Mereo Biopharma Share Discussion Threads

[momentos] 23/11/2006 12:36

click on bear once to set, once to hit.

[momentos] 23/11/2006 12:33

Pingu - so the position now is

1. You are unsure you took the right decision.

2. You are trying to justify to yourself that you took the right decision by finding every single negative you can.

Just give up and buy back in, you know you want to!

[pingi] 23/11/2006 12:29

jason8466 - 23 Nov'06 - 12:11 - 2189 of 2190
I have noted that over the last few days(since the dodgy rns) that pingi has posted negative comment

Close... but no cigar.





...and that's before I started looking at Moda in detail and before said dodgy RNS.

[cr4zyness] 23/11/2006 12:17

Pingu's family reunion!!



What bottle are you holding, it wasnt to damper the barbecue was it?????

[momentos] 23/11/2006 12:14

Pingu's IG Markets short from Monday AM is looking a little ropey, and he cant even close it online!!

[momentos] 23/11/2006 12:12

FFS.

1. Marchpole have 115 Staff not 1!

2. They seem to have done very well when Greg Tufnell was in charge.

3. Dont think Morris does the design work.

4. Last IC tip ("Good Value") had zero effect on the price.

5. The IC commentary this time seems to contain no recommendation.

6. If you look into Marchpole's history YSL cannot be called "easy money".

7. Have a look at PPR / Gucci history as well and you will see how "easy money YSL is, and the hundreds of millions the brand has lost on apparel.

[jason8466] 23/11/2006 12:11

I have noted that over the last few days(since the dodgy rns) that pingi has posted negative comment in reply to anything positive from posters and now the prospective ic share mag. These reaction in pingi's post interest me as to why a person who states that they have sold out of MPH should bother to post at all.

Yes we are all entitled to our opinion but that is usually formed from a position. Mnnn so what position would Pingi be coming from?

I have posted negative comment about the RNS but as a holder i feel that is acceptable.

And the RNS does not detract from a great set of results.

The fact that I continue to hold is a statement in itself.

Momentos thankyou for your research as usual its very informative.

I am sure you will NEED tp reply PINGI.

[pingi] 23/11/2006 12:09

momentos - 23 Nov'06 - 11:31 - 2184 of 2187
Pingi, I think you are getting confused between the numbers you see for purchase and the numbers from Moda they have to crunch down to the balance sheet.

If it is a choice between the numbers I see in headline grabbing RNS's / PR's and those I see going through audited statements... I will trade the former and trust the latter.

Well... most of the time :)

[pingi] 23/11/2006 12:04

momentos - 23 Nov'06 - 11:43 - 2185 of 2186
Hope that satisfies you Pingu, next time DYOR!!!

I have... and here is a little more of it.

From 2006 AR:

Total consideration satisfied by:
Cash ---------------------------------- 182
Directly attributable costs ----------- 264

Total consideration ------------------- 446

In the notes...
"The consideration included above represents the directors' expectation of the final purchase price and includes an anticipated recovery of £408,000 in relation to cash paid to date."

So cash paid to date = 182+408 = £590k
Say, 1.7 $XR
So cash paid to date = $1003k
Which agrees with the $1m initial consideration in the acq. RNS.

So there is a balance sheet debtor for £408k... which if they can't recover it will hit the P&L a/c.

But I'm less interested in that than the absence of $4.5m earnout liability.

If MPH don't have to pay it then fine... but if they recover £408k of cash paid to date... the total consideration will be £182k before any final accounts adjustments which will be in the order of thousands not millions.
Moda = £182k acqu. !!!

[Edit] 182k in place of 38k.

A slightly different spin to the $5.5m acq. that replaces a large part of the lost YSL business.

Hence my conclusion it is a bombed out business MPH picked up and is pumping cash in to revive it.

:)

[0o0] 23/11/2006 11:59

Pingi

I do think you have a very valid point. The Hardman report lists MM both as an asset and a liability in that his valuable relationships with customers and suppliers would end immediately if he stepped under a number 11 bus. Surely the same applies to the moda business model and the top man departing.

I get a feeling if today's tip in the IC can not push the share price above the recent high then it is going to be a drift down to support levels again waiting for details of the coming acquisition.

Also don't forget the YSL licencing operation held little risk for Marchpole and was "easy money", buying companies and going the DIY route is both risky and difficult. This is a radical departure from the original MPH business model.

So money off the table again for me if the share price stalls here.

[momentos] 23/11/2006 11:43

Just one more snore bore.....

Tom Wallis has a profile online .

His previous jonb is mentioned as being with Covarra Group Fashion Inc. By coincidence, this firm shows an address of 11 West 42nd Street, New York which is THE SAME AS MODA!!

Funnily enough the parent of Covarro, Grupo Covarra seems to have in May 2005. It seems to have been involved in the at some stage, as a deal with another co Wallis was in, GFT.

This all seems to suggest that Moda America was either part of or spun out of Grupo Covarra.

If it was part of Covarra, this could explain the delays in purchase and te reduced price (due to administration). Any argument over price would only then seem to be with the Administrators (ie LOW RISK).

Hope that satisfies you Pingu, next time DYOR!!!

[momentos] 23/11/2006 11:31

It is boring. Yes. Last comment.

