Micro Focus Share Discussion Threads

[montyhedge] 09/1/2018 11:38

P.e at the moment is 37.49, now forecast what you want in the future, this is now and still way to high.

[montyhedge] 09/1/2018 11:34

Your forecasting not actual. Anyone can say anything.

[ilovefrogs] 09/1/2018 11:30

MH - Strewth, how many times? Fully diluted adj eps up 16% to c103.87 ($1.0387) for first 6 months. $2.10 remains realistic for the full year. This is equiv to £1.60, so a PE of 14. Not only am I not deluded, I can actually read. What's your excuse?

[montyhedge] 09/1/2018 11:19

ilovefrogs
Your calculations are completely wrong, p.e 14 are you deluded, look at the numbers the company reported yesterday.

[montyhedge] 09/1/2018 10:43

Will have to see what happens, market giving Micro benefit of the doubt for now.

[ugandalad] 09/1/2018 10:26

Frogs absolutely it’s the Soap end of the investment industry. I’m still betting that like my vintage port MCRO has legs and will be a long runner.

[ilovefrogs] 09/1/2018 10:06

Ha - well I'm pretty sure that these Boards exist to provide a forum for 'daily chatter' ;-). I agree with your sentiments though....

[phillis] 09/1/2018 09:51

frogs
Management are doing what they have done best
A big bite to chew but a lot of fat to be got rid of

Best to disregard daily chatter - it is irrelevant and for the most part useless

[ilovefrogs] 09/1/2018 09:21

MH - it is NOT on a PE of 40x - this has been pointed out to you before on this Board and others. The key EPS figure is the adjusted one (not statutory), and with forecasts currently for this year at $2.1, equivalent to ~£1.60, hopefully you can understand that the PE is~14x.

Loosemore still in charge, and I have faith in his approach. The MCRO story has always been ,and still is, about margin expansion. Once you've pushed that in the existing business, you then seek to bolt on acquisitions in similar companies with lower margin and bring them up. HPE is simply the most recent example (albeit the largest) of a long line of these.

[sogoesit] 09/1/2018 09:06

Monty, failing any other measure now I give it a 5% yield for the risk. That makes £25 tops fair value for me. Short term I don’t know. It’s probably bottomed yesterday for a while.

Frogs, your point is accepted. I’ve been in this stock since 2009. My point was I DID trust management but “management221; has now clearly changed. This is my first opportunity to evaluate the new management. If you’re saying you knew Hsu was good all well and fair but, guessing, I think he came as part of “the deal”. There was a sell-off a while back on comment about Hsu and his tendency to want to re-structure through M&A thus losing the focus on margin expansion. This appears to have come to pass and noticeable by the way Loosemore has put MCRO folks into positions that control that M&A process.

[montyhedge] 09/1/2018 09:00

Revenue down, eps down, high p.e 40 you better trust the management to get margins up, I have my doubts until I see it in the figures. Hope is not an investment strategy. Dividend up that's good news.

[ilovefrogs] 09/1/2018 08:48

You either trust this management , or you don't. They've only had HPE for 2 months FFS - way too early to draw some of the conclusions above. Having been invested here for 8 years, I think I understand and know this Company/management pretty well. Sure there's implementation risk, but that's kind of the point - they needed an acquisition of sufficient size, and frankly, with considerable potential to be better managed than it was previously, to really move the dial. We have both here. As margins in HPE rise towards legacy business, and debt (and interest) reduce through considerable free cash flow, EPS should grow substantially. Stock only on 14x this year which makes it a buy in my book (and I was yesterday). Just my view of course.

[losses] 09/1/2018 07:47

Interim dividend increased by 16.4% to 34.60 cents per share (2016: 29.73 cents per share) in line with dividend policy of full year dividend being twice covered by adjusted earnings.

[losses] 08/1/2018 23:02

Revised down from £30 to £24 now

[montyhedge] 08/1/2018 22:16

Sogoesit any revised priced target for you forget 2800p, I say 1755p.

[sogoesit] 08/1/2018 19:36

The figures were "confusing"?
I think you're right but who's to blame for confusion? Management, no?
Hsu was the wrong choice for CEO and it now looks like HPS is canibalising MCRO. That's not good, in my book.
Furthermore we are now about to embark on what seems to be a never-ending treadmill of M&A. What chance we can tell whether this is going to deliver if management cannot even be clear?
All I can say is pray for a gap-fill... Lol!

[montyhedge] 08/1/2018 16:37

Eps decreased.

[enami] 08/1/2018 16:37

A simple ABC correction target for 1.618 Fib A & C Waves is 2060 which would put the share price at the same level as the start point of the Wave in the runup to the merger.

I am not a holder here, luckily sold out close to the top. I read the figures and found them confusing and felt uneasy at the way they had been presented.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[ilovefrogs] 08/1/2018 16:35

High PE ??? What garbage. It's on about 14x this years' earnings (and we are almost two-thirds through). Since when does this qualify as 'high' - it's actually on a discount to the overall market!!

[losses] 08/1/2018 16:15

So heading for 1975??

[montyhedge] 08/1/2018 14:18

You can't have any disappointments when a share as a high p.e you get hammered.

Just seen the figures three words for me, very very disappointing.

[montyhedge] 08/1/2018 13:38

Hi guys just finished golf, wow I said up 100p or down 100p. Did not expect that 1975p target for me.

[losses] 08/1/2018 11:45

Heck of a drop there monty!!

[phillis] 08/1/2018 08:54

as per forecast
buy for divi

[sogoesit] 08/1/2018 08:44

18 month “year” will give us three dividends.
Forward Dividend looks like about 150p including the 25p in February.
Otherwise market seems worried by revenue drop as old MCRO appears to have been cannibalised by HPE.
Maybe we will return to being an “income” stock again although management changes signal otherwise.