Monitise Share Discussion Threads

[thetruthmissile] 22/8/2017 17:09

Let's see what happens after this bid fails. I hear way too many people shooting this down.

[stud-muffin] 22/8/2017 17:03

Thanks Exb

Anyone who thinks this might work out better take a look at Optare OPE as was.

Similar story and the shareholders got royally screwed.

[exbroker] 22/8/2017 15:32

To confirm the rules.
For a Scheme of Arrangement which is what we have now, 75% of the shareholders voting must vote in favour.
For an offer to succeed it needs 50% to accept as a minimum. Fiserv don’t need to own any shares before they switch to an offer, it’s all in the documents, all they need is the permission from the Takeover Panel, and given its an agreed deal and they have lifted the price I don’t think that’s a problem.
If they ended up between 50% and 75% then they can’t delist and you would stay as a minority holder in a quoted company.
Between 75% and 90% they can delist but you don’t have to sell.
Above 90% they can buy your shares.
Hope this clarifies the situation, if in doubt as to what state the company is in read the first few pages of the supplementary document!!

[thetruthmissile] 22/8/2017 15:07

Confirm your math here. 51% does not clear the 75% threshold on this second attempt unless you aren't stating something about your methodology that I am missing.
It could if this fails and then Fiserv acts with 30% interest to then get above 50%.

[exbroker] 22/8/2017 14:15

mtb4
I am not acting for anyone, I own shares myself, and as stated have experience in this area. In your post, you did not include Visa/Santander.
I think the numbers look like this
Visa/Santander 9.9
ODDO 4.98
Yabarra 4.41
MVN 3.26
Man 3.23
Gesiuris 2.5
Euresa Life 2.4
Lloyd Miller 1.88
Telefonicia 1.84
Beaumon Dark 1.72
Mastercard 1.38
Black 1.3
Mason 1.07

Total 39.87

The rest of the register is a long tail of private investor brokerage houses, Hargreaves Landsdown, Barclyshare, Interactive,Halifax, etc,etc.
So if you assume out of the 60% not listed here that only a 20% of them accept an offer then that 60% x .2 =12% and would take an offer past the finishing post.
If you see anything wrong in my methodology or maths please point it out so this board has facts and not opinions.

[stud-muffin] 22/8/2017 13:10

MTB - got to disagree.

Exb reads like he knows what he is talking about and I do not read a bias.

Truth is we have been royally conned here ( I sold out between 2.82 and 3.03p with a big five figure loss).

I was always aware of the duplicity of AIM statements but even by the markets low standards MONI have rung the bell.

No white knight here - all the IBM/Santander talk was just that - no one wants any of the company. A fire sale - pretty much a certainty if Fiserv walk will not deliver the rewards some here and LSE believe.

This goes through it will be 3.1p but I cannot discount the Cavendish 3.4p might be the final number - hence the big buyers in the market hoping they can reach a tipping point in favour.

[mikethebike4] 22/8/2017 11:23

Exb
incidentally I reckon you are acting on behalf of the arbs, who are really worried how this is going and who will loose more money than they ever could make in the current moni situation

[mikethebike4] 22/8/2017 11:21

Exb
may I ask from where you get this up to date shareholder info.
no PI is going to accept 2.96 when they can get 3.1 by waiting for your prophesy to materialise

Major Shareholders

Current to 14 August 2017
Shareholdings % No. of Ordinary Shares*
ODDO Meriten Asset Management SAS 4.98% 115,500,000
Cavendish Asset Management 4.84% 112,090,279
Banco Santander SA 4.67% 108,196,721
Jacobo Ybarra 4.41% 102,328,370
MVN Asset Management Limited 3.08% 75,592,686

I make it 22% only - nowhere near enough even given these are a week old

[exbroker] 22/8/2017 11:00

thetruthmissilke
I try to keep my post as factual as possible, I don’t spout opinions without the facts to back them up. Please don’t accuse me of fake arrogance because you do not agree with what I post. I spend over a decade dealing with arb funds worldwide so I have some idea how they and takeover deals work. If you don’t like my posts, and I suspect you have not bothered to read any from the other boards the answer is simple DONT READ THEM!

[thetruthmissile] 22/8/2017 01:30

No offense... but the fat lady sings either way.
And if you are wrong, and I know you don't want to be but you very well may be, I want you to promise me you will stop posting on message boards forever. Your fake arrogance is difficult to read.

[exbroker] 22/8/2017 00:24

If they don’t get the 75% of those voting they will switch to an offer. Looking at the shareholders list which I have there is at least 40% who will accept an offer and that without counting any of the unknowns, This stock is less and less held by the PI`s as each day goes by and more by the arbs. 10m shares today have moved sides from PI`s to arbs, the fat lady is coughing and getting ready!

[anotherardbeg] 21/8/2017 19:44

If pi's are selling must be because they believe this will get voted down and the price will revert to something like 1.9 and the company eventually goes bust in the long term? To me management have thrown in the towel. Somebody tell be I'm wrong.

[exbroker] 21/8/2017 16:44

mtb4 who knows!!!!

[mikethebike4] 21/8/2017 16:05

Exb
Why would PIs be selling at 2.95p when they are guaranteed 3.1P in a short while or better if they wait for developments ?

[exbroker] 21/8/2017 14:58

Private investors are selling stock to the market makers mostly Winterflood who is knocking them out on the board, check the times of the manual and automatic trades to see what I mean. Cavendish is the only UK II on the shareholders list other than the arbs and they have been buying the stock today.

[mikethebike4] 21/8/2017 12:27

lot of selling today - IIs worried about being caught with a lot of stock and cutting their losses ?

[exbroker] 20/8/2017 20:25

timbob
They can switch to an offer now if the panel agrees, it’s in the small print. Also, if they wait 3 months? then the offer can be at the same level it need not be better. Have a look at the supplementary circular, it gives details.

[thetruthmissile] 20/8/2017 16:26

For that they will need an interest in shares of 30%.

[timbob2000] 20/8/2017 14:06

Exbroker: According to the takeover rules Fiserv will not be able to make another offer for 12 months, however it says the takeover panel may consent to a new offer if the new offer is 3 months after the original offer has lapsed, and the board of Monitise recommend the new offer. Of course any new offer will have to be above the previous 3.1p offer. You are right though, Fiserv/Bidco will be free to purchase shares in Monitise.

[exbroker] 19/8/2017 19:21

If the sceme fails to be voted through they will switch to an offer which requires 50%

[timbob2000] 19/8/2017 13:01

Missile & MTB4: Agreed, as a long term holder here I think it's important to put things into perspective, obviously just recently we have been told of doom and gloom by the Moni board and Fiserv, however I cannot help but see Fiserv's interest as a real positive, and one which I think if handled correctly could have a substantial impact on Moni's outlook. If Fiserv were to take out a licence on FinKIT and then use there substantial clout and business relationships I could see things getting very interesting, and infact Fiserv becoming a powerful partner for Monitise. Of course Fiserv may have there own separate plan and agenda which includes none of the above. My only real problem though is whether our illustrious board can see past there own noses for a moment and start to think long term again.

[thetruthmissile] 18/8/2017 19:30

Timbob2000:

That is an example of the exact type of deal that would make more sense for long term value to shareholders.