Just to confirm, the initial indicate purchase price was $5.5m. They mentioned in 2006 AR a potential saving of $800k (£400k). Whether they have paid this yet or not I don't give a flying flock.

Pingi, I think you are getting confused between the numbers you see for purchase and the numbers from Moda they have to crunch down to the balance sheet.

Moda wasn't a one man show, neither is Marchpole.

[wbjunior] 23/11/2006 11:27

Agree Cr4zyness thanks for the IC article. I asked my little grandson how ducks went he said quack quack, "good boy I said, now how do mummies go", he replied Moan Moan, reminds me of some of the posters on here................lol...wbj
Off for swim back around 1

[cr4zyness] 23/11/2006 11:17

This is getting boring, see you all later

[pingi] 23/11/2006 11:14

momentos - 23 Nov'06 - 11:01 - 2179 of 2180
"Try looking at Moda differently."
How did they get it for next to nothing?
USD5.5m is not nothing!

-They did not pay $5.5m and will not be paying anywhere near that.

What did they pay?
Possibly USD5m, less 800k (GBP400k equiv.)

-No they didn't.

What did they get?
Er, a borderline profitable company sourcing and distributing $20m of Ungaro Menswear in the US. An angle into US retailers for other brands. Hands on the Ungaro Homme brand for the UK. A company whose cost base they could substantially reduce by using their own existing product design, sourcing and admin functions.

-No... the one undeniable asset is their existing customer relationships.

What remains?
No idea what you mean! Settlement of the final purchase price. If thats what you mean!

-With the top man gone what remains of that one undeniable asset?

[pingi] 23/11/2006 11:08

momentos - 23 Nov'06 - 10:55 - 2178 of 2178
Who gives a toss about a potential little argument over 400k on the purchase of Moda, which there is no indication of turning legal? Payment was only 2 months over at interims, no reason why negotiated resolution should not happen.

400k?
That is the amount they want to recover from that already paid...

What about the $4.5m earnout?

[momentos] 23/11/2006 11:01

Pingu:

"Try looking at Moda differently."

How did they get it for next to nothing?

USD5.5m is not nothing!

What did they pay?

Possibly USD5m, less 800k (GBP400k equiv.)

What did they get?

Er, a borderline profitable company sourcing and distributing $20m of Ungaro Menswear in the US. An angle into US retailers for other brands. Hands on the Ungaro Homme brand for the UK. A company whose cost base they could substantially reduce by using their own existing product design, sourcing and admin functions.

What remains?

No idea what you mean! Settlement of the final purchase price. If thats what you mean!

[momentos] 23/11/2006 10:55

They are separate issues to address. The success of the company depends on

1. Leveraging the supplier relationships they have in the UK to replace YSL sales with Ungaro sales.

2. Turning Moda America to profit (even on current $20m turnover) by creating cost efficiencies.

3. Expanding the revenue from JCC by increased license deals and sales.

As far as I can see they are doing 3 pretty well, 2 - tba but looks promising, 1 - we have an indication from that this is starting to take.

Moda and JCC should turn a profit this year and going forwards. Ungaro in UK is the big question.

But undeniably the base is there for growth. If Ungaro US starts turning $50m, profit will be substantial. Ungaro could grow to £30m - YSL came from near booger all in 2002, read back through the results. JCC is starting to bubble, the French press say it is his comeback year.

Who gives a toss about a potential little argument over 400k on the purchase of Moda, which there is no indication of turning legal? Payment was only 2 months over at interims, no reason why negotiated resolution should not happen.

[pingi] 23/11/2006 10:49

Try looking at Moda differently.

How did they get it for next to nothing?

What did they pay?

What did they get?

What remains?

[pingi] 23/11/2006 10:47

IG still closed to new positions.

Normally the deal button is replaced with a closed button... not for MPH... not seen this before.

[pingi] 23/11/2006 10:43

momentos... are you not too involved in the detail?

Turnover/profits/cash... I care not from which country/brand/channel they come from. They have to be there and growing before I look at the detail.

You seem to think Ungaro solves the YSL UK black hole on its own and Moda is to be thought of as an additional bonus.

Separate issues... not really.

'Why should Moda get messy, the issue as I see it is asset valuations, the deal is otherwise complete. At some stage the price will be agreed, possibly by use of a third party, and the issue will be closed.'

Third party... AKA the legal system... issue closure... not any time soon if this prevails.

[momentos] 23/11/2006 10:28

Pingi, of course it is not.

Marchpole has existing relations with UK retailers, Debenhams, John Lewis, Moss, independents etc. It is trying to sell its existing product, rebranded from YSL to Ungaro to these retailers. This is not Moda.

Marchpole now has an additional distribution channel into the US through Moda. It will continue to sell Ungaro in the US, and also sell JCC & Homebody.

Separate issues really.

Why should Moda get messy, the issue as I see it is asset valuations, the deal is otherwise complete. At some stage the price will be agreed, possibly by use of a third party, and the issue will be closed.

[cr4zyness] 23/11/2006 10:28

Space,

If you care to look into tomorrows issue you will see the article, I have access to the Internet site, apologies expected tomorrow, regards

[spaceparallax] 23/11/2006 10:20

CR4,

Have you been meddling with that time machine again? Be careful that you don't get lost in hyperspace!