Allenby have guided £4m loss next year. Google Allenby Mirriad research note.I assume they will need another £6m cash for audit sign off and I speculate it will be at 0.1p (likely less). I actually do not think they will be able to raise and will go under. |
LL there's nothing more to say on the matter until you can back up your earlier comments
"Okay so 7bn shares in issue and guidance of £8m revenue next year and no guidance given for 2026 but let's guess at £20m revenue. "
Which you've refused to do 3 times now on this LSE discussion, because you've been caught out again trying to push your own agenda yet again.
Now Produce the numbers to back-up your argument.
LOTM |
Yep, there you go again LL asked to explain something so that everyone reading it can see it in laid out facts (black & white) & you just go making it up to suit your agenda once more instead.
I laid out the worst possible case scenario given all the information in the public domain nice & clearly for you.
You were asked to provide the numbers either monthly or quarterly to back up your case based on your earlier statements & you can't otherwise you'd have done so.
Enough said.
LOTM |
You're too slow. Mirriad will burn cash in H1. The auditor needs a year's cash to sign off on a going concern basis. Mirriad says if bad reduced costs to £8m pa so if they sign the accounts off in June mirriad will need to have at least £8m in cash. Mirriad wont have signed orders from reputable cos (guaranteed payment) as they have no visibility on sales (hence guidance always missed). The auditor wont take Stephan on his word that H2 and Q4 will be great so don't worry. They will have the begging bowl out early next year. |
 So according to you a business that has £4.6M in the bank at 31 Dec 2024 & is going to lose £4M in 2025 & make a profit in 2026 needs an additional £6M to fund that scenario!
Now to quote your earlier statement .....
"Okay so 7bn shares in issue and guidance of £8m revenue next year and no guidance given for 2026 but let's guess at £20m revenue. "
Now what kind of model meets all these criteria ?
I'm looking forward to the seeing your quarterly or monthly Mirriad cash balances that justify all of the above given the cash burn is only £2M per quarter (with no revenue coming in).
Just to keep you on the straight & narrow before you come up with these magical numbers, here's the worst case scenario laid out for you in black & white with £1M gross revenue in 2024, £1.2M gross revenue in 2025
Dec 2024 £4.6M Cash in the bank
Mar 2025 £2.6M (£2M cash burn plus £0.45M of net cash [£0.6M gross] from Q4 2024) gives an adjusted figure of £3.05M
Jun 2025 £0.6M (£2M cash burn plus £0.15M of net cash [£0.2M gross] from Q1 2025) gives an adjusted figure of £1.20M
Sep 2025 -£1.4M (£2M cash burn plus £0.15M of net cash [£0.2M gross] from Q2 2025) gives an adjusted figure of -£0.65M
Dec 2025 -£3.4M (£2M cash burn plus £0.15M of net cash [£0.2M gross] from Q3 2025) gives an adjusted figure of -£2.50M
Mar 2026 -£5.4M (£2M cash burn plus £0.50M of net cash [£0.6M gross] from Q4 2025) gives an adjusted figure of -£4.00M
Jun 2026 -£7.4M (£2M cash burn plus £0.15M of net cash [£0.2M gross] from Q1 2026) gives an adjusted figure of -£5.85M
Now even using that worst case scenario, they don't get to -£6.0M by the end of June 2026 & quite frankly no-one would give them any funding whatsoever if that was what was going to happen because they would have already proved the business model doesn't work full stop.
So lets see your figures that include the £6.8M (£8M - £1.2M that I did use for 2025) that isn't in the figure plus some of that £20M figure in Q1 2026 (I only used £0.2M of it).
And don't forget I only used £1M gross for 2024, if they surpass that number then the figures will need to be adjusted upwards accordingly.
Disingenuous, I don't think so, maybe you need to look in that mirror of yours.
LOTM |
Assume TBTT is wrong and the legal challenges re unions/permissions etc goes away and mirriad has a broader and more viable business model than many believe.Their own guidance has them losing £4m FY25. We know most of this will will occur in the slow H1 and we know their is a lack of visibility on forward sales so they will need a cash injection to continue as a going concern beyond June. Like this year it is not easy for loss making PLCs to raise cash. A discounted raise if they have the interest seems highly likely. Given where the share price is let's say 6bn shares at 0.1p for £6m. If they are able to get one away I suspect the co will have a future as they must have convinced IIs to throw yet more money at it and I suspect they will need more than Stephan's word. Okay so 7bn shares in issue and guidance of £8m revenue next year and no guidance given for 2026 but let's guess at £20m revenue. At 1.5 multiplier the market cap will be £30m if they realise that and RNS in Jan 2027 trading update. With 7bn shares that will mean a share price of circa 0.45p. Now one can argue about revenue multipliers but they tend to be between a factor or 1 and 2 and more often nearer to 1 than 2 so 1.5 seems fair enough. My point being IIs will be even more risk averse given the track record here. Of course they could hit £100m in 2026 and the share price could be over 1p in 2027 but many ifs and buts. I don't think they'll get a raise away or indeed sell the co. So if they finally manage to hit their guidance of £8m revenue which will have a Jan 2026 RNS and there are 7bn shares in issue with a 1.5 multiplier the share price would be circa 0.16p so a 60% uplift on a 0.1p raise and that would be an impressive uplift in likely 10 months or so. Again, the question is will they get a raise away in Q1 next year (they surely won't leave it so late as likely a larger discount). |
Definitive 6 month countdown begins - Success or Failure
So now the 6 month countdown to potential Success or Failure begins for Mirriad.
