Micro Focus Share Discussion Threads

[planit2] 04/2/2021 10:28

Interesting conversation above.

I like to always be aware of what my actions are actually doing and this differentiation is very important:

If you own shares then on average you win - there is cash generation as you are investing in a business to make money

If you place a bet (or derivatives etc) then it is a zero sum game, if you add the gains and losses of all parties together you get zero.

[scepticalinvestor] 04/2/2021 08:51

Imo punters taking positions in advance of Tues.How can this not be gambling? ;)

[hsdeo] 04/2/2021 08:24

Need a good head of steam today and tomorrow. I think we should be sitting on 475 by end of week.

[stoxx67] 04/2/2021 07:17

its all interesting debate amongst a group willing to debate, excellent.

my opinion is just that , an opinion.

back to Microfocus, what are the odds we break £5 prior to results day ;)

[purchaseatthetop] 04/2/2021 06:47

stoxx.....good points. Now, margin dealing on shares. Is that more gambling as you are leveraging your "bet" and can lose the lot (and make many times more). I fully agree that total loss on normal investing is very rare (but you only have to look at SYME to see it happens) but margins is a different game. I think that though researched and calculated the higher chance of total loss of money moves it along the investment-gambling continuum towards gambling.

I must admit I did not expect to be having this conversation! Great fun.

[stoxx67] 04/2/2021 06:29

me neither PAT, quite how one could define horse gambling as a manged risk is beyond me, you can place a stop loss or exit point on markets whilst the market is open, this is strategy, this is risk management, can you do this once a horse race has started?

never had the interest in gambling on horses, dogs or anything for that matter... its a good day out for a social event for food , drinks etc.. however risking funds...... no !!!

as i stated that is my perception of gambling, ... a TOTAL LOSS if the event, occurrence or direction of your wager does not come to pass, others are, of course, entitled and welcome to their opinion

the stock market IS NOT gambling,again, to my mind, you can not define it as such, whereas horse racing, dogs, casino, fruit machines (all games of chance) most definitely is

[purchaseatthetop] 04/2/2021 06:10

The phrase "gambling" means a million different things to different people depending on our heuristics. I have never bet on the horses, been to bingo, get no thrill out of random events (though many claim the horses is managed risk) therefore I have a view that way. I go to a casino with friends (or used to before recent events) and enjoyed losing all my money. Now that is gambling.

So let us agree. We all do the same thing but call it different names. I LIKE to think I am ahead of the curve. Maybe I am just lucky.

I like the idea of the "IG CAPM Spread Index". Do you think it might catch on?
PATT

[rochdae] 03/2/2021 21:40

I never really liked the CAPM model. It's a standard I accept but it predictions sometimes come out at odds with reality.

There is no such thing as risk free. Everything has risk associated with it. Does the CAPM model predict Argentine bonds?

I agree you may be referring to managed risk, but it's still a risk and where there is risk there are odds. That's why IG index platform is called spread betting. It's not called the CAPM platform.

When you say it's not gambling and the in stock market you very rarely lose money, you should have had a word with those stock brokers throwing themselves to death in the 1920's.

Buffet lost big time on many companies. But he was a first mover and got billions so he could then start buying companies, but his funds haven't outperformed tracker indexes in recent years.

There are no gurus, no magic models, the stock market is a huge casino imo.

But that's not to say you can't do well. But it's very difficult which is why most actually lose.

But it's the same with companies. It's like saying setting up a company isn't a gamble. Of course it is. 90% of the ftse 250 didn't exist 20 years ago.

I also think not only is the market a risk but you need to like calculating the odds to be successful. But that's another issue.

[purchaseatthetop] 03/2/2021 21:05

rochdae.....it is the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) that defines the return you need from an investment. We have the risk free return (govt bonds) and then you reflect the risk beta depending on the level of risk you understand in the company. The greater the risk the higher the return you need.
That is where it is not gambling. You do SWOT and other analysis to fully understand what it is facing.
You have essentially done that. You are not gambling. You are calculating. Well done.

