Micro Focus Share Discussion Threads

[losses] 22/11/2017 06:55

Meg Whitman took over one of Silicon Valley's most storied tech companies after a disastrous tenure by the previous chief executive, promising a turnaround within five years.She will leave a little more than six years later, having torn the Hewlett-Packard puzzle into several pieces but accomplishing little else beyond paying off investors and laying off employees. Her successor at the largest chunk of the storied HP, Antonio Neri, will be left to convince investors that the turnaround will eventually take place.

[montyhedge] 21/11/2017 12:49

HP report after the close on the street tonight, interesting.

[sogoesit] 20/11/2017 14:16

Well, I don’t think you’re buying enough. This would be over £28 by now if you were serious ;-)!
Lol

[silverfern] 17/11/2017 07:28

I keep buying more, but it cannot just be me!

[ringer12] 16/11/2017 16:49

SP hits 2700P! ...2800P by Xmas with a bit more for January 5th!

It seems a long time since the HP merger but hopefully it's all going according to plan.

[kuss1] 16/11/2017 12:14

Yes, it's what mcro do. Next leg up here it would seem. £30 by Jan results.

[ilovefrogs] 10/11/2017 09:05

It's not that HP were so bad, its that MCRO are so good at this - genuinely without peer in this industry.

[montyhedge] 10/11/2017 07:35

Ok your assuming they can get margins up to 45% that's asking a lot. We're HP manage to so bad they could not do it then?

[kuss1] 04/11/2017 03:14

Not sure I agree about the tech assessment. The stock market is just a cash market. Once you understand that everything becomes much easier. Mcro is just taking HP's margins from around 24% to some 40% so cash is going to double on revenue of $3 billion. And that cash will recur for years with shareholders getting 25% of it. There is also no new software out there. That's a fallacy. The tech here is just an increase in dominance of old stuff. That's the beauty of micro. If anything they are going to squeeze more cash out of the business. Lots more. But they are also innovators, don't forget that. So we're looking at 45% of 4.5 billion in revenue. Call it $2 billion in profit. Market cap $14 billion or so (sorry can't do the exact maths at this time). So generation of cash around 6 or 7 paying 25% of that back to shareholders. No wonder the chairman was buying millions of these at £24. And the chart looks set to explode upwards...

[sogoesit] 01/11/2017 19:20

Understood frogs about your estimates, thanks.
However, MF thinks differently about future reporting dates.
I quote from 4 September AGM Statement, FYI:

"HPE will announce its Q3 results on 5 September 2017, including HPE Software results for the three months ended 31 July 2017. Micro Focus is holding a Capital Markets Day on 7 September 2017 and will announce its Interim Results for the six months to 31 October 2017 on 8 January 2018. These Interim Results will include only 2 months trading of HPE Software. Micro Focus will now change its reporting reference date to 31 October and will report an 18 month financial period to 31 October 2018."

[ilovefrogs] 01/11/2017 17:16

MCRO shouldn't be thought of as a traditional tech Company, which is usually characterized by strong top line growth. MF are completely the opposite in that topline growth is if anything falling, but operating and FCF margins are the key.

MCRO's reporting year is April to April, which is why my target is for spring based on full year 2018 (ie 12 months to April 2018) figs.

[sogoesit] 01/11/2017 16:18

Sure; on the TA side I'm looking for £28 sharpish so, next year, upto £40 is "optimistic reasonable" imv.
Currently this is 13-1/2% of my portfolio.

[kuss1] 01/11/2017 16:15

Yes the £40 is assuming some unknown's but it's not out of the question of Micro deliver. Even 20x earnings is quite cheap in this market for a tech company.

[sogoesit] 01/11/2017 16:13

Since the merger announcement my figures have been about £30/£31.
I think, live frog, you were saying your £32 is priced at 20x. Mine is priced at 17x and Forex of $1.30 per gbp.
At 20x under the same scenario I get £35.50. Dropping forex 1 cent adds £0.25 to the share price

Mine is to Full Year 2018 so a bit later than your Spring and based on 47% margin for the MCRO business and 45% margin for the HPE business.

[ilovefrogs] 01/11/2017 16:05

I'm predicting £32 by spring 2018. £40 feels more like an end 2018 thing, and only if the 45% margins actually look feasible by the time we get there.

[kuss1] 01/11/2017 15:50

Market just buying the cash ... should go significantly higher for a tech stock with the injection of revenue from HP. Micro seem to be able to get margins higher with all their takeovers, so I would expect the same from HP. So HP margins at 45% coming soon. Wouldn't surprise me to see the share price pushing £40 this year if so.

[enami] 01/11/2017 14:50

Interesting chart position.
SP matches the intraday ATH reached before the big fall at the start of May.

Trend line target at 2695. Next upside Fib target at 2869.
Had a small profit slice here just in case it turns out to be a double top.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[enami] 01/11/2017 14:50

Interesting chart position.
SP matches the intraday ATH reached before the big fall at the start of May.

Trend line target at 2695. Next upside Fib target at 2869.
Had a small profit slice here just in case it turns out to be a double top.

[ilovefrogs] 30/10/2017 12:54

Someone here posted - 'Stocks don't drift up' - ha!! Well I think drifting up is actually a very fine description of what this stock has done since then. Based on the HPE figs in September, I now think MCRO will earn £1.60 per share in yr to April 2018, and I believe a PE of 20x by then is justifiable, so my 6 month target is £32. I've been in this stock since 2010 having bought in at 3.60 and added more at 2.80 - what a ride - (and I don't think it's finished yet)!

[sogoesit] 26/10/2017 13:38

I think technical analysis says the break-out from a head&shoulders should be about the difference between the top of the head and the shoulder initially... I make that to 2775/2800.
Good luck!

[kuss1] 26/10/2017 11:21

Nice break after that consolidation period. Should go much higher from here...

[ringer12] 26/10/2017 10:58

Perhaps the name should be changed to Macrofocus. Onward and upward is the trend!

[montyhedge] 25/10/2017 17:29

SogoesitThey have a robot division? 8 bagger Blue Prism comes to mind. Also Space tech,must be the future.

[montyhedge] 25/10/2017 12:42

Sogoesit
Think I may have found the next 10 bagger, bought some Scisys plc, won a very nice space contract yesterday. The exciting thing for me is market cap £35m. Let me know what you think?