It's certainly priced for failure by the market, but will that be the case or can it turn things around & recover, then thrive?
It all starts with how long it will take to have end to end Programmatic working & once in place, will that be the catalyst to proving the Business model actually works with very significant growth in the revenue generated from it, cumulating with the all important Upfronts 25 in May 2025.
Or are there other pieces missing from the puzzle that need added & can they added in time to prove to investors that this is a viable Business opportunity or not before the cash runs out ( the company's internal projections still have them reaching month to month cash-flow break even in 2025).
Looking at the cash side of things, there was just over £6M in the bank account at the end of October & the cash burn rate is now effectively at £2M per quarter (excluding any revenue generated) which would be enough to get you to the end of July 2025. Payment on any revenue is slow, you're looking at around a 90 day delay but a high gross margin of around 80% on it.
Revenue for 2024 is currently forecast to be between £1M & £2M with £0.4M of that occurring in the 1st half of 2024 (so that part is already factored into the 31st Oct cash balance).
If they hit the £1M estimate that will mean £0.6M gross £0.5M net needs to be added to the cash balance during Q1 2025 with close to £0.1M of that already occurring in Oct (via the ispot campaign) & therefore in the bank account by end of Jan 2025. Obviously any revenue generated above that £1M figure would need to be factored in once its known.
So 2nd half of 2024 revenue (mainly from Q4) should extent Mirriad having cash in the bank account until virtually the end of Aug 2025 before taking account of any revenue coming in, in 2025.
Mirriad need around $65M of ad$ to be spent with their USA Content partners to break even annual.
So with an estimated £4.6M in the bank at 31st Dec 2024, there going to need at least $35M of ad$ to make it through to the end of 2025.
1 potential Upfronts contract for between $20-40M sadly fell through in 2024 due to a "clearance" issue with the content provider, if for example that were to go ahead in 2025 then that would totally change the complexion of the situation Mirriad finds itself in wouldn't it. How the market would react to such news is another matter entirely!
LOTM |
And if their patented IP created a genuine moat and was valuable they would have been acquired before now as they were even up for sale last year and no takers. I mean even at 5p is only £50m and even a smaller fry operator could chuck that it and and for a major player it's peanuts. Given where the share price is I suspect most holders would take 3p so £30m. It looked like a good idea to those of us not in the industry a while ago but clearly a lot amiss here. The pathetic revenues, CEO could be on 50% of FY revenue, lack of strategic partners and no one buying all the way down here (except for a few retail morons) says it all. |
Institutional investors are pulling the plug here ..
Enjoy Xmas because it looks like the last one for MIRI |
If his past is anything to go by ..
Doing the opposite
ENET are about to go north. |
Were is LOTM ??
After ramping and enticing private investors in to this ..
I’ll tell you
He’s on LSE trying warn everyone about ENET
Seriously take a look
Yet quiet on MIRI
it’s this area that the government are looking at
His he actually paid for this behaviour imo he is ..
I’ve reported him to the actual investigation team who are monitoring Advfn LSE and several other FB boards
Note
Be very careful what you are writing. |
Given revenues have again been downgraded and we know H1 always very poor a raise, if they are able to get one away is nailed on. Even the house broker note forecast a £4m loss next year and mirriad has always missed guidance so that likely to be worse and as at end of Oct they had less cash than Dec 31 last year. They raised at 3p last year, 1.25p this year and the next raise if another discount will be let's say 0.1p and several billion shares. That is if they can get one away as retail will not have the cash. I am sure the CEO will keep this going as long as he can go take his £40k a month and use all the cash they have so shareholders will be left with nowt. |
No position here - but enjoying the exchanges.
I am not intimately familiar with the offering so hard for me to state with crystal clarity which of the differing opinions is anchored to reality. However, my intuitive feel is Tiger is correct - the track record of the Co. and the dire financials to date are not indicative of this being on the cusp of explosive growth.
For the sake of LOTM I hope I am wrong since he seems a reasonable chap, but I suspect he may have backed a poor horse with this one. |
Again no answers to the facts of industry actual events waste of time Again here |
Covid proved that ! |
Yep, Miriad won't get any meaningful revenue. Just as they've failed to make any meaningful revenue to date.
