Minoan Share Discussion Threads

[fireplace22] 10/6/2020 15:00

World of difference between £1M and £7.6M difference between viable investment for PI's or a probable write off.

[waterloo01] 10/6/2020 14:59

fireplace, 'zero interest', not according to the auditors. As for the partner taking the lions share, well that's ultimately probably true, given they will need to invest $300m odd to build, seems fair. Doesn't mean shareholders won't see a return close to the carry value, even though few here think the return will be quite as spectacular.

[microscope] 10/6/2020 14:56

From the accounts to last October, announced last month.

Liabilities
Current liabilities 7566(000)

I didn't suggest they hadn't paid off a part of that since. So I was not wrong. ;)

However, regardless of the number, I was using it to demonstrate the issue I believe the company face.

I continue to anticipate a financial restructuring. Not saying whether it will take a day, a month, a year, but it will happen imho.
They even said they are planning to 'replace' the current financial arrangements. what can be clearer than that?

Time will tell

[fireplace22] 10/6/2020 14:54

How on earth do you reschedule debts of 130% of market capital if your only asset is a claim to a piece of land that has attracted zero interest from any disclosed source in the last ... years?
The entity putting in the cash if indeed there is one, must surely be a development partner taking the lions share of the project for their bucks .

[wi1l] 10/6/2020 14:45

Yes you are way off the mark microscope.

Of the current liabilities:

other creditor £1M

"The other creditor arises from amounts received under the terms of financial joint venture agreements between the Company and certain third parties by which these third parties will receive an initial 5% economic interest in the Project for a total consideration of £1 million."

Accruals and deferred charges £3.7M

These (I am told) relate in the main to provisions where payment will only be made when the work on the project commences.

Trade & Other payables £965K of which presumably on 11th Dec 2019 -the Company has agreed to settle certain liabilities by the issue of 8,494,603 Ordinary Shares of 1p each at 2.75p per share - £234K settled. Leaving £731K o/s

Soc security £45k o/s

Loans £1.8M of which £1.1M related to Silja Investments leaving £0.7M o/s

Since then there was also a placing 11th Dec - The Board is pleased to announce the conclusion of the Firm Subscription for cash referred to in its announcement on the 10 May 2019 as a result of which, the Company has issued a further 7,272,728 ordinary shares of 1p each (“New Ordinary Shares”) at 2.75p per share. £200K settled.

Never mind how much business they have done from Loyalward's management fees.

Leaves at most £1M (of which £700K is on loan ) plus the Silja loan £1.1M to finance IMV NOT £7.5M

[daicaprice] 10/6/2020 14:45

Nice to see the different “takes” on the situation and ponder different scenarios.

DC

[microscope] 10/6/2020 14:30

Nice try Waterloo but then they wouldn't (or at least in my understanding of accounts anyway, shouldn't) be listed as current. They would only roll over with specific agreement from the creditor(s) and thereby if they were not required within this 12 months be listed as non-current.

Be careful of not only hearing what you want to hear.

I believe there will be a financial restructuring. To what extent and when remains uncertain but the sooner the better, and easier things will be for the company. That was indicated in the accounts narrative too imho

PS: They said in the results RNS they were going to "replace" the current financial arrangements. That means restructuring to me

[waterloo01] 10/6/2020 14:13

microscope, interesting analysis but it pre supposes that the current debts are due within 12 months. I think looking back most have been on the books for more than 12 months so are likely to be debts that get paid, once they monitise/break ground, rather than a specific date, and hence get 'rolled' over in the accounts.

[microscope] 10/6/2020 14:09

I think the problem is fairly clear in the accounts (to end of last October of course) Dai.

The 45.8 million, I imagine we all agree (correct me if you think I'm wrong) refers exclusively to CS. Maybe slightly optimistic to list it as current asset as that assumes it could be sold within 12 months, given the complexity. But I suspect we all agree a sale is unlikely.

There are a further 3.74 million of 'non current' (ie can't easily be realized into cash within 12 months).

So far so good.

Here's the rub. There are 235,000 of other current (non CS) assets.

And 7.566 million of current debts (ie needing paying) within 12 months.

If they don't sell any of CS, they need to find over 7 million quid from elsewhere, just for current liquidity.

Where's it coming from? - that'd be a monster amount of funding/dilution.

