and at the same time posted a £1.4bn increase in profit to £2.2bn. Also invested £22bn from 2010 to 2015.

[db125] 18/1/2018 20:45

coxsmn
In the 2010 sell off shareholders had to stump up £3.2bn in a rights issue and that was after the company had repeatedly reassured shareholders that it would not tap the equity markets for extra cash.

[thecroots] 18/1/2018 20:40

The fall is simply because the markets have risen. When the Dow corrects - and it will soon enough - then utilities will be in favour again. Remember, the stock market is purely a mechanism for extracting money from the impatient.

[abbotslynn] 18/1/2018 20:33

One for the bottom drawer,that's for sure. Electric cars are the wedding day.

[coxsmn] 18/1/2018 19:39

Atlantic, take a look at the max chart from 1995 on uk.finance.yahoo.com.There have been two similar sell off's before the shares resumed their upward trend.

[atlantic57] 18/1/2018 19:23

Well Something does not feel right here. I have been extolling the virtues of National Greed .However when a Company of this size keeps falling then you must consider that maybe things as good as they appear to be.

[coxsmn] 18/1/2018 19:07

srp, nearing a 6% yield.

[srpactive] 18/1/2018 15:54

j

No, maybe I should say the investors letting
the trend show the way, dyor.

[jonwig] 18/1/2018 15:45

srpactive - I can't find any notifiable short interest on NG. - can you point to any?

[srpactive] 18/1/2018 15:34

U

I feel the market will now take this closer to 800p,
they would be best to spin into two companies
so the US part can be valued accordingly higher without
the LP worry, as already said here, dyor.

[wskill] 18/1/2018 12:56

Understand the marks brothers threats but with ng.they can do nothing about nationalising American utilities which in essence this company is .
Bought a few more today .
Even with a rise in interest rates over the next few years management have got this covered ,profit will still grow as it has in the past years when interest rates were much higher.