[phillis] 03/2/2021 20:40

Dr Knowledge
Here is your explanation

“Brokerage firms like Robinhood need to send cash every day to the Depository Trust Company to make sure there’s enough collateral backing up customer trades in the two days it takes them to settle. That formula is based on volatility among other factors, which picked up last week as stocks like GameStop shot up 400%, and rookie traders were deploying leverage.

The $3 billion bill

The amount Robinhood was expected to post for names like GameStop and AMC increased tenfold, the company said in a blogpost. Robinhood’s operations team woke up to a request at 3:30 a.m. PT on Thursday from the National Securities Clearing Corp, the third party where it reports the collateral, CEO Tenev told Elon Musk in a conversation on the audio chat app, Clubhouse. The total amount Robinhood needed to post came in at $3 billion, according to Tenev.”

Maybe you should think about changing your avatar which is v misleading

It’s always a conspiracy to the unwashed isn’t it?

[stoxx67] 03/2/2021 18:08

nothing like horse racing or dog racing..

you bet on that you lose your stake if the event does not go the way of your wager.

stock markets you very rarely lose everything , you may lose a percentage but not all.
so not gambling, its management of risk and whether the individual is capable of the same.

just my opinion

[purchaseatthetop] 03/2/2021 18:08

rochdae....I would hate to invest if I thought it was gambling. I do an enormous amount of research and try to find undervalued companies that are out of fashion but that have strong brand and a way back usually with new excellent leadership.

Except for buying DMTR because the mad scientist CEO wants to meet aliens. But that is another story.

I use information from other investors here (thanks to Parob for leading me to ITX when it was 2p and `I try to help other persons here) but then I do my work. I pride myself in hitting near the bottom of the price curve (on NEX at 125p, MCRO 220p, ITX 2p, ALG 45p, SAGA 250p, BMN 12p) and then accumulating.

So IMO not gambling at all. Not remotely. Buffet was a genius because he understood that less is more. Buy on value, keep for a long time. I am no Buffet but I am consistent in achieving returns that prove it is not gambling.

Anyway...to each their own and good luck with all your investments. We all need some luck!

[dr knowledge] 03/2/2021 17:42

Dont think Warren Buffet took a single gamble in his rather illuminous trading career. ;-)

[rochdae] 03/2/2021 17:15

I disagree purchase...., it's not a coin toss for sure, but it's a bet nonetheless. Bit like horse racing rather than dog racing perhaps. The good gamblers they call great investors. The political gamblers visionaries ... It's all the same game to me. Down to odds and risk.

[purchaseatthetop] 03/2/2021 16:53

Rochdae....it is an informed gamble. The gamble being incomplete knowledge and random events. But it is not gambling.

[boozey] 03/2/2021 16:51

3 full trading days until results. Would be great to keep the momentum ahead of the 9th.

[scepticalinvestor] 03/2/2021 16:31

crikey fantastic mid week turnaround. feel for those who sold during the monday treeshake

[purchaseatthetop] 03/2/2021 15:31

Thanks all. I do not take it personally. I like to remind investors when the morons call it wrong. It helps them remember that when they make a value share decision and it goes against them even a small amount, that their decision should not change unless the facts change. Not opinions of others with motives.

[martinfrench] 03/2/2021 15:26

this against the backdrop of slight down ftse day and us tech 100 day, impressive

[stoxx67] 03/2/2021 15:15

once break £5 , target £8 , in due course

a dividend , even token, would get us well on the way !!

[smurfy2001] 03/2/2021 15:00

500p attack in motion.
A dividend announcement would be very welcome.

[martinfrench] 03/2/2021 14:57

just needs to close above 445 to have a bit of blue sky tomorrow and next few days, not that it would anyway leading up to results

[martinfrench] 03/2/2021 14:36

dont take it personally purchase, the idiot has disappeared, says it all

[scepticalinvestor] 03/2/2021 14:35

hence there is no sign of 12toes