Micro Focus Share Discussion Threads

[purchaseatthetop] 03/2/2021 13:57

Yesterday at 07.36 I posted this message here:

"very good recovery in USA last night. Expect us to recover most of the Monday losses today. Maybe go above. This share is a traders dream. Nightmare for nervous PI's but if you have been in MCRO for a while you simply hit the snooze button".

12toes responded:

""Expect us to recover most of the Monday losses today.”
You haven’t got a clue pal, you just make it up"

I didn't make it up. We have recovered Monday losses. Now crawl off 12toes you haven't got a clue.
That feels GOOOOOODDDDDD!!!

[rochdae] 03/2/2021 11:05

mcro always give predictions on the coming year's expected revenue range, so that will be new info. I agree margins may have to wait till the next trading update, but with new management there may be a temptation to indicate a likely range going forward. Also, perhaps a comment on cost reductions due to Covid as an explanation of the improved margins.

But the main thing is more bullish language on the turnaround and its trajectory.

I think there will be quite a bit more info. in general as witnessed in the last trading statement which was about 4 times longer than usual.

Roch

[purchaseatthetop] 03/2/2021 11:01

I think we will get a trading update as well as the 20 financials. More than last year. Probably you are right but lets see,

[dollars down] 03/2/2021 10:37

Not sure what you are thinking for next week. We where given the info in the trade update in november. Only if the numbers are screwed from the audits, write downs or divi - i dont think there is much else that will differ to what we already know.

I did check the RNS from November & the one announcing when the results are due - both say it covers the exact same period as the period which will be reported on next week.

[planit2] 03/2/2021 10:25

@purchaseatthetop

I doubt we are going to get an update on the margin. We might get some trading information or some sales figures if we are really lucky.

If we are lucky there will be no further write-down on the assets, we might get a bit of an idea on current trading conditions and the turnaround plan and we might get some information on whether dividends are going to be reinstated.

[gerardp] 03/2/2021 09:06

Market cap divided by shares in issue gives an improved 2300p (7.6b / 330m)

[purchaseatthetop] 03/2/2021 08:29

Lets look at the basics:

IF, and I repeat IF the 9/2/21 update shows that the fall in revenues is slowing and the gross margin rises another 2% (like last 1/4), and $350m of debt is paid off then there will be a massive rerate.
EBITDA will be around $1.2b
Multiple valuation of around 12 times = $14.4b
Less debt of around $4b = Share value of $10.40b
Exchange at 1.37 = £7.6b
Present MCap = £1.45b
Therefore full value share price = 430p*7.6/1.45 = 2250p
Fag packet, ball park, but shows where we are heading IF the transformation is on track.

IMO only and never believe a word I write.

[warranty] 02/2/2021 22:38

Wonder if Jeff Bezos stepping down as CEO of Amazon and their head of web services taking over will be good for MCRO? They’ve already stated they see their Cloud side would see massive growth over the next few years and hopefully Microfocus will be part of that.

[currencytrader1] 02/2/2021 20:54

Need to push this up to 450p again for another profit take.
Its very well orchestrated.
The main disappointing thing about this is you will need to sell at 550p if there's good results, before shorts get hold of it again.

[purchaseatthetop] 02/2/2021 20:11

MCRO in the USA is steadily rising post UK close of play. Up nearly 2% since 16.30. Maybe a strong start tomorrow.

[scepticalinvestor] 02/2/2021 16:31

extremely low volume again today - less than 1m before UT

[rochdae] 02/2/2021 14:30

The ceo has already talked about the 3 year transformation plan and the desire to accelerate this. It would be very odd indeed in the results to say the transformation has reversed. So I expect the forward statement to be bullish.

And we still don't know the full effect of the covid situation on the move to digitalisation .... only that it can only have accelerated greatly and had a major impact on costs ..

[purchaseatthetop] 02/2/2021 13:43

12toes...your message to me around 8am today was:

“Expect us to recover most of the Monday losses today.”

You haven’t got a clue pal, you just make it up

Go on....admit it. I know my MCRO.

[scepticalinvestor] 02/2/2021 13:22

Agree. The mkt is slowly starting to realise that the true value is at least 3x the current mkt cap

[purchaseatthetop] 02/2/2021 13:10

sceptical....I am very much looking forward to 9/2 and the IMO excellent results and direction of travel that will be revealed. All the right conditions are there especially given the progress MCRO made in the previous quarter and the good news since.
Debt reduced, drop in revenue slowed considerably, margins higher, maybe small dividend....then WHOOSH!!!

[scepticalinvestor] 02/2/2021 13:07

Yes but must continue to reduce debt

[montyhedge] 02/2/2021 13:03

Just want a token dividend, to get the income funds back who have shunned Micro.

[scepticalinvestor] 02/2/2021 12:59

Good man. Turn the other cheek etc etc

[purchaseatthetop] 02/2/2021 12:58

Well.....we are well on our way to reclaiming Mondays losses. Something I suggested might happen but was then told I did not have a clue.
I am far too well brought up (and far from caring what anybody thinks) but nah....nah...nee.....nah.....nah.

[scepticalinvestor] 02/2/2021 12:56

That is the question....