That's the issue which it seems CE and the others have to cope with at the moment. They could of course 'give away' a chunk of CS as settlement, but how much when they're over a barrel, with the 9th April debt overdue?

Which is why I continue to think they need a financial restructuring pronto.

If they do get through this hole then I agree that the Project would look bright indeed on the numbers.
.
If. That's the risk, and imho the reason for the shareprice until it's sorted.

[waterloo01] 10/6/2020 13:55

Lot's of interesting detail as Wi1l has pointed out, particularly that the auditors have reviewed 3rd party docs that confirm the value.

Get the loan out the way and move forward toward getting a deal done and partners on-board.

[daicaprice] 10/6/2020 13:14

An RNS detailing the terms of the loans to equity needed with a bullish update along those lines needed, be nice if the equity was at a premium to 1.3p but I won’t hold my breath.

DC

[waterloo01] 10/6/2020 13:07

Good spot and encouraging.

[wi1l] 10/6/2020 12:29

And from the auditors report of Minoan Group:

"Reviewing correspondence and other third party documentation in relation to the project to confirm that the expected value of the project is in excess of the costs to date;"

INDEPENDENT EVIDENCE collected by the auditor.

Costs of project to date £45.8M therefore expected value of the project is in excess of £45.8M.

Present Market cap £6.1M share price 1.3p

Expected value of project in excess of £45.8M equates to a share price in excess of 9.75p.

Any investor buying in at these levels must be getting a bargain IMV.

[fireplace22] 10/6/2020 07:57

Last December, note the similarity with the 14th May statement.

'Whilst there can be no guarantee, we expect to be able to confirm and move forward with the most appropriate transaction in the first quarter of the New Year. We will keep the market informed on progress.'

[atlantic57] 10/6/2020 07:50

Outlook

With the impending easing of Lockdown restrictions I expect to provide further updates in the next few months as all our efforts are focused on ensuring that the Group and its stakeholders reap the benefit of the years of hard work that have gone before.

Christopher W Egleton

Chairman

14 May 2020

This is the time table The next few months

Details details details we await the rns

[fireplace22] 10/6/2020 07:38

Yes but it says that the reduction in debt will assist them in their negotiations with hotel operators, JV's etc implying that these negotiations are by no means approaching any sort of conclusion.

[daicaprice] 10/6/2020 07:24

It wouldn’t let me copy and paste either, well worth a read but your highlights sum it up wi1l.

DC

[wi1l] 10/6/2020 07:22

Yes DC there's quite a bit that will be of interest to everyone. I couldn't copy & paste it unfortunately.
The provision of management services is new.
The design & architectural team have produced "new plans".
Increasing share capital whilst at the same time reducing debt - next sentence
This reduction of debt, which I expect to be "substantial"

and on it goes

[daicaprice] 10/6/2020 07:19

Not being an accountant myself but I believe it could be either, my guess would be reduced debt for equity (at what price is the crux of the matter and when will we be told)

DC

[fireplace22] 10/6/2020 07:16

Not being an accountant, does that imply a capital injection or is it laymans terms for debt for equity dai?

[daicaprice] 10/6/2020 07:12

“Increasing our share capital but at the same time reducing debt” maybe caught your eye wi1l?

DC

[wi1l] 10/6/2020 06:53

Both sets of accounts ye31/10/19 can be viewed at Companies House now - The chairman's report on page 2 of Loyalward is worthy of a read.

[microscope] 09/6/2020 17:30

Well no effort was made to renew the options for an adviser at 8p that expired earlier this month.

Either they think it was simply a pointless exercise because they won't reach 8p anytime soon, or it's part of a likely ongoing financial restructuring with something different on the table, who knows.

I would expect it to be the latter as advisers don't like to be left empty handed.

[yorgi] 09/6/2020 16:57

I can't say I would read anything into it, of course I may well be missing something. The only positives I can see at this present time is one that the site is in my view and some others worth several times the present market cap and secondly that Zachary have not foreclosed on Minoan.

If all we get in the next RNS is that the loan has been settled in some way and no progress on the project then that will in my view be exceedingly disappointing to say the least.

[daicaprice] 09/6/2020 16:23

Let’s hope there is good reason wi1l and that they pass the information on.

DC