Your so called technical research is a bit laughable, I'm afraid. I guess that's MIRI peddling old hat like it's something new and revolutionary and you falling for their piffle lock, stock, and barrel. Anyhow, for your sake I hope you haven't sunk too much into this stock. And whatever you do, don't double down. In the end MIRI is a zero, so you're only increasing your loss. If you're in this stock for big money, I'd recommend paying for an hour's consultation with a good entertainment lawyer, such as those at Harbottle & Lewis. It'll cost you, but it will open your eyes to your naivety.
FWIW, I didn't say I've been out of the business for 10 years; I said I hadn't shot a TVC for that time. I wouldn't say I'm done with TVCs for good, but I'm currently making long form and that's way more interesting.
You'll ignore this advice, of course. But that's your funeral.
"It is far easier to fool a man than it is to convince him he has been fooled." Mark Twain |
So TBTT you don't think Mirriad could get even a measly $200 mill gross $50 mill net 1% of the USA product placement market even though they have existing actual VPP current and historical examples of campaigns with over half of the top 10 US Advertisers even though they are active members of the IAB ANA AIMM all industry regulators who they've worked together with to gey VPP format acceptable like all the banners that are inserted around the frame of TV shows even though they have devised a unique VPP trackable measurement of purchase after VPP viewed by consumers that is the holy grail for Advertisers even though these Advertisers are now funding these show yet you think the actors are in charge
So much more to say here but can't be bothered with someone by their own admission has been out of business for over 10 years logic says shows need pp and VPP |
No, they won't achieve any meaningful revenues - ever. It's a crowded marketplace, and nobody needs or can use what MIRI is offering. The legal problem is insurmountable.
The company know this very well, I'm sure, so it's about time you learnt it, too.
Lots of start-ups fail. The vast majority, in fact. MIRI is just another one. Perhaps a more cynical one than most in the way the CEO makes money on the process and not the result, but still just another one.
And, sorry, I don't follow your posts. Why would I bother? |
Just goes to show how little you know TBTT (at least I now know you not tickboo under another name) you obviously haven't been following what went on after the placing I publicly called out the company/nomad/lawyer for what I thought was a cheap placing for friendly ii's and have got blocked by the CEO at Mirriad for that and other criticism I've made about him perhaps you can answer your own question then answer mine about Mirriad making a dent in a huge market |
Oh boy! This about a company that's degraded its revenue predictions 3 times this year to a miniscule amount.
How many other companies can there be out there where the CEO takes half of all revenues as his salary and PIs still queue up to fund it?!
One question, 2Phevs, and answer honestly. Are you paid by MIRI or their PR people to flood the boards with your drivel? |
The only thing that is ludicrous is that you don't Mirriad will be able to make a decent dent in the USA product placement market which accounted for
Spending
In 2023, product placement spending in the US was over $16.5 billion, which is a 12% increase from 2022. Advertisers are expected to spend $23.5 billion on product placement by 2026.
Mediums
The majority of product placement is on TV, which accounts for about three-quarters of all product placement. Other mediums, like podcasts, are also experimenting with it.
Consumer behavior
39% of consumers are more likely to search online for a product they saw in a film or program than on a TV commercial. 32% of consumers visit a brand's website after seeing product placement, and 34% shop online from a brand after seeing product placement.
Types
The three main types of product placement are verbal, virtual, and audio.
Product placement is a marketing technique where a product or service is featured in some form of media, such as television shows, movies, music videos, social media platforms, or ads for other products.
Above information is freely available on Google search via Statista Shopify and others
Just from a logistics and sustainability view it saves on costs and better for the environment are good reasons and Mirriad uses AI to check for other brands programmaticly to make sure there's no conflict using MSFT brand detection
The Azure AI Vision service detects whether there are brand logos in a given image. If a brand logo is detected, the service returns the brand name, a confidence score, and the coordinates of a bounding box around the logo. The built-in logo database covers popular brands in consumer electronics, clothing, and more.
This released 5 days ago |
Didn’t BLINX try do a similar format i recall with gaming,
Which ultimately failed.
I’d say this is basically bust on virtually every metric..
Time has run out ! |
To give an idea of what is involved in movie / high-end TV series product placement (e.g. Yellowstone), all scenes featuring the product are fully scripted and storyboarded (drawn out) and the lighting, camera moves, actors' expressions and mannerisms and everything else imaginable fully discussed and signed off in advance at a PPM meeting. (These can be endless; I once spent two eight-hour days discussing a 30 second Pampers ad with 8 ad agency and P&G executives). Brands will also check that all other brands featured "match" values with theirs.
This idea of "dropping in" ads in post-production into such a tightly controlled and contracted environment is simply ludicrous.
I can believe that Venezuelan soap operas or music videos for unsigned acts (for instance) are made on a simple buy-out basis and that you can alter them as much as you like in post-production. But nothing made in USA / UK etc. under union rules.
MIRI, if it is anything at all, is extremely niche and small-time. |
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