Mereo Biopharma Share Discussion Threads

[momentos] 26/2/2007 08:33

Morning all.

Off again!

[remynapoleon] 25/2/2007 17:04

Thanks Perudo.

remynapoleon

[perudo] 24/2/2007 13:47

remynapoleon, I left there over 3 years ago but still have a couple of contacts. I'll research and find out if they plan to, or still do have any dealings with mph. regards perudo

[nardelli] 24/2/2007 00:43

seems you all forgot the childrens outlet, going much better than expected if I remember correctly. anyway that dose not matter, untill mph show's what it can do after YSL it will trade at a discount, if it take's off it will be after june when ysl is out of the system,

[wbjunior] 23/2/2007 15:24

Sure your right Lex and thanks for the information regarding other o/t company's...........wbj

Matt13 dont forget to contact me today if things pan out as expected, good to hear everything is ok with you.

[lex1000] 23/2/2007 15:16

wbj,have always been open in my posting including comparisons and alternatives.On reflection:Change of strategy was an excellent one & still is.There is a but! By not buying back MPH have wasted years of experience,research & knowledge of Marchpole as a company.Biggest miss experience rise back to fair value with fellow holders.You will also have seen other o/t has dropped back on Shares recommending banking profits on half after doubling from their 75p suggested buy price.The secret of growth and income shares is to hold for true fairer value & more profitable returns.There is always a case for top slicing.In recent family discussions was considered but opportunity missed & has passed.All three shares offer buying opportunities & should go on to trade 150p-175p; 175p-200p; 200p+ imho.btw MPH would need bid of 161p to match.regards.lex ;o)

[wbjunior] 23/2/2007 15:15

Marben100 have to agree short term, but the discounted cashflow approach entails me making two assumptions, one the discount rate and two the projected growth both of which are subjective and then looking at the NPV/IRR to decide the most favourable investment. Because the timescale I use is 10 years allot can change thats why I say as long as the company keeps its margins and growth inline with my forecast I am happy to stay on board. As you can see the margin of error if buying today at £1.48 and target of £2.96 allows for %growth error in assumptions. I have used 12% but run it at 10% , 8% and 6% and remain happy to hold with as you say £2 short term looking to happen soon. Regards Food for thought.....wbj

PS Just my own thoughts DYOR and good luck

[marben100] 23/2/2007 14:53

I think a more reasonable short/medium term target is nearer £2, given the risks.

Quite agree. I'd be top-slicing around that level, in the absence of further news. I'm just saying that a £3 price is not ridiculous.

On the results... cash/debt and the outlook statement will be the most important factors for me, this time. The interims will be the crucial ones: the first results without YSL (and with Greenmark).

Finals are expected late June, interims November. We're hoping for further good news before the finals, though :0).

Regards,

Mark

[wbjunior] 23/2/2007 14:50

Lex just got back in from sons house, been there decorating its taking a longer time than I thought. I see your other holding has dropped a few pence but is pulling back now, no worries there hopefully
PS Finished my DCF analyse of MPH and would say there is scope for a doubling of the price from here, incase you want to consider top slicing....................lol..................Regards wbj

[lex1000] 23/2/2007 13:02

A big plus is that MPH have successfully built on diversity of brands i.e.no longer reliant on one.Most will be aware the importance of branding.Evidence of international/global strategy and excellent UK aquisition. Simple logic:-If MPH have 'more than' replaced YSL indicative of share price north of 185p.imho.

wbj,o/t looking a bit pale against MPH.Currently need the 19p advantage.lol.

[momentos] 23/2/2007 10:56

We all know this years results will be a bumper year due to the double-your-money YSL sellthrough.

The most important things to me are:

1. Moda turnover / margins at least as good as at takeover (USD20m)- This should be visible in the Geographical split.

2. Further forward movement for JCC. (again partially visible in Geog. split)

3. Contribution / plans for Hommebody. ( hard to determine)

4. Ungaro progress on Launch ( should deliver Spring/Summer this Quarter). This may be difficult to see as UK figs will include YSL.

5. Boateng ..... actually no, who cares?

So, it will all depend how open they want to be on the breakdown between the various brands. We may have to wait for November interims (first with absolutely no YSL) for full clarity. The Nov interims should also give Greenmark information.

[roughjustice] 23/2/2007 10:52

They were the last available forecast, thus the reason why I called out the date and used the phrase this was due to drop.

I think a more reasonable short/medium term target is nearer £2, given the risks.

[jitters3] 23/2/2007 10:50

is date set for results only bought in last week

[marben100] 23/2/2007 10:42

Plus your figures are a bit misleading, since they are based on interims, the least crucial part of the year.

Ted Baker Full Year Forecast 32p
Marchpole Full Year Forecast 21p based on Hardman 24th Nov

Additionally with the end of YSl this was due to drop to 15p. Meaning the EPS of Ted Baker is scheduled to be double Marchpole.

...but these MPH figures are now out of date. Hardman have said in their Feb update that they will not update their forecasts untils the acquisition has been approved. Latest figures from Shore and KBC, which have been updated show an '08 EPS > 21p, rather than 15p. Whilst I'd agree that the P/E should be at a discount relative to Ted Baker's a forward P/E of 6.8 vs 18.0 (historic 11.3 vs 21.4) seems somewhat overdone. It seems to me that there is considerable scope for a re-rating and hence share price rise (whilst £6 might be a bit of stretch £3 does not strike me as impossible), as long as results are in-line with or better than forecasts.

We'll have to wait until the results to know how gearing will really look: strong cashflow is likely in H2 for MPH. On the brand front, I don't think Ungaro, JCC, Rossignol & Homebody (amongst others) are too shabby against Ted Baker.

Regards,

Mark

[roughjustice] 23/2/2007 10:19

Don't get me wrong. I am a Marchpole shareholder who joined at 114p a share because I think there is excellent turnaround potential and am excited by the current rise, however these shares aren't likely to run ahead of themselves.

[momentos] 23/2/2007 10:05

AU is usually a sets stock during opening / closing auction (I think!) XD= ex dividend.

[lomaximus] 23/2/2007 08:01

i know this is a little off topic but what do the flags AU and XD mean??
Thanks

[momentos] 23/2/2007 07:22

All opinions welcome here - rough justice made a valid point!

[remynapoleon] 23/2/2007 01:47

Perudo

Do you know if Moss Bros are now buying/thinking of buying large quantities of Ungaro suits ?

remynapoleon

And welcome on board by the way.

[daverw] 22/2/2007 23:32

wbj,
A couple of wind up merchants I suspect.
PS Marchpole & Fridays, Have a good day tomorrow.
regards

[wbjunior] 22/2/2007 23:23

All opinions welcome here - rough justice made a point!..........................................wbj

[foxking] 22/2/2007 22:07

Rough,

'Food for thought ' or 'Food for short' ??