Melrose Industries Share Discussion Threads

[gettingrichslow] 14/10/2018 19:56

Ok, it's all a matter of opinion but I believe that the directors will have done their homework on all those points. I have no good reason to doubt their judgement and many reasons to believe they will have assessed it thoroughly and made the right call. Of all the directors I've ever trusted my money with, and that covers a long time period, I'd put them in the top handful in terms of judgement.

[hvs] 14/10/2018 19:43

The general state of the economy and the huge pension deficit. The other thing is they overpaid. Just my opinion. I am glad that that you have made money here in the past I just think more downside ahead.

We shall see as i donot have crystal ball just experience.

[gettingrichslow] 14/10/2018 19:37

Fair enough but give us a bit more insight into your thinking - what in particular do you consider made it bad timing?

[hvs] 14/10/2018 19:29

No but the is history and its the past we does our best for the future. Forget the past because everthing changes and evolves and we has to adapt accordingly.

Dont get me wrong here I just think and my opinion only that buying GKN was very very bad timing. We shall see what happens next.

[gettingrichslow] 14/10/2018 19:26

Can you predict the future accurately hvs?

[hvs] 14/10/2018 19:04

Its the future stupid.

[gettingrichslow] 14/10/2018 18:57

"The executives seriously kill returns"

Really? What is average return on MRO in last 15 years?

[hvs] 14/10/2018 18:44

It used to make tank air conditioning for the army maybe still doing it as we is always fighting in the desert.

[minerve] 14/10/2018 18:43

What else does it do?

[jackdaw4243] 14/10/2018 18:40

Minerve

I did and it is, fact.

[minerve] 14/10/2018 18:36

"GKN is not about cars its bigger than that"

Who said it was?

For a start the executives seriously kill returns - get rid of them, save shareholders over £100M.

[hvs] 14/10/2018 18:31

Which parts ???? The pension deficit ????

[jackdaw4243] 14/10/2018 18:29

GKN is not about cars its bigger than that. "Sum of the parts"

[minerve] 14/10/2018 17:34

Quite right Losos.


That BBC article was nonsense. Families carry loads of gear in the car. They are not suddenly going to start carrying stuff on their backs because vehicles become autonomous.

I don't understand this stupid thinking that all because a vehicle is autonomous it will take away the need for one car (at least) for one family. Cities are a different thing altogether, but generally no. Nonsense.

The other thing is companies are not going to have capital sat on the road-side for days on end waiting for use in rural areas. Return on capital would be absolute sh*te. Not happening. Sorry.

[gettingrichslow] 14/10/2018 17:30

Losos, totally agree that it's not going to happen everywhere, and to be fair to the author he does say at the end that he has written it in a deliberately provocative way to stimulate debate, but I think the point is that there could still be a pronounced effect even if only 1/4 of what he predicts happens. Fewer vehicles lasting far longer seems inevitable.

[poikka] 14/10/2018 17:27

You know, Meanwhile, i'm nearly fully invested, but I've got a wad coming in shortly from a take-away. Not an ideal place to be in the current environment, but I've learnt to stick with it over the decades and enjoy the divis - aside from the odd nervous twitch hitting a sell button.


I'll certainly look at it every now and then, as I do, but doubt that this'll tempt me for a year or so.


Does Trumpy reckon that China's just too much of a problem country, and is he out to cause it to implode? Big thinking, but that's what he's good at. Hmmm.

[meanwhile] 14/10/2018 17:17

Poikka,

When you get to the wings and there's nothing much there, you just turn yourself round and get yourself back.

[poikka] 14/10/2018 16:50

Car sales down some 12% in China can't have helped the sp, not to mention car sales elsewhere. Then there's the state of a market into which they might want to flog bits of companies that they no longer want. A lot of money/shares have been made on this, and a lot of folk don't want to lose that gain. I think that it's referred to as profit-taking, lol.


Me, I'm just grateful for MRO taking my GKN shares when they did, and v glad that I had the good sense not to take MRO shares in exchange.


Strolls off into the wings whistling....

[jackdaw4243] 14/10/2018 12:08

There are also some impressive bits in GKN Aerospace including Fokker. Not the Messerschmidt Fokker the real Fokker.

[gettingrichslow] 14/10/2018 11:40

I wonder to what extent the big slide in car sales is a factor here? The extent of the fall around the world seems to have taken most observers by surprise. I'd also be interested in sensible views on the BBC website article 'Why you have probably already bought your last car' which, even if you don't buy some of the arguments is definitely thought provoking!

[meanwhile] 14/10/2018 11:04

jack,
I think that Melrose have always been very restrained in promoting their progress and I suppose this can lead to shareholder boredom between acquisitions & disposals. I recall this boredom setting in before the Elster acquisition and in a period after the disposal of Elster, before Nortek. The current fall may be no more than due to this.

In the case of old GKN holders, less keen on Melrose's style, they may have hung on for some big boost from the 1st set of figures but when it didn't come, have now given up.

Big developments at Melrose generally come out of the blue. There could be something much bigger on the cards than that minnow business mentioned in the press or the powder metallurgy.
I wouldn't be at all surprised by a disposal of the Automotive business, where they appointed a new chief recently.

[jackdaw4243] 14/10/2018 10:09

MW
The rational for buying GKN was that it was undervalued and that after reorganisation and management cull selling off the parts value would be unlocked. So I hope GKN is still worth what they paid for it and more. The reason for this downturn escapes me unless on opening the GKN box that value is not there.

[meanwhile] 13/10/2018 20:40

I think it's time, for me at least, to take a more positive view of MRO shares, (with certain reservations of course), now that the shares have fallen 20-25%.
The reservations are that the market as a whole holds fairly steady, no new skeletons are unearthed and the pound doesn't appreciate too much.
With MRO now at 170p, the price paid for GKN equates to around 370p, which now looks a bargain given that this was close to the GKN average market price over the preceding few years up to the bid.
The businesses which were in GKN at the time of the bid are still there and still just as saleable. The Nortek businesses are also ready to sell on. Net debt is manageable at around £3.5B, given the size of the company, same for the pension deficit.
I've previously, in the last 10 years or so, seen substantial falls in the MRO price for no apparent reason and this may be just another example. MRO shareholders have always been prone to boredom and the GKN holders taken on in the acquisition will have been similarly disappointed by the apparent lack of rapid progress. I hope the sell-off is due largely to this.
If this is the case, a biggish disposal will put a bit of wind in the sails.

Of course, I could be completely wrong.

[gettingrichslow] 12/10/2018 21:56

Evening MW, what was the 'look at my wealth' statement you're referring to? I don't consider myself to be particularly well off - out of 22 of us just returned from Vegas I reckon I was in bottom quartile - but at the same time, I don't consider a NED's salary to be particularly big if that's what you're referring to?